NFL Week 7 Picks, Props, Parlays and Insights

Our weekly picks, parlays and props continue into Week 7 following strong and profitable Week 6 results. Our posted pick and top play on the Panthers was an outright underdog winner 30-27 over the Cowboys, and part of our 2-team 'Dog parlay that cashed in when the Falcons Buffalo'd the Bills in an outright home 'Dog win Monday night, 24-14. Another player prop winner makes the run 12-0 from Weeks 3-6 and we chipped in a bonus team total prop winner last week as well on the Rams over team total points.

A 3-1 week on picks and opinions leads us into Week 7 following the Bengals shootout win over the Steelers Thursday night, 33-31 to keep their division and playoff hopes within reach at 3-4. Cincinnati minus QB Joe Burrow still trails the AFC North division-leading Steelers (4-2) with both the preseason division favorite Ravens (1-5) and Browns (1-5) having just one win each with Baltimore regrouping with a bye along with Buffalo in Week 7 as the Ravens look for QB Lamar Jackson's (hamstring) return next week against the Bears. 

Along with our picks, props and parlays below, review my NFL tips, totals, teasers and trends for Week 7 and every week at Off Shore Gaming Association. In Week 6, NFL game totals averaged 42.1 points per game - the lowest scoring week this season and more than 4 points below the season average. 

Potential for additional player props added ahead of Sunday games and into the Monday Night Football doubleheader as we research, review, handicap and study the stats, strategies and matchups to provide you more winning information you can bet on. 

Bet on NFL Football at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

NFL Week 7 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites as of Monday night plus game totals, and division games in bold. 

- Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Cincinnati, 45.5 (Bengals win 33-31)
- LA Rams (-3) vs. Jacksonville, 44.5 (London)
- Las Vegas at Kansas City (-12), 45.5
- Miami at Cleveland (-2.5), 37
- New England (-7) at Tennessee, 42.5
- New Orleans at Chicago (-5), 46.5
- Philadelphia (-1.5) at Minnesota, 44
- Carolina (-1.5) at NY Jets, 42
- Indianapolis at LA Chargers (-1), 48
- NY Giants at Denver (-7), 40.5
- Washington (-1.5) at Dallas, 54.5
- Green Bay (-6.5) at Arizona, 45
- Atlanta at San Francisco (-1.5), 47 SNF
- Tampa Bay at Detroit (-5.5), 52.5 MNF
- Houston at Seattle (-3), 41 

Bye weeks: Ravens and Bills 

One underrated reason the Eagles offense has struggled? Field position.

Per @SheilKapadia, the Eagles have the worst average starting spot in the NFL just getting it to the 25.1 yard line after kickoffs.

For comparison, Washington starts at the 34.3, nearly a full first down… https://t.co/8X21oKZLkK pic.twitter.com/osvEOds2RN

— Fly Eagles Fly Bets (@Fly_EaglesBets) October 16, 2025

NFL Week 7 Picks

Be sure to review the NFL injury reports along with NFL weather as rain and some stronger winds is forecast in a number of NFL cities including Cleveland. 

Early week line moves continue to impact potential picks and ratings, and uncertainty of some quarterbacks and other injuries impacting matchups. 

Picks: Rams, Browns Seahawks   
Opinions: Falcons, Vikings 

More picks, opinions, parlays and props on Saturday and Sunday.

3-team parlay: Pass  
2-team 'Dog parlay: Pass

Last week's 2-team 'Dog parlay won, and if you did a moneyline underdog parlay, you cashed in at about +650 odds. I did better than that on Monday Night Football with a moneyline parlay on the Falcons and Bears at better than +750 odds. 

NFL Player Props And Picks 

You can check out our NFL Week 3 and NFL Week 4 (7-0) player props along with Week 5 and Week 6. Player props are 12-0 since Week 3 plus additional bonus props and picks winners. 

Rams RB Kyren Williams - Over 66.5 rushing yards. Last week's RB Rico Dowdle sailed over his player prop yardage to make it a 12-0 run for Fairway's Forecast posting player props since Week 3 at OSGA. Williams figures to be the Rams workhorse this week in the rain in London with injuries impacting matchups and production as well, and Rams star WR Puka Nacua (ankle) likely out with the Rams on a bye next week. Jaguars LB Devin Lloyd, the AFC defensive player of the month for September, didn’t make the trip because of a calf injury. Rams backup RB Blake Corum (ankle) missed late week practice. The Jaguars run defense has been pretty solid, but overall yards per play defense (5.7) ranks bottom-5 in the league. That despite four home games and allowing at least 360 yards offense in their two games away from Jacksonville. Williams had season-low attempts (13) and rushing yards (50) in last week's 17-3 win at Baltimore, but did score a touchdown. Williams will be a bigger focus of the football and Rams offense this week. Find his total carries and rush attempts (17) as available, and while not playing or posting it here, it shouldn't be a surprise to see Williams carry the ball 20+ times. Despite both teams entering with 4-2 records, the Rams still have the largest yards-per-play differential of the week in this match at +2.0. The Jaguars weaknesses were revealed by Seattle last week and our winner on the Seahawk as the Jags allowed seven sacks, had zero takeaways and just 59 rushing yards. The Rams defense is top-5 in sacks per game (3.2) like the Seahawks, and they'll control the trenches and ball in the rain. Jaguars head coach Lian Coen was the Rams offensive coordinator under Sean McVae in 2022, but the schmatic edge in the system favors the Rams too. I see the Los Angeles and Williams rolling and Ramming their way to victory. 

Browns TE Harold Fannin, Jr. - 5+ receptions. Recall our 4-0 player props in tight ends in Week 4, but this is reduced to Opinion, or 0.5 units with weather issues. Fannin replaces starter David Njoku, who played just half the game last week before suffering a knee injury. Fannin had 7 receptions on 10 targets for 81 yards in last week's loss to the Steelers with rookie QB Gabriel passing far too much (52 attempts). Fannin's reception yards over/under is 38.5 against the Dolphins, and Cleveland averages 27% more yards per pass play against cover-2 defensive plays than other coverages. Cleveland will run the ball more this week and with weather issues. But matchup, leverage and layered route concepts point to edges against the Dolphins cover-2 defense, and Fannin figures to be a key target again with 6+ receptions paying +178 at leading online sportsbooks if you desire to add more potential profit and payouts. 

Texans WR Nico Collins will be a target Monday night in Houston's game at Seattle. So will the Seahawks laying a FG, as Seattle is tied with the LA Rams for the best yards per play differential this season at +1.5. More updates, stats and information you can bet on to follow separately.    

Team Stats, Matchups And Notes 

The Bengals beat the Steelers Thursday night as nearly a TD home 'Dog, despite the Steelers holding a +1.5 net yards per play differential over the Bengals heading into the contest. 

Still, yards per play differential is another valuable tool to understand and use when you can further analyze and interpret data, matchups, motivation, injuries and rushing edges at the point of attack. 

This week's matchups with the largest edges in yards per play differential include:

- Rams +2.0 over Jaguars
- Patriots +1.7 over Titans
- Packers +1.7 over Cardinals
- Broncos +1.7 over Giants
- Vikings +1.1 over Eagles
- Falcons +0.9 over 49ers
- Seahawks +0.8 over Texans

The Patriots are laying a big road price of more than a touchdown, which (almost) never interests us despite the big edge in yards per play differential and the Titans rookie QB struggles. But interim coaches are 16-6 ATS in their first game the past 10 years in the NFL (Titans coach) while Patriots coach Mike Vrabel returns to Tennessee where he had success coaching the Titans. 

The Chiefs (-12) are the biggest favorite this week at home against the Raiders. Kansas City will be a most popular NFL Survivor pick, and better than the suckers who picked the big road favorite Steelers Thursday. Now 3-3, the Chiefs offense has scored an average of 31.7 points per game over its last three contests with QB Patrick Mahomes (+225) returning to top form and now an MVP favorite with Baker Mayfield (+210) and Josh Allen (+325. In the last three games against the Ravens, Jaguars and Lions, the Chiefs’ offense ranks No. 3 in EPA per play, No. 2 in EPA per rush attempt, No. 2 in success rate and No. 2 in passing success rate. The Chiefs are averaging 0.16 EPA/play (4th) overall, and now WR Rashee Rice returns from suspension for his first action of the season. The Raiders pass defense is 1.5 yards worse than its run defense, and the Silver and Black are worse against play action, have a league-high 89% zone coverage rate and will struggle to slow the Chiefs run/pass option plays. But KC has struggled in this big favorite role, and Dr. Bob Sports points out that the Chiefs are 7-17 ATS as favorite of more than 3 points against division opponents (0-4-1 ATS last season). The last 7 times laying 10 points or more to a division rival resulted in one win by 11 points while the other 6 were all wins of 6 points or less (or losses). Kansas City is also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 when favored by 6 points or more after a double-digit victory. Still, despite the inflated spread, I note that the Chiefs only have a +0.3 yards per play differential edge in this matchup. But the Raiders key injuries and absence at OT and TE are signifcant, and most matchups are poor for the Silver and Black with a potential blowout at Arrowhead. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.