LIV Golf is on the ropes

One of the big stories of the last week was an article in the Atlantic which suggested that PIF, The Saudi Public Investment Fund, was preparing to pull its funding for LIV Golf which would likely end the series. At the very least, it would end the monstrous signing bonuses it pays star players to participate which almost certainly will convince John Rahm, Bryson Dechambeau, and Cam Smith to return to  the PGA Tour via the Returning Member Program, as Brooks Koepka has, which extends an exemption to recent winner of Major tournaments. And for good marketable players like Thomas Detry, Talor Gooch, Elvis Smylie, Joaquin Niemann, and Abraham Ancer, they will likely be forced to follow the route of Patrick Reed and earn points on other tours like the DP Tour or Asian Tour and try and participate in open tournaments where they will almost assuredly get sponsor exemptions. Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia and Tyrell Hatton are able to play in most of the major tournaments thanks to exemptions for winning those tournaments in the past as is Phil Mickelson, but it’s hard to envision any of them being willing to eat humble pie and qualify via the traditional route like Reed. And make no mistake, of the lot, Phil Mickelson has burned pretty much all his bridges because he took a $200 million signing bonus, recruited most of those who left for LIV, has been very critical of the PGA Tour, despite the life it offered him before LIV. And to be perfectly honest Mickelson has been a dud on the LIV tour. Moreover at age 55, Mickelson would be on the PGA Champions Tour and there have been rumblings that those on that tour do not want him with some of the big stars saying they’ll leave if he returns. As for the rest of the LIV players they will almost certainly have to start from scratch and most just aren’t good enough to qualify against the young stars in qualifying tournaments.

Mickelson money grab

That said, if LIV does indeed fold, it illustrates almost exactly what is wrong with so many teams and athletes today in multiple sports. The idea for LIV started with Greg Norman, who convinced PGA stars like Phil Mickelson that they were being treated unfairly by the PGA Tour because the Tour was making most of the money and was not paying enough back through prize money. Norman promised a better system where players could play in fewer tournaments, earn more money and for the best players they would get signing bonuses. The only catch was this was being backed by the Saudi Government, and for many athletes and fans that was considered traitorous given the human rights abuses of the Saudi government including the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi as well as accusations they harbored Osama Bin Laden and were at least indirectly responsible for the 9-11 attacks.

When Mickelson accepted his signing bonus he even admitted that he was getting into bed with bad people when he told Alan Shipnuck of Golf Magazine "They're (Saudis) scary mothef*ckers to get involved with. We know they killed Khashoggi and have a horrible record on human rights. They execute people over there for being gay. Knowing all of this, why would I even consider it? Because this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reshape how the PGA Tour operates."

Needless to say the general attitude to that comment was that Mickelson was an entitled jerk and represented everything wrong with athletes who only care about money. When Mickelson joined LIV he was forced to apologize to PIF for the comments although he said the comment was supposed to be off the record, but the damage was done and Mickelson was seen as just greedy and willing to sell his soul to the devil. It was also well known that PIF was hoping that LIV would help them absolve them of their bad press by investing in a product people like, hence the term sportswashing, similar to the way mobsters use legal means to launder ill gotten gains via. money laundering.

Nevertheless, Mickelson signed first followed by Dustin Johnson and Bryson Dechambeau, both for $125 million. Then Brooks Koepka signed for $130 million, Cam Smith signed for $100 million and John Rahm signed for $300 million in December of 2023 despite telling everyone he was not interested in leaving the PGA Tour. Other players likely got signing bonuses too, although the amounts are not publicly known, and there were merit bonuses for each seasonal winner, which included Dustin Johnson in 2022, Talor Gooch in 2023, John Rahm in 2024 and 2025. LIV apparently offered Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods over $500 million each, but they turned it down.

Big money doesn't always mean big success

Despite the stars in LIV and all the money thrown at them, LIV never took off. Most fans simply didn’t like the format which included tournaments less frequently, limited to 54 holes (for the first 3 years), a shotgun start, and most importantly it was still viewed as a series for greedy turncoats. It failed to get a major TV network to show the events and even sportsbooks said that despite offering odds on almost every tournament, it always received fewer bets than the PGA Tour, LPGA Tour, Champions Tour, and European Tour. According to many bettors I spoke to, they said the format and especially the shotgun start made it confusing and unbettable. It was also quite noticeable that players like Dechambeau looked "indifferent" at LIV events but was focused and happy when playing in the major tournaments with the best in golf.

To get back at the players who defected to LIV, the PGA Tour banned everyone who left from ever returning (although as mentioned earlier they offered a way back to the premiere golfers via the Returning Member Program). The PGA even tried to ban LIV golfers from the Masters, British Open, U.S. Open, and PGA Championship, although those tournaments are run by outside entities who allowed golfers who qualified via past wins in the tournaments to play, after those golfers threatened to sue the PGA Tour. And to try and keep the star players happy, the PGA Tour added signature events, with each tournament having a smaller field and $20 million prize or more and gave a few extra incentives. But many fans noted the much higher costs for attending the tournaments as well as a lot more cash grabs at the events, such as increased parking costs. So while most PGA Tour players were disgusted by their LIV counterparts they acknowledged that they are better off now thanks to the breakaway series.

Big bucks not just in golf

It would be nice to say that LIV and the PGA Tour players are unique for this type of greediness, for lack of a better word, but that would be untrue. One only needs to look at the craziness that took place at the end of free agency in Major League Baseball after the World Series to see that. Kyle Tucker seemed set to sign a good contract with the Toronto Blue Jays until the Los Angeles Dodgers used their plethora of money and creative accounting to defer contracts for players like Shohei Ohtani to offer Tucker a $60 million a year contract that almost everybody agrees was undeserved based on his stats. And so far in 21 games with the Dodgers this year he’s hitting .256 and has 20 strikeouts which is similar to other years. So unless he shows something he never had previously, it was not a good contract. And Bo Bichette was said to have had a deal all but signed with the Phillies until the Mets made him an offer he couldn’t refuse and he jumped at the $42 million a year contract, which again, every expert agrees was at least 50% above his true value. And Bichette is struggling to hit above .200, is having his usual defensive woes and the team is not playing any better with him. Alex Bregman, James Wood, Patrick Corbin and the list can go on are also MLB contracts that pay more than they are worth. And of course you can point to the NBA, NFL and NHL to see contracts that were handed out to players at unwarranted values just so teams could keep them away from their competitors.

It’s hard to fault the players for going for the big bucks anymore than one can fault LIV golfers for following the money, although at least North American teams aren’t owned by a country known for civil rights abuses. But like with LIV, there is a cost and it’s at the expense of the fans. Along with the fact that smaller teams don’t have the money to compete with teams like the Dodgers or Yankees since the best players are going for the big contracts, there also an increase in ticket costs, prices for merchandise and concessions to pay for the contracts, and worst of all, the best players now have far less interaction with the fans, unless the fans agree to pay them personally. Not long in the past, players would happily sign autographs for fans at games or even on the streets because they considered it a privilege and realized that their careers and success were due to fans, plus they were grateful for being paid for playing a game they loved. But nowadays, aside from the occasional autographs for kids and a few fans before or after games, one needs to pay big bucks in order to get an autograph that isn’t rushed. Fan expos and autograph events organized by sporting good or memorabilia companies have become the norm and people line up to pay upwards of $100 or more to get something signed by their favorite player. I can’t ever recall that being the case prior to the 2000s. Yes, there were autograph signings but they were always well organized and free. The extent of the greed, and disdain for fans was probably exemplified most with the Tom Brady signing in Miami when it was discovered that he uses different signatures based on how much money is spent. For Fanatics merchandise with whom he has a deal, signatures are more deliberate with a distinguishable 'T' and 'B' and often include inscriptions like "6X SB Champs”. For fan signings at games and such it is a more rushed almost scribbled signature where only the T is usually obvious and while it can be verified is not worth as much since it is not as crisp as the Fanatics signature. And as happened at the event for memorabilia collectors or sellers that aren’t associate with Fanatics, he scribbles an autograph that can’t be verified and is essentially worthless.  And since then it has come to light that Brady isn’t the only one who does this.

So not surprisingly many parents are refusing to allow their kids to be too involved with athletes these days. Instead of being seen as unselfish role models, they are seen as money grubbing grifters that parents don’t want their kids to emulate. And when this very scenario was brought up to a famous golfer not too long ago his reply was “I don’t care. I play for myself, not the fans.” And those comments and that attitude would never have been iterated by players like Jack Nicklaus or Willie Mays in days past.

So, it looks like LIV will be a thing of the past by next year and the general attitude will be “good riddance.” It was always seen as a playground for overindulged golfers and with its demise, all the best golfers will once again be united one way or another on the PGA Tour which is the league that most golf fans care about. For those who have followed my articles in the past this will not come as a surprise as I have said the model was never sustainable and the fact that few wanted to bet on it is the clearest indication it was never taken seriously. One bookmaker told me they got more bets on water polo and badminton than they did on LIV and even their most ardent bettors who will wager on anything wouldn't bet on LIV. 

It would be nice to say that this will be a learning curve for athletes and league owners and presidents who will realize that they need to be thankful for what they have and consider the fans before making rash decisions but that is unlikely to happen. After all this is a business and like any business the objective is to make the most money you can, but let’s hope that some players at least will consider the fans going forward and will sign a good autograph to a child who hands them a ball or a shirt, rather than a rushed scribble.

Read insights from Hartley Henderson every week here at OSGA and check out Hartley's RUMOR MILL!