NFL Week 17 Prediction and Picks
The NFL Week 17 schedule kicked off with three Christmas Day games, and home underdogs went 3-0 ATS with one outright winner in the Vikings 23-10 win eliminating the Lions from playoff contention. 
Six turnovers by Detroit were the difference in defeat. I chip-in picks below on key games impacting the playoff picture as top teams push towards the playoffs and the No. 1 seed still up from grabs in the NFC and AFC along with division titles and home playoff games.
We added a player prop winner on QB Dak Prescott in the Cowboys Christmas Day win over the Commanders, 30-23 as part of our Week 17 tips, totals, teasers and trends report.
NFL Week 17 Odds
Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold with the first three games on Christmas Day (Thursday).
- Dallas (-8.5) at Washington, 50.5 - Cowboys win 30-23
- Detroit (-7.5) at Minnesota, 43 - Vikings win 23-10
- Denver (-13.5) at Kansas City, 36.5 - Broncos win 20-13
- Houston at LA Chargers (-1), 39.5 - Sat
- Baltimore at Green Bay (-4), 40.5 - Sat
- Arizona at Cincinnati (-7.5), 53
- Seattle (-7) at Carolina, 42
- Pittsburgh (-3) at Cleveland, 34
- New Orleans (-2.5) at Tennessee, 40
- Tampa Bay (-6) at Miami, 45.5
- Jacksonville (-6.5) at Indianapolis, 48.5
- New England (-13.5) at NY Jets, 43
- NY Giants (-1) at Las Vegas, 41.5
- Philadelphia at Buffalo (-1), 44
- Chicago at San Francisco (-3), 52.5 - SNF
- LA Rams (-9) at Atlanta, 50 - MNF
Check out more Week 17 injury reports, and monitor the NFL weather with rain in the forecast in a number of cities including Saturday in Green Bay, who has now clinched a playoff spot as they host the Baltimore Ravens at Lambeau Field.
NFL Week 17 Picks
- Picks: 49ers
- Opinions: Panthers, Steelers, Cardinals
3-team parlay: Cardinals, Steelers, 49ers
2-team 'Dog parlay: Panthers, Cardinals
Updated parlays Sunday with Chargers loss. Any additional game analysis and additional NFL news and information you can bet on will be added along with select stats ahead of Sunday's games. More playoff scenarios to watch as you wager on the games.
Update: Not a fan of laying road points, but home 'Dogs have struggled throughout this season and I'd bet on Aaron Rodgers over Shedeur Sanders if the game was played on the moon or the Steelers had 10 players on offense for half their plays. Okay, you understand, and despite the uptick in Sanders play, note that Steelers HC Tomlin is 27-6 ATS against rookie quarterbacks and the Steelers now need a win over the bumbling Browns to clinch the division or the AFC North will come down to next week's showdown between the Steelers and Ravens in Pittsburgh. The Steelers offense has come to life scoring 27, 28, 29 points their last three games, all wins including on the road to Baltimore and Detroit. Lose to the clueless Cleveland Browns?
Teams that hold edges in 3 or 4 of the four key defensive catetories have been a solid ATS bet the latter part of the season. I noted this previously for those matchups and teams sporting stronger yards per play defense, points against, yards per rush and total yards defense. That led us to a top pick on the San Francisco 49ers (11-4) this week, who have won 5-straight games by double-digits. The line has ticked up since we posted and the Bears (11-4) are now NFC North champions following the Packers loss Saturday. That's the same Bears who won 5-games last season including a 1-11 SU finish.
Some other teams sporting those defensive edges this week include the ugly 'Dogs Cardinals and Saints with Arizona also facing the league-worst defense of the Bengals as a big 'Dog. The Seahawks also fit those four parameters as a big road favorite at Carolina, and we played against the DES (Defensive Edge System) in that contest.
Philadelphia at Buffalo - The Super Bowl champions Eagles have secured the NFC East and not likely to get the No. 1 seed, so less to play for this week. But Philadelphia will be getting back All-Pro interior defender Jalen Carter and All-Pro RT Lane Johnson on Sunday. Buffalo’s offense has a 31% play action rate (4th-highest), and Philadelphia’s defense is surrendering 32% more yards per attempt against play action compared to standard dropbacks (30th).
December has been a winning month on both tips, totals and teasers plus picks, props and parlays following a 3-0 sweep in picks and opinions (plus a push) in Week 16. NFL picks and opinions are 14-7 ATS since Week 11 (7-2 picks). Game totals are 11-7 since Week 12 including 3-1 on top totals tips. Recall in 2023 our NFL underdog picks went 11-1 ATS with 9 outright winners in December to cap a 57% ATS run on posted NFL underdog picks at OSGA from 2017-2023, including a 70% ATS season in 2021 on all NFL underdog picks.
NFL Player Props
Check back for more following the Christmas Day winner on QB Dak Prescott.
Giants QB Jaxson Dart - Under 27.5 pass attempts (26.5 is + odds)
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.
