Top NFL Week 11 card highlighted by Seahawks-Rams, Chiefs-Broncos and 9 Division Games plus Lions-Eagles

The NFL Week 11 card is the best yet with nine division games plus a showdown in Philadelphia between division leaders and Super Bowl contenders Lions (6-3) and Eagles (7-2). I provide a preview of key division games for top online sportsbook BetOnline from last week. Check it out as you prepare for big game betting between the the Seahawks-Rams NFC West first place showdown, Chiefs-Broncos AFC West key contest and Bears-Vikings NFC North rematch from Week 1 when the Bears blew it in the 4th quarter in defeat.

The Chicago Bears have won 6-of-7 games to get into the division and playoff chase. But the Bears have a tough stretch ahead with road games at Minnesota, Philadelphia and Green Bay plus a home game next week against Pittsburgh and Bears QB killer Aaron Rodgers. 

One of the best cards of the year will create big watch and wager action for Week 11. The division games start with the continued rise of the New England Patriots (8-2) with 7-straight wins hosting the clueless New York Jets (2-7), who have won 2-straight games despite another miserable offensive performance last week with 169 yards total offense but still a 27-20 win over the bumbling Cleveland Browns. How does that happen with zero Browns turnovers and allowing 158 rushing yards? The Browns had a 23-12 first down edge, ran 64 to 44 plays good for +109 yards edge and lost, despite also rushing for 158 yards. The difference was a Jets 99 yard kickoff return TD and 74 yard punt return touchdown. Two mostly clueless QB's in learning rookie QB Dillion Gabriel and 5th year former No. 1 pick Justin Fields, who passed for less than 55 yards for the third time in his last four games. Disgusting to watch at the NFL level. Harder to wager on after a proven sample size of bumbling play by Fields and the Jets. 

NFL Week 11 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold. 

- New York Jets at New England (-13), 42.5 - Thursday
- Washington at Miami (-2.5), 47.5 - Madrid, Spain
- Green Bay (-7) at New York Giants, 42.5
- Tampa Bay at Buffalo (-5.5), 47.5
- Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-5.5), 49
- Houston (-6) at Tennessee, 37
- Chicago at Minnesota (-3), 48.5
- Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5), 42.5
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville, 43.5
- Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (-3), 48.5
- San Francisco (-3) at Arizona, 48.5
- Baltimore (-9) at Cleveland, 39
- Kansas City (-4) at Denver, 45
- Detroit at Philadelphia (-2.5), 46.5 SNF
- Dallas (-3.5) at Las Vegas, 49.5

Also monitor the NFL weather each week along with the injury reports, as more starting quarterbacks are ruled out or remain sidelined with Lamar Jackson and J.J. McCarthy having just returned to action. (Dart - NYG, Stroud - HOU, Daniels - WSH, Purdy - SF, Burrow - CIN, Murray - AZ) along with key players impacting point of attack play. Snow if Buffalo along with gusting high winds in Buffalo and Cleveland. 

Best and Worst Quarterbacks

Plenty of betting support for both the Seahawks (7-2) and Rams (7-2) with Seattle actually slightly above Los Angeles by virtually every measure including DVOA, EPA (expected points added) per play and point differential. Must tune into the Seahawks-Rams showdown for high-level coaching and player performances and play with two (less 'athletic') quarterbacks playing at the highest level. Two MVP candidates who really understand how to play the position, pass and perform with timing and precision with Matthew Stafford of the Rams the best and Sam Darnold of the Seahawks continuing his top play. Why did the Vikings let him leave again, or the Jets back in the day as their former No. 1 pick? Or the Carolina Panthers who let him leave and now have a completely clueless and incapable quarterback in Bryce Young who they mortgaged the future to move up to No. 1? The Lions traded Stafford for a huge haul including draft picks and QB Goff when Detroit was bad year-after-year, and you see the results now in Detroit and for the Rams back challenging again after winning a Super Bowl with Stafford. 

Along with Justin Fields, Young's stats and advanced metrics are really bad. Our Week 10 Panthers pick and total was a (really bad) loser, as Young managed 102 passing yards, and the Panthers running game (73 yards) never materialized after taking an early 7-0 lead before another horrible performance in a 17-7 home loss to the Saints (2-8). FYI, Carolina has now lost a record 11-straight games when closing as the favorite with that clueless quarterback Bryce Young, who averaged only 2.1 disgraceful yards per pass play against the New Orleans blitz. Of course we won't be betting on the Panthers this week with the Falcons’ defense sporting the second-highest blitz rate (52%) in the league. 

NFL Week 10 totals went 1-1 with both opinions, and suggested tips on teasers went 5-0. 

Week 11 Game Totals

Bears-Vikings - Over

This total is up from the opener of 47, and while both young 2nd-year quarterbacks Caleb Williams and J.J. McCarthy are inconsistent and have much learning and growing to do, it's still a bet for this game to produce more points than the Week 1 Vikings come-from-behind win 27-24 at Chicago. Two top play callers and coaches, indoors, fast surface, Bears top-5 stats offense (380 yards per game, 5.9 yards per play). The Bears also have a bottom-5 defense thus far allowing 375 ypg at 6.4 yppl and 27.4 points per game, including 446 ypg, 6.6 yppl and 30.7 ppg in in their last three contests against the Giants, Bengals and Ravens - all losing teams with bottom quartile scoring and yards defenses with the Vikings near average. The Bears have a league-best +14 turnover differential, and the Vikings -7 is only worst than the 49ers (-8) and disastrous Jets (-10). Did you know the Bears road games are 4-0-1 to the over this season averaging a combined 61 points per game? The Vikings game went under last week in a 27-19 home loss to the Ravens but the Vikings offense still had 365 yards (more garbage yards trailing 2 TDs) and joined the Bears with 6.0 yards per play last week. The Bears have a 5.0 yards per rush offense but allow 5.2 yards per rush on defense. A number of additional positive situations and trends point to more scoring along with favorable matchups and receivers to take advantage against bottom quartile pass defenses allowing 6.8 and 7.8 (Bears) yards per pass and > 67% completions. 

Opinions

All game totals have dropped. 

Buccaneers-Bills - under
Panthers-Falcons - under (you know why)
Packers-Giants - under
Chiefs-Broncos - under 

Pass on the Seahawks-Rams game total, and despite high-level quarterback play and league-leading receivers, the solid defenses, stats, matchups and situation points to less scoring than the high total with betting angles to support.  

Teasers

- Packers, Bears, Cardinals, Raiders

Along with our weekly NFL tips, totals and teasers, check back for any additions plus more picks, props and parlays over the weekend. More to review and consider ahead of the big watch and wager NFL Week 11 schedule.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.