March Madness Betting Preview: East and West Region No. 3, 4 and 5 Seeds

March Madness is set to tipoff, and the teams just below Duke and Connecticut as No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the East along with Arizona and Purdue in the West will provide plenty of quality watch and wager action. The No. 3, 4 and 5 seeds in the East have been ranked in the AP Top 25 all season, and will be solid challengers in the brackets. 

Perennial top Big Ten performer Michigan State along with Big East champion St. John's and annual Big 12 power Kansas provide tournament-ready profiles and stats with quality coaching to win and advance through the East Region of the NCAA Tournament 2026 brackets. Gonzaga, Arkansas and Wisconsin are the 3-5 seeds in the West who will try to challenge top seeds Arizona and Purdue. 

Top Coaches

Beyond the top teams in the strongest East Region, four national champion and Hall of Fame coaches are leading their teams in Dan Hurley (No. 2 UConn), Tom Izzo (No. 3 Michigan State), Bill Self (No. 4 Kansas), Rick Pitino (No. 5 St. John’s) and the top-overall seed in the tournament Duke with coach Jon Scheyer. 

More NCAA Tournament 2026 stats, contests, profiles of a national champion, keys to NCAA Tournament success and opening round odds with additional information you can bet on is part of my top seeds coverage in the East and West Regions at OSGA. 

No. 3, 4, 5 Seeds East Region

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans

Record: 25-7
Key Wins: Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Iowa, Illinois, UCLA, Purdue, Ohio State
Key Losses: Duke, Michigan (2x), Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA
National Title Odds: +5000
Final Four Odds: +800
KenPom Strength of Schedule: 21
KenPom Stats: Adjusted Offense No. 24, Defense No. 13
X: @MSU_Basketball
Head Coach: Tom Izzo

Michigan State is playing in its 28th consecutive NCAA Tournament, extending the longest NCAA Tournament streak in Big Ten history. The Spartans were the last Big Ten team to win the national title in 2000. More Big Ten stats profiles are outlined in the Big Ten Tournament preview and includes Michigan State as a top-tier FG% defense and the top rebounding team in the Big Ten. 

Michigan State (-16.5) opens the NCAA Tournament against No. 14 North Dakota State in Buffalo, NY. The winner plays the 6/11 winner between Louisville (-5) and South Florida. 

North Dakota State won the Summit League regular season and tournament title. The Bison scored 82 points per game on 49% FG and 39% 3-point shots with a league-best 71 ppg defense. The Bison led the Summit League in rebounding and steals, but did not play any team from a Power 5 conference and had a 282 Strength of Schedule with KenPom offensive efficiency of 124 and defensive efficiency also 124.   

No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks

Record: 23-10
Key Wins: Tennessee, NC State, TCU (2x), Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Arizona, Houston 
Key Losses: North Carolina, Duke, UCONN, Iowa State, Arizona, Houston
National Title Odds: +1700
Final Four Odds: +1400
KenPom Strength of Schedule: 1 
KenPom Stats: Adjusted Offense No. 57, Defense No. 10
X: @KUHoops
Head Coach: Bill Self 

Kansas played the toughest schedule in the country, according to KenPom net ratings, including the No. 1 SOS of defenses. Losses to Duke, Arizona, Houston and UConn, along with wins over Arizona and Houston, show the Jayhawks can battle with the best teams, and especially with their defensive profile and 1st team All-Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Flory Bidunga (13.8 ppg, 9 rpb, 3 blocks/game). Star freshman guard Darryn Peterson (20 ppg, 4.2 rpg) missed 11 games with cramping and hamstring issues, but the future NBA top pick is the Jayhawks top scorer. 

Kansas (-14.5) opens the NCAA Tournament against No. 13 Cal Pabtist in San Diego. The winner plays the 5/12 winner between St. John's (-12) and Northern Iowa. Cal Pabtist won the WAC Tournament and played three Big 12 teams this season, losing by 6 and 8 points to Utah and Colorado, and blown out by 29 points vs. BYU. 

No. 5 St. John's Red Storm

Record: 28-6
Key Wins:  Ole Miss, Villanova (2x), UCONN (2x) 
Key Losses: Alabama, Iowa State, Kentucky, UCONN
National Title Odds: +4000
Final Four Odds: +1000
KenPom Strength of Schedule: 43 
KenPom Stats: Adjusted Offense No. 44, Defense No. 12
X: @StJohnsBBall
Head Coach: Rick Pitino 

St. John's won the Big East regular season and conference tournament titles. The Red Storm strength on defense is their Big East Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Scholar-Athlete of the Year, senior forward Zuby Ejiofor (16.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.0 blocks).

St. John's (-12) opens the NCAA Tournament against No. 12 Northern Iowa in San Diego. The winner plays the 4/13 winner between Kansas (-14.5) and Cal Baptist. Northern Iowa finished 6th in the Missouri Valley but won the conference tournament after leading the league in scoring defense (61.3 ppg), FG% defense (40.7%) and 3-point defense (28.5%) with the best assist/turnover ratio in the valley.  

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No. 3, 4, 5 Seeds West Region

No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 30-3
Key Wins: Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, UCLA, Santa Clara (3x), St. Mary's, 
Key Losses: Michigan, St. Mary's
National Title Odds: +4500
Final Four Odds: +650
KenPom Strength of Schedule: 87
KenPom Stats: Adjusted Offense No. 29, Defense No. 9
X: @ZagsMBB
Head Coach: Mark Few 

Gonzaga won the West Coast Conference regular season title, and then won the WCC Tournament for the 12th time in the past 14 years. The Zags move to the re-vamped Pac-12 next season, but this year’s team will go as far as WCC Player of the Year power forward Graham Ike can take them. He’s a top scorer (19.7) and rebounder (8.7), but the Bulldogs have been without injured forward Braden Huff since mid-Jan. (knee). His earliest return is the Sweet Sixteen, if the Zags make the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Despite 30 wins this season, this is not a dominate Zags team. While they average 85 points per game, Gonzaga has only eclipsed 80 points in one of their last six contests, and all finished under the total.

Gonzaga led the WCC in turnover margin and assist/turnover ratio while outscoring all opponents by an average of 16.5 points per game. But recall the Zags were blown out in Las Vegas early season by Michigan in the Players Era Championship, a game I saw in person. My thoughts are this Gonzaga team is one of the weaker top 5 seeds in the tournament who also got a favorable draw and bracket with opening round games in Portland. No shot if Gonzaga happens to get to the Elite Eight and face Arizona and coach Tommy Lloyd, Gonzaga's former longtime assistant under Mark Few. 

Gonzaga (-20.5) opens the NCAA Tournament against No. 14 Kennesaw State in Portland. The winner plays the 6/11 winner of the BYU vs NC State/Texas First Four game.

No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks

Record: 26-8
Key Wins: Louisville, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt (2x), Oklahoma (2x), Missouri (2x), Texas
Key Losses: Michigan State, Duke, Houston, Kentucky, Alabama, Florida,
National Title Odds: +3300
Final Four Odds: +950
KenPom Strength of Schedule: 10
KenPom Stats: Adjusted Offense No. 6, Defense No. 48
X: @RazorbackMBB
Head Coach: John Calipari 

Coach Calipari has the Hogs rolling into the NCAA Tournament scoring at least 86 points in 10 of their last 12 games and winning the SEC Tournament. A tie for second place finish in the SEC saw Arkansas also post a league-best 22 against the spread (ATS) wins this season heading into March Madness. Conference Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year Darius Acuff Jr. averaged  a league-high 22.2 points and 6.5 assists per game while shooting better than 48% FG and nearly 44% from the arc.

Fellow freshman guard  Meleek Thomas (15.7) is second on the team in scoring, and this team will push the tempo throughout. The Razorbacks averaged 89.9 ppg and league-best 50% FG and 39% from the arc. The defense was bottom tier in SEC field goal percentage, and in seven of their losses, Arkansas allowed 80, 94, 95, 90, 85, 117, and 111 points but still rank No. 48 overall in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and top 10 on offense. The Razorbacks were also second in the SEC in blocked shots and assist/turnover ratio, but below average in rebounding at +1.5 margin. 

Arkansas (-15.5) opens the NCAA Tournament against No. 13 Hawaii in Portland. The winner plays the 5/12 winner between Wisconsin (-10) and High Point. The Big West Tournament champion Hawaii turns the ball over too much, but the Rainbow Warriors grade out top 10 in defensive rebounding and top 30 in both 2-point and 3-point FG% defense with 7-footer Isaac Johnson inside as a rim protector.    

No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 24-10
Key Wins: UCLA, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois (2x), Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue 
Key Losses:  BYU, TCU, Nebraska, Villanova, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan  
National Title Odds: +3300
Final Four Odds: +1600
KenPom Strength of Schedule: 18
KenPom Stats: Adjusted Offense No. 11, Defense No. 51
X: @BadgerMBB
Head Coach: Greg Gard 

Wisconsin made the Sweet Sixteen in head coach Greg Gard’s first two seasons leading the Badgers. But Bucky Badgers has not returned since with five straight first weekend exits in the NCAA Tournament with four of those as a 3 or 5 seed. The Badgers offensive profile is strong ranking No. 11 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency with one of the lowest turnover rates in the country. 

Senior and junior guards Nick Boyd (20.1 ppg) and John Blackwell (18.3) lead the Badgers in scoring and 81+% free throw shooters as 2nd and 3rd team All-Big Ten performers. They helped Wisconsin to a Big Ten-best 11.7 made 3-pointers per game this season, and scored 25 and 26 ppg in three Big Ten Tournament games when the Badgers reached the semifinals before losing to Michigan 68-65. The three previous games, Wisconsin scored 97, 85 and 91 points with two of those victories over higher NCAA Tournament seeds Purdue and Illinois.  Missing those games and the last four overall was junior center Nolan Winter (13.3 ppg, 8.6 rpg), who is expected to return for the NCAA Tournament opening round.  Wisconsin’s defensive profile is sub-par allowing 76 ppg, 44.7% FG and a near even rebounding rate. 

Wisconsin (-10) opens the NCAA Tournament against No. 12 High Point in Portland. The winner plays the 4/13 winner between Arkansas (-15.5) and Hawii. High Point won 30 games and captured the Big South regular season and Tournament titles. But the Panthers played one of the worst schedules of any NCAA Tournament team while losing both games against Quad 2 opponents and no games against Quad 1 teams. 

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FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, writer, reporter and poker player. He's been covering major sports from a betting perspective for more than two decades from Las Vegas. FairwayJay is also on the scene for major sports and poker events plus industry conferences as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.