Preview and Pick for Eagles-Packers on MNF
Two top NFC contenders headline the NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football feature as the Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) tackle the Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) at Lambeau Field in a rematch of last season's Wild Card game and a potential playoff preview in a few months.
I chip-in some coverage with added player props and information you can bet on below following Sunday's 1-1 player props results in Week 10 on our picks, parlays and props.
Eagles-Packers Odds And Props
Packers: -1
Total: 45.5
I have no side or total pick or opinion, but did add the Eagles to our teasers after going 4-0 on teasers so far in Week 10 and 1-1 on totals opinions on our Week 10 tips, totals, teasers and trends. The Packers are down from -2.5 to -1 on game day.
Check the NFL weather in Green Bay with freezing temperatures in the 20's temps, light winds 5-7 mph, but snow no longer in the forecast Monday night.
Stats plus betting angles
The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a non-division road underdog. The Eagles enter off a bye week, and despite a 6-2 record and clear lead in the NFC East, Philly's offense is in the bottom quartile of the league averaging 304 yards per game and an average 5.3 yards per play. With a 5.4 yards per play defense, the Eagles have a -0.1 yards per play differenital. The Packers 5.9 yppl offense is top 5 and 4.6 yards per play defense top-3 giving them one of the best yards per play differentials at +1.3 and a +1.4 edge in this matchup against the Eagles. Under head coach Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 31-20 SU and 31-19-1 ATS against .500-plus teams, and 28-30 ATS versus lesser opponents.
Packers top TE Tucker Kraft was having a breakout year until his season-ending ACL injury last week. The Packers offense was averaging 6.0 yards per play with him on the field, but they have averaged 5.1 yards per play (24th) with a 38.9% success rate (29th) without him. Green Bay is missing their two best pass catchers in space without Kraft and WR Jayden Reed.
Philadelphia has converted a league-high 85% (17 of 20) of its red zone trips into touchdowns and is a perfect 12 of 12 on goal-to-go trips into touchdowns.
Player Props
Packers RB Josh Jacobs - 4+ receptions (+162)
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith - Over 4.5 receptions
The vig for victory over 2.5 receptions on Josh Jacobs is heavy, and now 3+ receptions is also -145. So take the big plus price for Jacobs to fill the void in receptions without Kraft in the lineup. Packers QB Jordan Love is sensitive to pressure, completing a league-low 37.7% of his passes for 4.7 Y/A (32nd) with a 0% touchdown rate. He'll hit Jacobs on quick, short screens. If he is kept clean on more plays, know that Love leads the league with an 85.5% completion rate, is second in yards per attempt (9.9 Y/A), and seventh with a 7.5% touchdown rate with a clean pocket.
Josh Jacobs has scored a touchdown in 19 of his past 20 games, and he'll be a popular anytime scorer. We're shooting for more pass receptions.
The Packers will likely double-zone WR A.J. Brown more. DeVonta Smith can take advantage in the slot against a weaker defender, and Smith is the Eagles best receiver in yards per route run and against Cover 3, which the Packers run more often.
Check out the Week 11 betting lines at BetOnline along with my early look at the three biggest division games with information you can bet on.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.
You can bet on it.
