2019 TPC Twin Cities Betting Preview - Players, Projections, Profiles and Odds



FairwayJay chips in his insight on the TPC Twin Cities with information you can bet on.

PGA Tour Returns to the Twin Cities for Debut of 3M Open

The PGA Pros head to Blaine, Minnesota for the new 3M Open event just north of Minneapolis. And if last week's remarkable result doesn't inspire you to keep pushing forward in your pursuit of a passion, then perhaps this weekend watching the immensely talented PGA players tee it up will offer you some hope.

How low can they go? Last week, journeyman Nate Lashley wins by six shots at 25-under Par. This week, TPC Twin Cities will yield many birdies and a similar scores. Next week, TPC Deere Run where the average winning score the past 10 years is better than 21-under par and last year 27-under won the John Deere Classic. Then off to Northern Ireland for the Open Championship at Royal Portrush and more reality and tougher times on the golf course.  

If you haven't read the remarkable story of Nate Lashley's journey to the PGA Tour and first time winner last week in Detroit, take the time to read this and search others about him. Perseverance is an understatement, and Lashley defied the odds, which were not even available on him at the leading online sportsbooks as a longshot. Lashley was the last player into the field as an alternate before winning wire to wire by 6 shots with a 25-under par total in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He wasn't even offered at DraftKings or FanDuel in fantasy golf lineups.

Lashley became the 10th first time winner on Tour this season, which started late last year. So while picking a winner is difficult every week on Tour, reviewing statistical profiles, current and course form, and locating value on capable players like Gary Woodland (80-1) at the U.S. Open will at least assist you in other wagers, match-ups and props that provide a better opportunity to cash when betting on golf.

Tournament Set-up - TPC Twin Cities

3M Open picks oddsPar: 71
Yardage: 7,441
Stimpmeter: 12
Course Statistics
Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 72
Number of Water Hazards: 27 (on 14 holes)
Greens: Bentgrass .100”
Tees:     Bentgrass .285”
Fairways: Bentgrass .325”
Rough:  Bluegrass/Fescue 3”

Birdies should be plentiful, as the senior tour players tore this course apart over the last 12 years in the 3M Championship. Average winning score was better than 19-under par. The Arnold Palmer-design was modified a bit last year narrowing fairways, adding bunkers and tees to increase the length.

Featured Holes:

No. 6, 594-yard, par 5 risk/reward doubledog leg
No. 7, 381-yard par 4 reachable over water
No. 9, 502-yard par 4 with difficult long-iron approach
No. 14, 437-yard par 4 dogleg around Cavner’s Cove

This is not a tough test, but rather a birdie fest.

Key stats to consider for the 3M Open

Based on results from the senior tour event at the TPC Twin Cities, a good approach game will set up more scoring opportunities. Looking at golf stats, senior Tour winners and top of the leaderboard finishers were strong in Greens in Regulation. Add in some solid driving stats, par 4 efficiency and Strokes Gained: Approach, and Birdies or Better Gained, and you'll start sharpening your game with more contenders and match-up winners or props in pursuit of profit.  

Comparative TPC courses might provide you some insight on players that could repeat strong finishes.

TPC Boston 2018 results (Par 71, also Arnold Palmer course design)

DeChambeau (-16) WON
Matsuyama T4
Finau          T4
Koepka      T12
Mitchell       20
Hadwin      T21

Other Arnold Palmer designs include Bay Hill and PGA West

The Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands (Par 70) is another course to review for player stats. 2019 results last month:

Reavie (-17) WON
Bradley           T2
Niemann         T5
Day                T8
DeChambeau   T8

Also, TPC Scottsdale and the Waste Management Phoenix Open is worth reviewing in recent years for players performance along with TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas for Shriners Open, PGA National (Honda Classic) and TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude).

Odds at BookMaker to win 3M Open
Brooks Koepka +725
Jason Day +925
Hideki Matsuyama +1412
Bryson Dechambeau +1650
Patrick Reed +2630
Tony Finau +2845
Rory Sabbatini +4050
Viktor Hovland +4050
Joaquin Niemann +3650
Keegan Bradley +4050
Kevin Streelman +4500
Sungjae Im +4500
Kevin Na +5050
Scott Piercy +5000
Ryan Moore +6050
Adam Hadwin +5000
Phil Mickelson +5850
Charles Howell III +5417
Lucas Glover +6250
Collin Morikawa +5550
Nate Lashley +8500
Keith Mitchell +7050
Daniel Berger +8500
Charley Hoffman +8750
Sung Kang +7850
Luke List +6850
Cameron Champ +9150
J.J. Spaun +9050
Peter Malnati +12050
Danny Lee +10050
Jason Dufner +10500
Brian Harman +10050
Nick Watney +9050
Talor Gooch +11500
Jimmy Walker +11050
Cameron Tringale +12050
Corey Conners +10500
Si Woo Kim +12500
Pat Perez +13500
Sepp Straka +13500
Max Homa +13500
Denny McCarthy +12050
Jonas Blixt +15050
Kyoung Hoon Lee +14500
Mackenzie Hughes +11550
Michael Thompson +11500
Wyndham Clark +10050
Russell Henley +15500
Bronson Burgoon +15500
Martin Laird +9050
Field (Any Other Player) +170

Players in the field this week that rank highly in Greens in Regulation (GIR) include:

(1st) Corey Conners, (5th) Charles Howell III, (6th) Talor Gooch, (7th) Brooks Koepka and (10th) Cameron Champ - all 70% or better in GIR.

3M Open betting oddsStrokes Gained Putting is worth review, and longshots are top-10. (1st) Denny McCarthy, (8th)  Dominic Bozzelli and (9th) Wyndham Clark. The TPC greens don't have much undulation and good putters should do well, despite the difficulty in determining which players will be hot with the flat stick each week. 

Par Breakers, and players in the field that rank highly in birdies and eagles include: Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka and Jason Day.

A 40% chance of rain and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday could impact the play, but near 80 degree temperatures and clearing over the weekend should set the stage for low scores.

Favorites:

Jason Day - ranks top-20 in GIR this year and led the field at the Travelers. Top 15 in ball striking.

Brooks Koepka - ranks Top-10 in GIR, 8th in Fairway proximity (distance shots to green finishes from holes). Top 5 in ball striking.

Hideki Matsuyama - one of just two top-10 players without a win this year. Solid performances continue, and a strong week of putting, his minor weakness, gets him in contention. Solid last week until final round, top 10 in birdie average and top 20 in par breakers. 

Bryson DeChambeau - Not hitting enough greens, outside top 130 in GIR, and scrambling not good and neither is shorter putts inside 10 feet. Top 10 at Travelers offers hope that better form is forthcoming.

Mid-range and long shots:

Cameron Champ - Ranks No. 1 in driving distance, top 10 in GIR, top 15 par breakers. T46 last week following a strong start of 66-65.

Joaquin Niemann - Finished 5th last week while 2nd in GIR for the week (83%) and T5 Fairway's hit with top-3 in ball striking. He's 28 under in his last 8 rounds on Tour, as he also finished 5th at Travelers. Hit or miss early season, but 20 year old is finding way.  

Keegan Bradley - putting holds him back, but 2nd place finish at the Travelers, and top-30 in GIR.  

Scott Piercy - Top 20 in GIR and ball striking, top 10 in Par 4 scoring. Good course fit and four PGA Tour wins have come on low-scoring courses. 

Sungae Im - T7 at TPC Scottsdale, T3 Bay Hill, T21 TPC River Highlands. Top 30 in birdies, scoring, top 50 in GIR. Yes, the 21-year-old Korean can play.

Viktor Hovland - turned pro last month following strong U.S. Open. Solid last three weeks and needs a top-5 finish remainder of season into FedEx Cup to get his PGA Tour card for rest of year. Strong putting and 37 birdies made in his last two starts. Bright future. 

Charles Howell III - a longshot I look towards for top finishes and he's been on his game. Top 5 in GIR. 

Talor Gooch - solid sleeper, Top-6 in GIR and Top-15 in birdie average. Improving and top-20 last week.

Phil Mickelson - spoke fondly of Ryder Cup in Minnesota and great fan support. Unfortunately, Phil has struggled with his game since Masters and outside top 100 in GIR, driving accuracy and putting surprisingly poor on short putts. 

Other longshots - Burgoon, Hadley, Hadwin, Henley, Redman, Tringale

The Picks:

Fairway's Foursome: Gooch, Hovland, Howell, Matsuyama

Match-up: Hadwin (+107) minus 1.5 strokes over Lashley


FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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