Has LIV Golf run its course?

When the concept of LIV Golf was announced in 2021 there were questions about whether it was feasible. The biggest concerns for the league was that it didn’t have any major channels in the U.S. or Europe willing to broadcast it, it had a format that was often confusing, and it was seen as a form of sportswashing by the Saudi government, i.e. trying to hide human rights abuses by pouring money into international sports to deflect criticisms. To get traction, LIV hired Greg Norman as its CEO and he enticed some of the best players in the world to abandon the PGA Tour to play for LIV instead, offering huge signing bonuses and large tournament prizes.

It worked, as Phil Mickelson was the first to move to LIV in exchange for a $200 million signing bonus and being a major spokesperson for the tour. That was followed in June 2022 with Brooks Koepka signing for $130 million, Bryson DeChambeau signing for $125 million and Dustin Johnson signing for  $125 million that same month. Cameron Smith and Joaquin Niemann agreed to move from the PGA Tour to LIV for $100 million each two months later and other golfers were given signing bonuses in 2022 as well, although none at $100 million plateau. John Rahm received a large undisclosed signing bonus that was estimated at $400 million in December 2023, being the last major bonus handed out. Other golfers like Bubba Watson, Ian Poulter, Sergio Garcia and a few others received smaller signing bonuses, and Henrik Stenson received a $50 million signing bonus but has returned to the DP Tour after being relegated following poor play and injuries.

While these bonuses are quite large, it seems that money doesn’t always buy happiness.

Players returning to the PGA

Prior to 2026 the PGA Tour announced the Returning Member Program, which allowed any golfer that won a major tournament or PGA Championship from 2022 to 2025 to come back to the tour, albeit under a financial penalty. The decision had to be made by February 6th. Brooks Koepka consequently announced that he was leaving LIV to go back to the PGA and agreed to the terms, which will likely cost him up to $80 million in future earnings. Comments made by Kopeka including that he is now starting to “enjoy playing golf” made it evident that he did not enjoy his time at LIV. Koepka played in two tournaments so far making the cut in one and missing the cut in the other. Patrick Reed, who won the Masters in 2018, is coming back, although he is doing so by playing on the DP Tour instead. Reed won the Dubai Desert Classic and Qatar Masters in his first two starts on the DP Tour in 2026 but isn’t eligible to return to the PGA Tour until August. He can, of course, play the majors as a past Masters champion and there is a slim chance the PGA Tour might be looking for a faster path for him to return to the Tour given he is clearly still at the top of his game. Kevin Na, Pat Perez and Hudson Swafford all announced they would be coming back in January 2027 as well after serving a penalty by the PGA Tour for defecting to LIV and there are unconfirmed reports several other players on LIV are weighing their options.

While the tour would love to see all prior winners come back, it is evident their main focus is on Bryson DeChambeau, John Rahm and Cameron Smith as those golfers were able to return under the returning members program. While the February 6th deadline has passed, there is no doubt that if Rahm or DeChambeau said they wanted to return, the PGA Tour would say "yes, please" as those two players, along with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, are the biggest names in the game today. Mind you none of those golfers seem to have any interest to leave LIV and for good reason. DeChambeau, who won the U.S. Open in 2024 and has been competitive in every major tournament the last two years, is their meal ticket. And DeChambeau knows it. His contract with LIV expires at the end of 2026 and it is expected he will demand another signing bonus worth at least $500 million to stay on that tour. Some even suggest he may ask for closer to a billion dollars! John Rahm isn’t going to leave because he would have to pay back some of the massive signing bonus he got which was at least triple that of DeChambeau. And Cameron Smith has been hostile towards the PGA Tour saying that the atmosphere at LIV is better for his game and that leaving was "the best decision of my life."

That said, there has to be questions as to whether the Saudi Investment Fund will be willing to fund LIV forever. The league has lost almost half a billion dollars each year (it is estimated the total losses will be just under 2 billion dollars total once the 2025 figures are calculated), and for that expense they simply aren’t getting what they were after. There’s no doubt LIV was founded to help win favor and praise with governments worldwide, although the main government they wanted to get more favorable with was the United States. If that was their goal, they need not worry.

Donald Trump has been bosom buddies with the Saudi government even to the point of berating an ABC journalist at the White House for asking Saudi Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud about Saudi Arabia’s involvement in 9-11 and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The smirk by Al Saud confirmed that as long as Donald Trump is president, he and the Saudi government had no reason to worry about proving themselves. Of course the agreement by the Saudi government to invest $1 trillion in the United States along with known investments by the Saudi Government and the Trump Administration is probably at least a partial reason for that. But it’s doubtful that their decision to continue with LIV or not will make a difference to the favorability from the sitting U.S. President.

Viewers and interest in LIV Golf waning

To make things worse, the viewership and interest in LIV has been dismal. The poor viewership at first could be partially attributed to the fact it was on the CW network for three years and YouTube the first year which many people in the U.S. simply don’t have a subscription to. But this year it moved to FOX Sports, which many thought would help boost viewership. If the first tournament of 2026 was any indication, however, that made little difference. The tournament for the last round under the lights in Riyadh averaged 40,200 viewers compared to 2.9 million viewers for the final round of the Farmers Championship and over 560,000 on Golf Channel for the rest of the rounds. Similarly the final rounds of LPGA and Champions tour tournaments average two to five times the viewers of LIV depending on the event. LIV does attract a lot of people to attend in person, although it is noted that the events are often in cities abandoned by the PGA Tour and ticket prices are substantially less than PGA Tour events. Moreover, upwards of 25% of the tickets are complimentary, particularly for first responders, military and university students.

I asked a friend who works for a major international sportsbook if LIV Golf does well for betting and he actually laughed.

"Betting on LIV is so bad we discussed whether to continue offering it but we know if we stopped we could get backlash from a few bettors and politicians that openly support LIV so we decided we need to continue to offer it as long as LIV is operating. We get at least 500 bets on the PGA Tour for every bet on LIV. And to be honest in terms of betting our biggest wagers are on any PGA tournament followed by LPGA, DP Tour, PGA Champions Tour, Korn Ferry Tour and then a long way back to LIV. The amount bet on LIV is simply immaterial although we do get a few more bets when DeChambeau or Rahm are on or near the lead in the final day. To be honest over 80% of bets we get are on those two players even though other players like Gooch and Niemann have been more successful."

I asked him if he had a thought as to why there was lack of interest from bettors on LIV?

"Aside from the TV issue and it going up against other more popular golf tours I think the biggest issue is the shotgun format and the confusion that brings on. The other concessions like wearing shorts, the team competition, the no cut rule, or even it being a 54-hole tournament isn’t that big a deal but when people watch golf they want to know exactly where the leaders are. With every other tour you know on day 3 or day 4 the prior day’s leaders will be coming down the fairway towards the 18th hole as the last group. It’s easy for the TV broadcasts to follow golfers making up ground and know precisely where each golfer is, but with the shotgun format it’s just a whirlwind. I know even here we have problems when two or more golfers have played 16 holes and we have to figure out if one hole is harder than another hole that would sway the odds.  We have great traders in golf that have been in the business for more than a decade but they hate trying to price LIV. I’m also sure there are people that simply don’t want to bet on a Saudi backed product although we try to keep politics out of betting unless the bet is on elections."

The Future of LIV Golf

So LIV must ask itself moving forward if the investment is worth it. Aside from the signing bonuses (and don’t forget DeChambeau will almost certainly be looking for between $500 million and $1 billion dollars to re-sign), the purses themselves are high. Elvis Smylie won $4 million for winning the Riyadh tournament with $30 million given out in total to all players for their individual performances and for the teams. For anyone trying to figure it out - that works out to $714 per final day TV viewer! No doubt the Saudi Investment Fund has a lot of money but even they must decide when enough is enough. And the players that are in LIV now are likely the best they are going to get. Scheffler, McIlroy, Matsuyama, etc. aren’t going anywhere, so LIV’s future will be with the likes of Elvis Smylie, Luis Masasso, David Puig, Michael La Sasso or Tom McGibbin, i.e. relative no names and not players that everyone knows and wants to follow. After all LIV Golf still doesn’t offer Official World Ranking points so every time a player like Tyrell Hatton plays in LIV, his world rankings decline.

Regardless of what the future of LIV holds, one thing for certain is that the PGA Tour players have LIV to thank for their better situation. Without LIV there is no way the eight signature events on the PGA Tour would have been designated as such with purses of $20 million each and $25 million for the Player’s Championship. And more importantly, seeing what LIV has done in dampening the spirits of some of the best in the game and the excitement and pure joy those players have when returning to play in the major tournaments, it’s clear that most PGA Tour players realize how blessed they are to be able to play on the best tour in the world and what they trained all their lives for. But what happens next is unclear.

When all the contracts expire at the end of 2026 either LIV will pay the piper and say money is no object and just treat LIV as a perpetual losing entity, or they will announce the end of signing bonuses which will almost certainly lead to a mass exodus from LIV to return to the PGA Tour. For golf fans and bettors alike, tournaments are always better when the best in the game are all playing at the same time.

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