A handicapping breakdown of the Five Breeders' Cup races on Friday

The 2026 Breeders' Cup takes place at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky, with five juvenile championship races scheduled for Friday. Last year Cy Fair broke a long string of European horses winning all the turf races on the Friday Juvenile Day and this year there appears to be some other North American horses that can challenge the Europeans as well. There is no adverse weather in the forecast for Friday or Saturday and the temps will be around 70 degrees with a few clouds which will make it a comfortable day for horses, jockeys and fans alike. I've been providing predictions, analysis and picks for every race in the Breeders' Cup for eight years here at OSGA and look forward to these races every year. With that in mind, here is my analysis and picks for the 2-year-old races on Friday.

Analysis and picks for the 2-year-old races on Friday

Juvenile Turf Sprint Analysis

The Breeders' Cup starts off with one of the most difficult races to handicap. Twelve horses and five also eligibles are in the field and the race is packed with speed. Libertango is the luke-warm morning line favorite and comes to Keeneland with three wins and 2 seconds in England, including a near miss in a Group 1 race at Newmarket. Her racing style has her sitting just off the pace which could be crucial in a field that has a lot of speed. Her win in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot was very impressive and all her races have been on good-fast turf courses so she should handle the Keeneland turf well. Brickyard Belle appears to be her main contender. A filly as well, she is undefeated in two starts including an incredible win an the Grade 3 Matron at Belmont where she posted a time of 1:08 1/5 second and a 97 Beyer figure. She is a closer which could be crucial if the speed is as fast as expected and she won by over 4 lengths in her maiden victory at Saratoga in a great time as well. Force Noir won impressively in Ireland and just missed in a Grade 2 to a budding superstar horse, although Hell of a Spin was well behind him. It seems Force Noir prefers a softer turf which will be a problem if there is no rain in Kentucky this week. Final Objective won a Group 2 race at Doncaster in September and just missed in a Group 2 race at York a bit earlier in the year. He has a running style that can be important here. Harper’s Corner seems to be the fastest starter in the race and will no doubt try to win wire-to-wire. She set a blistering pace in that Grade 2 race won by Brickyard Belle and it was his first try on turf, so that may help this time around as she will now be more familiar with the ground. Primetime Emmy ships in from France and has jockey Mickael Barzalona, so she can’t be discounted. The outside post could be her biggest obstacle. Moonrise will challenge Harper’s Corner for the lead and will likely set a fast pace but if the pace is slow enough she could steal it on the front end. She was beaten pretty soundly by Libertango, however. Good to Be King comes here off a win in the Belmont Futurity after a layoff and can’t be discounted either. If Adonius draws in from the also eligibles then he needs to be considered as well.

Juvenile Turf Sprint Prediction: Winner: Brickyard Belle (3/1) Second Choice: Libertango (5/2). Long Shot Possibility: Good to Be King (12/1)

Juvenile Fillies Handicapping Analysis

A race where favorites usually excel, there are two horses that seem to be way ahead of the others and that is reflected in the odds.

Emphatic is the morning line favorite and won the Alcibiades at this track in a time that gave her a 95 Beyer figure, easily the best in the field. Prior to that she defeated Revenge of the Sis by over 5 lengths at Monmouth and in total she’s won her three races by a combined 13 lengths. Miss Monica seems to be Emphatic’s biggest threat after winning her maiden race by over five lengths at Del Mar and then winning the Del Mar Futurity by an expanding 6 lengths. This will be her first race around two turns and while Bob Baffert trained horses have won 21 times at the Breeders' Cup, including Immersive who won this race by over 4 lengths at Del Mar, Baffert has struggled a bit in the Breeders' Cup at other tracks. Explora came second for Baffert in this race last year. Domain Expansion seems to be the biggest threat to the two favorites. She won the Oak Leaf Stakes by seven lengths as a longshot last time at Santa Anita and, unlike Miss Monica, that was at this race’s distance. In her maiden race she finished second despite getting bumped and having a lot of traffic trouble. Lexi’s Charm won here by 12 lengths in an allowance race and posted a 90 Beyer, which is the second best in the race, only behind Emphatic. She won’t be able to get the same fractions here and it is uncertain how she will handle two turns. Manuka Honey is 3-for-3 including an impressive win at Churchill Downs in a Grade 3 race, however the fractions were slow. So, unless she was holding back and can run faster, it’s hard to see her winning streak continue. Voyager has two wins but they were both on the turf including most recently a Grade 1 race at Woodbine in Toronto. In her two races on dirt she finished ok including a five length defeat to Harper’s Corner, who is running in the Juvenile Sprint and I just don’t see her being that competitive on dirt here against the two big favorites. Mark Casse probably should have taken his chances in the Juvenile Fillies Turf instead.

Juvenile Fillies Prediction: Emphatic (9/5) Second Choice: Miss Monica  (5/2) Long Shot Possibility: None

Juvenile Fillies Turf Betting Analysis

As with the previous race, two horses seem to tower over the others - Sun Goddess and Amusingly.

Sun Goddess has had a busy two-year-old campaign for Aidan O’Brien, running eight times in 2026, including six wins and two seconds. Her only losses were early in her career, including a narrow defeat to Libertango, who is the favorite in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. She’s beaten Green Empress, who has the rail for this race, on three separate occasions. If there’s one knock against Sun Goddess it’s that she’s never run more than six furlongs, so the extra two furlongs for this race is untested. But her racing style suggests she’ll handle it. Amusingly seems to be her biggest challenger. She defeated colts on Arc Day at Longchamp in France closing with a fury. And in a Group 2  race prior to that at this race’s distance, she narrowly lost. She won her maiden race easily too. Her stable, Juddmonte, has a good record at the Breeders' Cup. Domestic Agenda will be the biggest test for the two European horses. She’s undefeated in two races, including a four length victory at Belmont in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes, earning a 90 Beyer figure. Prior to that she won her maiden at Saratoga in a hard fought battle. Trainer Chad Brown always has horses that are a threat and top jockey Flavien Pratt helps too. Curracloe has two wins in two starts in Ireland including the Group 3 Darley Stakes, but she has yet to run on a firm turf and has not run a race of this distance. Serena’s Ghost is also two-for-two, including a win in a Grade 2 race at Keeneland last time out. Her Beyer figures, however, are well below Domestic Agenda and her times do not appear they will be competitive with the European horses. Alwaysanangel was third behind Sun Goddess and Libertango in her last race at Newmarket and was third in a Group 2 race, narrowly losing to Libertango in that one. She is a very good closer so will need a blistering pace to have any chance and it’s just hard to see that happening here. Vanta is undefeated in California but like Serena’s Ghost it seems she just isn’t fast enough to compete with the favorites here. Citrus Springs is the most intriguing of the longshots. She is the clear front runner in this race and after breaking her maiden by five lengths in Ireland, she came to the United States and pressed the leader before winning by a head at Kentucky Downs, earning an 83 speed figure. If the field lets her control the pace she could pull off a major upset.

Juvenile Fillies Turf Prediction: Winner: Amusingly (7/2), Second Choice: Sun Goddess (6/5) Long Shot Possibility: Citrus Springs (15/1)

Juvenile Analysis and Picks

Eight horses will be running in the Juvenile and there appears to be one standout.

Hughes, trained by Bob Baffert, is four-for-four, winning by a combined 24 lengths. The California horse won the Best Pal by over seven lengths, then the Del Mar Futurity by over four lengths and most recently the American Pharoah Stakes by six lengths. Hughes posted a 100 Beyer figure in that race, clearly marking him as the best horse in this field. American History is two-for-two, including an impressive come from behind victory at this track in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity, earning an 80 Beyer figure, signaling he may not be as fast as Hughes. Prior to that American History earned a figure under 80 for his maiden win. Todd Pletcher, along with Baffert, are the two most successful trainers in the Breeders' Cup. Coach Pope was favored in that race against American History and battled him all through the stretch just losing at the wire by a length. Prior to that race, Coach Pope broke his maiden by over 12 lengths earning a Beyer figure of 86. He’ll be on the lead and will need an incredibly slow pace to have a chance. Gaudreau beat Coach Pope to win his maiden race and then lost by six and a half lengths to U.S.S. Valor in the Champagne Stakes. Until his trainer decided to scratch U.S.S. Valor for this race, it was shaping up to be a classic match race facing East Coast vs. West Coast, similar to the Easy Goer vs. Sunday Silence classic showdown from 1989. U.S.S. Valor scored a 95 figure in the Champagne which puts Gaudreau’s rating in the mid 80s. Salahudin is undefeated in three races racing at Ellis Park and Churchill Downs with his last race a hard fought battle in the Iroquois Stakes. Coach Pope was almost a second faster than Salahudin breaking his maiden, so it seems Salahudin is a cut below, despite the undefeated record.

Juvenile Prediction: Winner: Hughes (1/1) Second Choice: Gaudreau (8/1)  Long Shot Possibility: None

Juvenile Turf Handicapping Analysis

How’s Al Today is the morning line favorite after winning his only two turf races at Kentucky Downs by four lengths each earning Beyer speed figures of 90 and 94 in each of those wins. American horses have not fared well in this race but he may be an exception. Folsom Blues ships in from Europe where he won a Group 1 race fairly easily in Ireland and just lost out prior to that to Sun Goddess who as mentioned earlier is the heavy favorite for the Juvenile Filly Turf. In his last race on Arc Day at Longchamp in France he was a close second to Amusingly who is my pick to win the Juvenile Fillies Turf. It appears she prefers a softer turf which could be a negative for her as the turf should be firm. Great Barrier Reef draws the outside post for Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore. He likes to be near the lead so the post could hurt as he’ll have to run hard to get to the front. He started his career with three straight victories and looked like something special, but he lost by a neck in a Group 3 race at the Curragh and then was a well beaten third in Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. Haffner also runs for Aidan O’Brien and Christophe Soumillon has the mount signaling that Ryan Moore thinks Great Barrier Reef is the better horse. Haffner has three wins and two seconds with Ryan Moore aboard most of those rides but he was soundly beaten by Folsom Blues in his sole Group 1 race that was run on a yielding turf. He also seems to like to be near the lead so will need a very slow pace. Avec Toi was four for four before being soundly beat by Amusingly and Folsom Blues in a Group 1 race where he made no impression. The one thing he has going for him is jockey Flavien Pratt. Man’s Best Friend is the third Aidan O’Brien horse in the race and closes with a fury losing to Amusingly and Folsom Blues in the race that has been mentioned. If he can run back to the race in the Richmond or if the pace kills the front runners he can pull off the upset. Colin Keane is the jockey for this race. Agate was beaten pretty badly by How’s Al Today but came back to win a Group 2 at Keeneland closing fast. The outside post will hurt his chances as well although since he closes it won’t be as big a problem as it will be for Great Barrier Reef. Florida Bay is the last Aidan O’Brien horse in the race and though he did beat Folsom Blues earlier this year, he was beaten pretty soundly by him in the last two races.

Juvenile Turf Prediction: Winner: How’s Al Today (3/1) Second Choice: Man’s Best Friend (15/1). Long Shot Possibility: Agate (10/1)

Check back tomorrow for Hartley's betting tips and picks for the Breeders' Cup Saturday races.

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