NFL Week 17 Betting Preview And Tips Including Christmas Day Trio Of Division Games

The NFL Week 17 schedule kicks off on Christmas Day with three big division road favorites, but only one of the six teams is going to the playoffs. Scoring has averaged 49-50 points each of the past three weeks, including in Week 16 when our totals tips went 4-1 on Sunday with a half-point loser. 

December has been a winning month on both tips, totals and teasers plus picks, props and parlays following a 3-0 sweep in picks and opinions (plus a push) in Week 16. NFL picks and opinions are 14-7 ATS since Week 11 (7-2 picks). Game totals are 11-7 since Week 12 including 3-1 on top totals tips. Recall in 2023 our NFL underdog picks went 11-1 ATS with 9 outright winners in December to cap a 57% ATS run on posted NFL underdog picks at OSGA from 2017-2023, including a 70% ATS season in 2021 on all NFL underdog picks. 

NFL Week 17 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold with the first three games on Christmas Day (Thursday). 

- Dallas (-8.5) at Washington, 50.5 (up from -7.5 earlier today)
- Detroit (-7.5) at Minnesota, 43
- Denver (-13.5) at Kansas City, 36.5
- Houston at LA Chargers (-2), 39.5 - Sat
- Baltimore at Green Bay (-3), 40.5 - Sat 
- Arizona at Cincinnati (-7.5), 53
- Seattle (-7) at Carolina, 42
- Pittsburgh (-3) at Cleveland, 34
- New Orleans (-2.5) at Tennessee, 40
- Tampa Bay (-6) at Miami, 45.5
- Jacksonville (-6.5) at Indianapolis, 48.5
- New England (-13.5) at NY Jets, 43
- NY Giants (-1) at Las Vegas, 41.5
- Philadelphia at Buffalo (-1), 44
- Chicago at San Francisco (-3), 52.5 - SNF
- LA Rams (-9) at Atlanta, 50 - MNF

Week 17 Game Totals

Jaguars-Colts - Over 

Opinions 

Giants-Raiders - Under 
Rams-Falcons - Over

Teasers 

- Cowboys, Lions. 

Check back Saturday for any additions and line moves. 

Christmas Day Games 

BetOnline reports early bet count on the Cowboys (68%), Lions (78%) and Broncos (58%) with much more spread, moneyline and totals betting on Christmas Eve and Day. 

Dallas at Washington - The Cowboys project to have the most yards on offense of any team in Week 17, generating more than 430 yards on the road against rival Washington. Quarterback Dak Prescott ranks 10th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade off of play action, and he’ll attack a Commanders defense that has struggled against play action (26th in yards per play allowed). Turnover troubles have factored into the Cowboys (6-8-1) and Commanders (4-11) losing records with Dallas -10 and Washington -12 in turnover differential. Washington starts third string QB Josh Johnson, who has played for a record 14 NFL teams and we're not interested in the journeyman or the Commanders even with an inflated line. 

We'll add a player prop on Prescott over 270.5 passing yards. Prescott has passed for 4,175 yards (278/game), and just four yards behind NFL passing leader Matthew Stafford of the Rams. Since mid-November, Prescott has passed for 354 yards (PHI), 320 (KC), 376 (at DET), 294 (MIN) and 244 at Los Angeles last week on just 30 pass attempts (8.1 yards per pass) against the Chargers top-5 pass defense that allows an average of just 179 passing yards per game, 5.9 yards per pass and 61% completions. Dallas beat Washington 44-22 in Week 7 when Prescott also passed just 30 times but for 264 yards (8.8 yards per pass). 

Detroit at Minnesota - Rookie QB Max Brosmer makes his second start for the Vikings (7-8) after throwing 4 INT's in his starting debut at Seattle in a 26-0 loss on Nov. 30. Those interceptions contributed to the Vikings -14 turnover differential this season; second-worst in the league. Brosmer is actually capable and competent, but still needs playing time and better offensive line protection after the OL surrendered 13 pressures and a sack on 29 passing snaps last week to fall to No. 25 in PFF's offensive line rankings into Week 17. Minnesota shoots for a season sweep over the defending NFC North champions Lions (8-7), who are +10 in turnover differential but losers of four of their last six games - all against playoff teams. The Lions have a 6% chance to make the playoffs, according to Next Gen Stats, and must win their final two games and have the Packers lose twice. The Vikings beat the Lions 27-24 as a 9.5 point underdog in Week 9 with J.J. McCarthy the starting  quarterback. Now the Lions have all three interior offensive line starters playing for the first time since Week 9, and the Vikings will be without edge defender Jonathan Greenard. 

Denver at Kansas City - Another game tougher to project with a third home team on Christmas Day starting a different quarterback than the starter or backup. Chiefs QB Chris Oladokun will make his first NFL start against the Broncos, and he's spent the last four seasons on the Chiefs practice squad. Kansas City (6-9) will miss the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2014, and their 9-year run as AFC West division champs ends. The Broncos (12-3) are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC with two games remaining, but five teams still have a shot at the No. 1 seed and first round playoff bye. That includes the Chargers (11-4), who visit Mile High in Denver for a big Week 18 division duel for the AFC West title if the Chargers win this week at home over Houston. Early advance line Broncos -2.5 vs. Chargers and total 42.5. 

Two more quarterbacks and NFL injuries to monitor are Jordan Love and Lamar Jackson in this week's key Packers-Ravens game in Green Bay. Both have been limited or not practicing this week. 

Check out more Christmas day picks, props, parlays plus tips, totals and teasers in my NFL news and betting coverage at BetOnline. 

Follow all sports betting coverage and picks at OSGA and check back for more Friday, including any upgrades plus analysis and picks, props and parlays. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.