Michigan vs. Connecticut in college basketball National Championship Game

It's Michigan (36-3) vs. Connecticut (24-5) in the men's NCAA Tournament National Championship Game on April 6. My Final Four coverage and updates at Off Shore Gaming Association included semifinal game analysis, stats, odds and information you can bet on including an opinion on Connecticut in their win over Illinois. The lean lost on Arizona, and picks/opinions posted at OSGA since the Sweet Sixteen are 4-0 ATS. Connecticut trailed Duke by 19 points and 15 at halftime before the unbelievable March Madness moment to win the game in the closing second to send the Huskies to the Final Four. Connecticut also lost to St. John's 72-52 in the Big East Tournament, and will need their best game to have a shot to stay close and slay the Big Ten's best in Michigan. 

Still, just a lean on Michigan (-7) in the national championship game. The game total is 146 points. 

Recall from my NCAA Tournament coverage that 22 of the last 23 National Champions have ranked and finished in the Top 20 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. But Connecticut as a 2-seed from the East Region does not fit the profile this year, while Michigan as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region has flexed their dominance as a top offense and top defense with both teams advancing to the Final Four with strong all around play providing keys to NCAA Tournament success. 

- Michigan (4 offense, 1 defense)
- Connecticut (26 offense, 8 defense) 

Back in November, I wrote about the national championship contenders and top college basketball games for the month including the top teams in the new Players Era Championship event in Las Vegas. I attended the Players Era event as a media member and saw Michigan blowout Gonzaga by 40 points in the championship game. The Wolverines reviewed their play from that tournament in preparation for their national semifinal game against Arizona, which was another blowout by Big Blue, 91-73. Michigan is the first team in NCAAT history to score 90 or more points in all five of their wins leading to the national championship game, and they have beaten all five opponents by an average of 21.6 points per game. The line has gone up more than 1 point from the advance line at BetOnline ahead of the semifinals, and Michigan has won all five of their NCAAT games by at least 13 points - similar to UCONN's championship run in 2024 when the Huskies won all games by 14 or more points and went 6-0 SU/ATS on their way to a national title and 75-60 win over Purdue in the national championship game. 

I made a pizza bet on Michigan to win the national title at 12/1 as I was watching Michigan destroy Gonzaga in November. I don't bet many futures, and it's best to get in front of the numbers and anticipate improvement while recognizing injuries can blow up your futures and plans. My friend who I took to the Players Era Championship bet $600 on Michigan at 10/1 odds to win the national championship in November, so he's feeling pretty good into the title game. But injuries have in fact impacted the preparation for the national championship game and are a key storyline. Michigan's Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg played just 14 minutes in the semifinal win over Arizona having suffered an (twisted) ankle injury. He's expected to play, but perhaps it's better to watch and wager in live/in-game betting as you evaluate status and impact. Same for UCONN guard Solo Ball, who played through a foot sprain in the semifinal win over Illinois. 

I'll only lean Michigan's way over Connecticut, knowing UCONN coach Dan Hurley has clearly proven his coaching, preparation and adjustment abilities, especially at tournament time. Under Hurley, Connecticut is 18-3 SU, and on a 18-1 ATS run since 2023 in the NCAA Tournament with two national title wins. First half bettors note that the Huskies are 13-3-1 against the first-half spread in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games, and UCONN is 22-12-1 to the over, while Michigan is 24-14 to the over, for a combined 46-26-1 to the first-half over this season.  

More matchup analysis, keys to winning and additional information you can bet on for Michigan-UCONN. 

Tips and Trends 

For what it's worth, here are some other tips and trends for the championship game.

- National Championship Game favorites are 7-1 SU in the last eight years, including winning the last four. Since 2000, title game favorites are 19-6 SU and 17-8 ATS.
- Championship Game favorites of 3 points or more are 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS since 2000, and only twice in the last 25 years did the championship game winner not cover the spread.
- Since year 2000, any NCAAT team that scores 88 points or more in a game are 61-10 SU and 44-27 ATS in their next NCAA Tournament game if favored by 6 points or more. 
- Connecticut is now 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS in the Final Four, including 6-0 SU/ATS in the national title game ahead of the game against Michigan. 
- Big East teams are 8-0 SU/ATS in the National Championship Game since 2001, while Big Ten teams are 0-8 SU/ATS with No. 1 seed Michigan State the last Big Ten team to win the national title in 2000. 
- As a favorite of 6+ points in the NCAA Tournament, Dusty May is 33-1 SU and 27-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents as a head coach with Michigan and FAU.
- In this year's NCAA Tournament, favorites are 36-30 ATS. Over the last three years in March Madness, favorites are 112-88 ATS (56%) and above .500 ATS each of the three seasons for favorites. This is the first time since 2007-09 where favorites were above .500 ATS in three straight NCAA Tournaments.
- Favorites of 6 points or more are 69-39 ATS (64%) over the last three NCAA Tournaments with big favorites mostly dominating each year during March Madness, going 23-14 ATS this year, 22-12 ATS last year and 24-13 ATS in 2023-24.
- Since NCAA Tournament seeding began in 1978-79, only 4 teams listed above 20/1 odds entering March Madness have won the title. Connecticut (22/1) can make it five with a title game victory with the Huskies also winning the national title at longer odds in 2011 and 2014 as a No. 7 seed at near 100/1 odds. 

Enjoy the national championship game as millions of fans pull for Michigan to win as a top bracket favorite in more than 56% of brackets to reach the Final Four, and 15-30% picking Michigan to win the championship, depending on the platform. Looks like Michigan will end the Big Ten drought and become the first Big Ten team to win the national championship since Michigan State in year 2000.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, writer, reporter and poker player. He's been covering major sports from a betting perspective for more than two decades from Las Vegas. FairwayJay is also on the scene for major sports and poker events plus industry conferences as a credentialed media member. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.