NFL Week 6 Betting Odds And Advice
That crash you heard last Sunday was not the Eagles and Bills losing for the first time and leaving no undefeated NFL teams remaining into NFL Week 6 action. But rather NFL Survivor players wondering WTF happened as the Cardinals blew it and another WTF moment dropping the ball before crossing the goal line as the Titans picked up their first win of the season in a shocker at Arizona, 22-21. Combined with the Rams losing at home to the dismantled 49ers Thursday night and the Bills falling at home to the Patriots Sunday night, two big contests lost a high-percentage of entries in Week 5.
NFL Contests
I talked to Circa Resort Las Vegas owner and huge sports and betting enthusiast Derek Stevens at this week's Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas. The Circa Sports NFL Circa Survivor contest lost 60% of the remaining entries in the $18 million winner-take-all NFL Survivor contest in Week 5. More than 7,700 entries were eliminated in Week 5 leaving 4,646 remaining of the 18,718 original entries. 
Along with the Circa Million VII $6 million guarantee contest (5 NFL picks ATS each week) that has seen very poor top-5 consensus weekly picks results, Circa also added a third contest this year, a high-roller NFL Survivor 'Grandissimo' with a $100,000 entry.
"The demand was far greater than our expectations," Stevens said with 69 entries from early projections less than 20. Just 16 entries remain after 25 were eliminated with the Cardinals and Rams in Week 6. The winner-take-all will capture the $6.9 million top prize, if no split is made with a handful of entries remaining.
Circa will have an announcement soon about another NHL team partnership agreement which Derek mentioned to me. Circa Sports is currently a jersey patch sponsor of the Vegas Golden Knights.
BetOnline's NFL Survivor continues and the data research and marketing team passed along that 11,254 Survivor entries were busted and eliminated in Week 5, which was nearly 1/3 of the starting pool of players (35,498). The Cardinals and Rams both had more than 20% of the entries picks, and the Bills were also a key loser. 
"Week 5 was the perfect storm of upsets as 61% of the participants picked either the Rams, Cardinals or Bills. The week was especially tough for players who were eliminated from the BetOnline $1 Million Survivor contest, but then entered the $150k 2nd Chance Survivor contest after the Sunday afternoon games only to pick Buffalo and lose."
Bettors will be lining up on road favorites again with six to choose from, including the Thursday night feature on Philadelphia at New York Giants, one of just two division games. A Monday night doubleheader includes the road favorite Bills battling the Falcons in Atlanta with leading online sportsbooks adjusting odds.
NFL home underdogs are just 9-19-1 SU and 12-17 ATS this season. But underdogs overall were very good in Week 5 going 9-5 ATS with all nine winning outright.
Check out the NFL Week 5 top player performances, profiles and PFF grades as you evaluate stats, matchups, tips, totals and teasers including player props into Week 6.
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NFL Week 6 Odds
Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites as of Monday night plus game totals, and division games in bold.
- Philadelphia (-7.5) at New York Giants, 42 (Thursday)
- Denver (-7) vs. New York Jets, 43.5 (London)
- Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-5), 38
- Arizona at Indianapolis (-6.5), 47.5
- Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Baltimore, 45
- Seattle at Jacksonville (-1.5), 45
- Dallas (-3.5) at Carolina, 49.5
- Los Angeles Chargers (-4) at Miami, 43
- New England (-3.5) at New Orleans, 46
- Tennessee at Las Vegas (-4.5), 41.5
- San Francisco at Tampa Bay (-3), 47.5
- Cincinnati at Green Bay (-14), 44.5
- Detroit at Kansas City (-2.5), 50.5 (Sunday Night)
- Buffalo (-4.5) at Atlanta, 48.5 (Monday)
- Chicago at Washington (-4.5), 50 (Monday)
Notable line moves from last week's lookahead lines includes Colts from -3.5 to -6.5, Raiders -6.5 to -4.5 and Bills -5.5 to -3.5.
Scoring is up to 47.1 points per game this season after NFL Week 5 averaged 49.3 points per game following the Jaguars 31-28 come-from-behind stumbling, bumbling touchdown and win over the Chiefs Monday night.
Bet on NFL Football Week 6 at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!
Game Totals
Seahawks-Jaguars - Over
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold had a record day in defeat last Sunday as he and Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield put on a passing clinic in Tampa Bay's 35-38 road win. The Seahawks piled up 463 yards offense at a week-high 8.6 yards per play with Darnold completing 28-of-34 passes for 341 yards and 4 TDs. 
Eight of those completions went to WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had 132 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. The Jaguars improved offense and play-calling came through Monday night with 5.9 yards per play against the Chiefs better defense to rally and win 31-28. But Jacksonville's defense allowed a week-high 478 yards to the Chiefs at 7.6 yards per play. That included 318 passing by Patrick Mahomes. You can bet on another high-scoring game and plenty of passing success. Pick: Over
Jacksonville leads the NFL in takeaways (14), turnover margin (+8), and points off turnovers (47) through five weeks - a major turnaround from last year when they were among the very worst in those categories.
Lions-Chiefs - Over
Had this one ready to go only to see it move up to 50.5, and now 52.5 after a notable NFL analyst, analytics expert and pick seller released 'over' the total. Here are some highlights, stats and notes with thoughts on the line move.
The Lions defense is decimated with cluster injuries, and another player (CB Arnold) went down with injury in last Sunday's 37-24 win at Cincinnati. Detroit's defense allowed 251 passing yards and 3 TD passes by Jake Browning in his best game of the season. 
Now both Lions top-2 cornerbacks are out vs. the Chiefs, who have the NFL's No. 1 highest pass rate in the games first three quarters. Kansas City blew a 14-point lead vs. the Jaguars in Monday's 31-28 loss to drop KC to 2-3, and they won't let up this week against a depleted Lions defense that has faced four offenses that rank bottom 5 in early down efficiency and overall Detroit's defense has faced the No. 1 easiest schedule of offenses. The Lions (4-1) have won four straight games and lead the league in scoring.
Kansas City's defense ranks bottom-3 against play action in yards per pass, EPA/attempt and success rate. The Lions use play action at the No. 1 highest rate in the NFL on early downs (45%) with a league-best EPA (+0.33) and yards per pass attempt (8.8). Four of the five Chiefs opponents this season rank bottom-quartile in pass efficiency offense with the Lions No. 1 pass unit attacking in all levels with WR's, TE's and RB's out of the backfield. 
The Lions also attack the outside zone with their talented RB's Gibbs and Montgomery, and the Chiefs rank near the bottom vs. outside zone in EPA/rush, yards per attempt, yards before contact and success rate. Detroit ranks top-5 in red zone offense and the Chiefs three recent opponents all rank bottom quartile in red zone offense. With a sharp move upward and missing the best number, we'll provide an Opinion on the game total 'over', and you can wager more if you're in agreement with an expected high-scoring shootout and projection for most yardage in this contest for Week 6. Opinion: Over
Opinions - Eagles/Giants Under (Thursday). Check back for more Friday
Teasers
Seahawks, Saints, Lions, Falcons, Rams (following injury check, Ravens ravaged by injuries, QB Jackson).
Along with our weekly NFL tips, totals and teasers, check back for any additions plus more picks, props and parlays the end of the week and into Saturday. Player props are on a 11-0 run in NFL Weeks 3-5 with improvement hopefully ahead on picks following 57% ATS picking and posting only NFL underdogs from 2017-2023 at Off Shore Gaming Association.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.
