The PGA Pros head to Blaine, Minnesota for the new 3M Open event just north of Minneapolis. And if last week's remarkable result doesn't inspire you to keep pushing forward in your pursuit of a passion, then perhaps this weekend watching the immensely talented PGA players tee it up will offer you some hope.
How low can they go? Last week, journeyman Nate Lashley wins by six shots at 25-under Par. This week, TPC Twin Cities will yield many birdies and a similar scores. Next week, TPC Deere Run where the average winning score the past 10 years is better than 21-under par and last year 27-under won the John Deere Classic. Then off to Northern Ireland for the Open Championship at Royal Portrush and more reality and tougher times on the golf course.
If you haven't read the remarkable story of Nate Lashley's journey to the PGA Tour and first time winner last week in Detroit, take the time to read this and search others about him. Perseverance is an understatement, and Lashley defied the odds, which were not even available on him at the leading online sportsbooks as a longshot. Lashley was the last player into the field as an alternate before winning wire to wire by 6 shots with a 25-under par total in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He wasn't even offered at DraftKings or FanDuel in fantasy golf lineups.
Lashley became the 10th first time winner on Tour this season, which started late last year. So while picking a winner is difficult every week on Tour, reviewing statistical profiles, current and course form, and locating value on capable players like Gary Woodland (80-1) at the U.S. Open will at least assist you in other wagers, match-ups and props that provide a better opportunity to cash when betting on golf.
Tournament Set-up - TPC Twin Cities
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,441
Stimpmeter: 12
Course Statistics
Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 72
Number of Water Hazards: 27 (on 14 holes)
Greens: Bentgrass .100”
Tees: Bentgrass .285”
Fairways: Bentgrass .325”
Rough: Bluegrass/Fescue 3”
Birdies should be plentiful, as the senior tour players tore this course apart over the last 12 years in the 3M Championship. Average winning score was better than 19-under par. The Arnold Palmer-design was modified a bit last year narrowing fairways, adding bunkers and tees to increase the length.
Featured Holes:
No. 6, 594-yard, par 5 risk/reward doubledog leg
No. 7, 381-yard par 4 reachable over water
No. 9, 502-yard par 4 with difficult long-iron approach
No. 14, 437-yard par 4 dogleg around Cavner’s Cove
This is not a tough test, but rather a birdie fest.
Key stats to consider for the 3M Open
Based on results from the senior tour event at the TPC Twin Cities, a good approach game will set up more scoring opportunities. Looking at golf stats, senior Tour winners and top of the leaderboard finishers were strong in Greens in Regulation. Add in some solid driving stats, par 4 efficiency and Strokes Gained: Approach, and Birdies or Better Gained, and you'll start sharpening your game with more contenders and match-up winners or props in pursuit of profit.
Comparative TPC courses might provide you some insight on players that could repeat strong finishes.
TPC Boston 2018 results (Par 71, also Arnold Palmer course design)
DeChambeau (-16) WON
Matsuyama T4
Finau T4
Koepka T12
Mitchell 20
Hadwin T21
Other Arnold Palmer designs include Bay Hill and PGA West
The Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands (Par 70) is another course to review for player stats. 2019 results last month:
Reavie (-17) WON
Bradley T2
Niemann T5
Day T8
DeChambeau T8
Also, TPC Scottsdale and the Waste Management Phoenix Open is worth reviewing in recent years for players performance along with TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas for Shriners Open, PGA National (Honda Classic) and TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude).
Odds at BookMaker to win 3M Open |
|
Brooks Koepka | +725 |
Jason Day | +925 |
Hideki Matsuyama | +1412 |
Bryson Dechambeau | +1650 |
Patrick Reed | +2630 |
Tony Finau | +2845 |
Rory Sabbatini | +4050 |
Viktor Hovland | +4050 |
Joaquin Niemann | +3650 |
Keegan Bradley | +4050 |
Kevin Streelman | +4500 |
Sungjae Im | +4500 |
Kevin Na | +5050 |
Scott Piercy | +5000 |
Ryan Moore | +6050 |
Adam Hadwin | +5000 |
Phil Mickelson | +5850 |
Charles Howell III | +5417 |
Lucas Glover | +6250 |
Collin Morikawa | +5550 |
Nate Lashley | +8500 |
Keith Mitchell | +7050 |
Daniel Berger | +8500 |
Charley Hoffman | +8750 |
Sung Kang | +7850 |
Luke List | +6850 |
Cameron Champ | +9150 |
J.J. Spaun | +9050 |
Peter Malnati | +12050 |
Danny Lee | +10050 |
Jason Dufner | +10500 |
Brian Harman | +10050 |
Nick Watney | +9050 |
Talor Gooch | +11500 |
Jimmy Walker | +11050 |
Cameron Tringale | +12050 |
Corey Conners | +10500 |
Si Woo Kim | +12500 |
Pat Perez | +13500 |
Sepp Straka | +13500 |
Max Homa | +13500 |
Denny McCarthy | +12050 |
Jonas Blixt | +15050 |
Kyoung Hoon Lee | +14500 |
Mackenzie Hughes | +11550 |
Michael Thompson | +11500 |
Wyndham Clark | +10050 |
Russell Henley | +15500 |
Bronson Burgoon | +15500 |
Martin Laird | +9050 |
Field (Any Other Player) | +170 |
Players in the field this week that rank highly in Greens in Regulation (GIR) include:
(1st) Corey Conners, (5th) Charles Howell III, (6th) Talor Gooch, (7th) Brooks Koepka and (10th) Cameron Champ - all 70% or better in GIR.
Strokes Gained Putting is worth review, and longshots are top-10. (1st) Denny McCarthy, (8th) Dominic Bozzelli and (9th) Wyndham Clark. The TPC greens don't have much undulation and good putters should do well, despite the difficulty in determining which players will be hot with the flat stick each week.
Par Breakers, and players in the field that rank highly in birdies and eagles include: Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka and Jason Day.
A 40% chance of rain and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday could impact the play, but near 80 degree temperatures and clearing over the weekend should set the stage for low scores.
Favorites:
Jason Day - ranks top-20 in GIR this year and led the field at the Travelers. Top 15 in ball striking.
Brooks Koepka - ranks Top-10 in GIR, 8th in Fairway proximity (distance shots to green finishes from holes). Top 5 in ball striking.
Hideki Matsuyama - one of just two top-10 players without a win this year. Solid performances continue, and a strong week of putting, his minor weakness, gets him in contention. Solid last week until final round, top 10 in birdie average and top 20 in par breakers.
Bryson DeChambeau - Not hitting enough greens, outside top 130 in GIR, and scrambling not good and neither is shorter putts inside 10 feet. Top 10 at Travelers offers hope that better form is forthcoming.
Mid-range and long shots:
Cameron Champ - Ranks No. 1 in driving distance, top 10 in GIR, top 15 par breakers. T46 last week following a strong start of 66-65.
Joaquin Niemann - Finished 5th last week while 2nd in GIR for the week (83%) and T5 Fairway's hit with top-3 in ball striking. He's 28 under in his last 8 rounds on Tour, as he also finished 5th at Travelers. Hit or miss early season, but 20 year old is finding way.
Keegan Bradley - putting holds him back, but 2nd place finish at the Travelers, and top-30 in GIR.
Scott Piercy - Top 20 in GIR and ball striking, top 10 in Par 4 scoring. Good course fit and four PGA Tour wins have come on low-scoring courses.
Sungae Im - T7 at TPC Scottsdale, T3 Bay Hill, T21 TPC River Highlands. Top 30 in birdies, scoring, top 50 in GIR. Yes, the 21-year-old Korean can play.
Viktor Hovland - turned pro last month following strong U.S. Open. Solid last three weeks and needs a top-5 finish remainder of season into FedEx Cup to get his PGA Tour card for rest of year. Strong putting and 37 birdies made in his last two starts. Bright future.
Charles Howell III - a longshot I look towards for top finishes and he's been on his game. Top 5 in GIR.
Talor Gooch - solid sleeper, Top-6 in GIR and Top-15 in birdie average. Improving and top-20 last week.
Phil Mickelson - spoke fondly of Ryder Cup in Minnesota and great fan support. Unfortunately, Phil has struggled with his game since Masters and outside top 100 in GIR, driving accuracy and putting surprisingly poor on short putts.
Other longshots - Burgoon, Hadley, Hadwin, Henley, Redman, Tringale
The Picks:
Fairway's Foursome: Gooch, Hovland, Howell, Matsuyama
Match-up: Hadwin (+107) minus 1.5 strokes over Lashley
FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay