The biggest college basketball games to bet in late February includes top ranked Michigan-Duke and Arizona-Houston matchups

The game day buzz on a spectacular Saturday of college basketball in February includes a pair of top-ranked matchups and Final Four previews. No. 1 Michigan (25-1) hits the hardwood against No. 3 Duke (24-2) in a huge Big Ten vs. ACC matchup that could determine the overall No. 1 seed in next month's NCAA Tournament. Tipoff for this huge watch and wager contest is at 6:30pm ET from Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. - site of the East Regional in the 2026 NCAA Tournament where Duke figures to be the No. 1 seed. Michigan will likely to be the top seed in the Midwest Region, where the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games are played at the United Center in Chicago.

The other monster matchup on Saturday is in the Big 12 where the two conference leaders collide with No. 4 Arizona (24-2) and No. 2 Houston (23-3) to determine the new solo leader in the Big 12 with both teams currently 11-2. Arizona has lost all three meetings to Houston under head coach Tommy Lloyd, including last season's Big 12 conference tournament title game. The Houston Cougars are 13-0 at home this season at the Fertitta Center on the U of H campus. That's named after UH alumni Tilman Fertitta, who donated $20 million toward the complete renovation of the arena in 2016. Fertitta owns major restaurant chains along with three Golden Nugget properties in Nevada including downtown Las Vegas. He serves on the board of Las Vegas-based Red Rock Resorts having recently been CEO of Station Casinos. 

Key Stats and Profiles of a National Champion

Those four college basketball powers Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Houston are top national championship contenders who are also 4-of-7 teams that currently fit a proven profile of a NCAA Tournament winner and National Champion. Teams that rank top 20 in both of KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency stats have won 22 of the last 23 national titles. Those stats will continue to change ahead of March Madness, and I've updated the currenty profiles below. 

- Michigan (4/1)
- Duke (7/2)
- Arizona (11/3)
- Houston (10/7)
- Florida (16/4)
- Iowa State (15/8)
- Vanderbilt (14/19)

Next: Illinois (1/23), Purdue (2/27), Gonzaga (22/10), Connecticut (24/13), Michigan State (40/6), Nebraska (49/5), Kansas (43/9), Louisville (12/29), Texas Tech (17/24), Tennessee (31/14), Arkansas (5/43), Virginia (33/16), St. Jonn's (42/17), BYU (9/47), Alabama (3/64), Utah State (20/34), Iowa (29/32), NC State (18/41), Villanova (32/33). 

Also, Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Houston are all defensive dominators, and 4-of-14 college basketball teams that hold opponents to less than 40% FG shooting. Michigan, Duke and Arizona are also among the top rebounding teams and rank top 8 in the country in rebounding rate. 

Sat., Feb. 21 Games

The huge college basketball card on Saturday includes nearly 150 games with some key contests in major conferences noted below. It's a good time to get your betting accounts in order ahead of the conference tournaments and March Madness. Many top online sportsbooks are offering March Madness contests with early bird offers and cash bonuses including from BetOnline, who provides the betting lines and odds on favorites plus game totals.

- Creighton at No. 17 St. Johns (-12.5 / 156) 
- Tennessee at No. 19 Vanderbilt (-3 / 150.5)
- Miami at No. 14 Virgina (-7 / 146)
- No. 4 Arizona at No. 2 Houston (-6 / 142) - 3 pm ET on ABC
- No. 3 Duke vs. No. 1 Michigan (-2.5 / - 6:30 pm ET on ESPN
- Missouri at No. 20 Arkansas (-9.5 / 160.5)
- No. 5 Connecticut (-2.5) at Villanova, 140.5
- No. 25 Alabama (-7) at LSU, 172
- No. 10 Illinois (-6.5) at UCLA, 147
- Pacific at No. 11 Gonzaga (-21.5 / 145)
- No. 6 Iowa State (-3) at No. 23 BYU, 154 

Creighton (8-8) is tied for fourth place behind Big East leader St. Johns (14-1), who plays at Connecticut (14-2) on Wed., Feb. 25 with St. Johns having won the first matchup 81-72 on Feb. 6 at Madison Square Garden. Creighton beat UCONN on the road 91-84 on Feb. 18 as a 15.5-point underdog. 

Arizona at Houston 

Arizona lost their two games back-to-back on Feb. 9 and 14 after ranking No. 1 in the country for nine straight weeks including unanimous No. 1 for four consecutive weeks. Those losses to Kansas and Texas Tech were by 4 and 3 points. Houston's three losses are by 3, 4 and 3 points. That includes 76-73 vs. Tennessee over Thanksgiving in a game I saw live in Las Vegas at the new Players Era Championship tournament. Houston also lost at Texas Tech 90-86 the end of January and lost at Iowa State 70-67 in their most recent game.

Arizona's loaded roster includes talented international players, but the Wildcats will play Saturday without key freshman and Arizona native, forward Koa Peat. He's second on the Wildcats in scoring (13.8) and rebounding (5.4) for a team that is top-10 in the country in scoring (87.7 ppg) and field goal shooting (50.6%). Houston counters with its signature defense with the nations best scoring defense allowing just 61.6 points per game and 39.7% FG to rank top 15. The Cougars have played a weaker non-conference schedule for a major conference team ranking outside the top 150, and both offensive and a Strength of Schedule (SOS) rating by KenPom of 42 - which is below Arizona (25), Duke (19), Michigan (7), Kansas (3), Texas Tech (4), Florida (5), Purdue (6), Illinois (12), Tennessee (15), Vanderbilt (26), Connecticut (30), Alabama (2), Arkansas (8), BYU (14), Louisville (21) but stronger than Iowa State (59), St. John's (43) and Gonzaga (84). 

Matchup stats: Houston leads the Big 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference games, and the Cougars are No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Arizona is No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency in Big 12 games, and No. 4 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Houston has the lowest turnover percentage in the congference, and the Cougars are No. 6 in eFG% - No. 4 in 2P% and No. 8 in 3-point percetage. Arizona's 26.7% 3-point rate is among the lowest in the country, and the Wildcats have the second-lowest TO% on offense in the conference and leads in 2-point percentage. But the Wildcats are No. 10 in 3-point percentage. Arizona's uptempo and efficient offense ranks No. 31 in total possessions per game and No. 20 in points per possession, and the Wildcats have a sizeable rebounding edge even without forward Koa Peat ranking No. 3 in the nation pulling down nearly 39% of its missed shots. Select shops including reduced juice sportsbooks have Arizona +6.5. 

Opinion: Arizona

Michigan vs. Duke

I had a media pass to the Players Era Championship tournament in Las Vegas over Thanksgiving, and saw Michigan dominate the tournament full of Top 25 teams including a 101-61 (not a misprint) title game victory over Gonzaga. I have a futures ticket on Michigan to win the NCAA tournament and national championship at double-digit odds, but my friend who I took to the games reminds me often he has nearly $900 in futures on Michigan at 10/1. Regardless, the Wolverines have continued to be among the countrys' elite teams and perhaps the best in recent years outside of Connecticut's 2023-24 championship season when the Huskies went 37-3 including 6-0 SU/ATS in the NCAA Tournament with all wins by double-digits. Head coach Dusty May has turned the Wolverines into a powerhouse in just his second season after bumbling Wolverines coach Juwan Howard fell off a cliff his last two seasons including 8-24 and just 3-17 in the Big Ten in 2023-24. 

Plenty of experience and scoring for the Wolverines, who average 90.6 points per game and allow just 37.1% FG on defense - both No. 2 nationally. Allowing just 68 points per game, Michigan is rated No. 1 by KenPom as the most efficient defense in the nation. Quite a combination for a team that scores 90 points per game with UAB transfer forward Yaxel Lendeborg is a big-body inside leading Michigan in scoring and rebounding (14.6/7.5). The balance and strength up front shows three players averaging more than 7 rebounds per game. That includes the 7'3" center Aday Mara and fellow 6'9" big body Morez Johnson Jr., who is among the most efficient players hitting better than 67% FG with 13.5 ppg and 7.3 rebounds per game. Lean PG Elliot Cadeau is hitting better than 40% from the arc, and out-played All-Big Ten guards at Illinois and Purdue in recent matchupsand. Add in guards Cason and Burnett as key contributors and this is the most complete and feared team in the country having gone 13-0 on the road including the recent double-digit road win over top-10 Purdue. 

Duke suffered a devasting defeat in last year's Final Four, but 4th year coach Jon Scheyer has reloaded for another Final Four run as the top team in the ACC again. The National Player of the Year frontrunner is 6'9", 250 pound freshman Cameron Boozer. He's following his fathers big shoes at Duke along with his brother, Cayden. Cameron is the leading newcomer in the nation of a loaded class scoring nearly 23 points with 10 rebounds per game hitting better than 58% field goals. The front court including Boozer boast athleticism and scoring ability across the floor, but face by far their toughest test against Michigan's size and defensive strength. With a top-3 denense allowing just 63.2 points per game, 39.2% FG and forcing teams into longer possessions and forced shots, it will be a challenge worth watching how Duke can matchup with Michigan as coach Scheyer adjusts in the half court and in transition with his complex offensive schematics. 

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More matchup stats: Duke is just average in perimiter shooting hitting 34.5% from the arc, ranking in the bottom half of the ACC. Both team are hitting 62% of their 2-point shots with the Wolverines playing stronger teams overall in the Big Ten, including defense and top 10 slate of offenses faced. Michigan's Strength of Schedule ranks top 10 while Duke is No. 21, according to KenPom. A contrast in styles as well with Michigan a top 12 tempo in possessions per 40 minutes while Duke is outside the top 250 in a controlled pace.     

Opinion: Michigan

I'm updating more stats and matchup analysis along with any picks or opinions of interest, so check back and follow @FairwayJay on X for additional updates. 

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FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and insightful analyst with proven winning results including in college basketball. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay