Odds, Best Bets and Predictions for the 2026 Home Run Derby

The biggest power-hitting spectacle in baseball takes center stage Monday night as the 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby comes to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. This year's field combines established sluggers with rising stars, while a new swing-based format promises plenty of drama and even more opportunities for bettors.

MLB has scrapped the timed format in favor of a swing-based competition, giving each hitter a set number of swings per round instead of racing against the clock. The change places the emphasis back on power and strategy rather than simply taking as many hacks as possible. It also rewards consistency, as batters can pace themselves instead of frantically swinging every few seconds. Round 1 gives each of the eight hitters 20 swings, and the top four home run totals move on. The semifinals pair the seeds one versus four and two versus three, and both the semifinals and finals have 15 swings per player. Players who homer on thelast swing in any round will keep going until they "make an out".

With hometown favorites Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper competing in one of baseball's best home run parks, expect plenty of fireworks before Tuesday night's MLB All-Star Game.

2026 Home Run Derby Odds

Odds courtesy of BookMaker Sportsbook

Bet on the Home Run Derby at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Who Has the Betting Value?

Kyle Schwarber (+310)

It's difficult to argue against the favorite. Schwarber leads the majors in home runs with 32, knows every inch of Citizens Bank Park and has one of the quickest, most repeatable swings in baseball. He also reached the Derby Final in 2018 before narrowly losing to Bryce Harper. Playing in front of the Philadelphia crowd should provide an additional boost.

Best Bet: Worth playing despite the shorter odds.

Junior Caminero (+425)

Caminero finished runner-up in last year's Home Run Derby and has continued his breakout season with elite exit velocity and tremendous raw power. If Schwarber stumbles early, Caminero may be the most dangerous player in the field.

Value Rating: ★★★★☆

Jac Caglianone (+650)

The rookie sensation has become one of baseball's premier power hitters almost immediately. His effortless opposite-field power gives him one of the tournament's highest ceilings, making him an intriguing long-shot play.  

Best Longshot: +650 offers excellent value.

Bryce Harper (+800)

Harper won the Home Run Derby in 2018 and returns to compete in front of his home fans. Harper last won the MLB Home Run Derby in 2018 in dramatic fashion in front of his home fans at Nationals Park, defeating current Phillies teammate Kyle Schwarber in the final round. While he isn't having quite the power season Schwarber is enjoying, Harper knows how to perform on baseball's biggest stage and feeds off the energy that is bound to be soaring at Citizen's Bank Park.

Sleeper Pick: The home crowd makes him dangerous especially at this price.

Betting Home Run Derby Props

Sportsbooks around the world are offfering a dizzying array of props for the 2026 Home Run Derby. and with the new format comes some new betting opportunities. Sportsbook giant BetOnline has dozens of props including the longest HR streaks to start Round 1 (Bobby Abreu holds the record at 10), longest HR streak after the 20th swing in Round 1, longest home run, total home runs hit by all players, highest exit velocity, records and more.

Players looking to grab big odds betting the HR Derby should examine head-to-head markets. For example, looking at the players with the shortest odds, Kyle Schwarber defeating Junior Camniero is +1400 and the reverse, Junior Caminero defeating Kyle Schwarber, will pay a massive $2000 on a $100 bet. Find this wager under 'Straight Forecast' at top online sportsbooks.

And don't forget, like most sporting events today, bettors can bet live on MLB HR Derby Props play-by-play as the action unfolds 

Final Prediction

Citizens Bank Park consistently ranks among baseball's top home run venues, and no participant knows it better than Kyle Schwarber. His combination of elite power, home-field familiarity and previous Derby experience makes him the deserved favorite.

Caminero is the biggest threat and could easily take home the trophy if Schwarber has an off round, while Caglianone offers the best betting value among the longer odds.

2026 Home Run Derby Best Bets

• ⭐⭐⭐ Kyle Schwarber to Win (+310)
• ⭐⭐ Junior Caminero to Win (+425)
• ⭐ Jac Caglianone Each-Way/Outright (+650)

Predicted Champion: Kyle Schwarber

The Phillies slugger gets the job done in front of the home crowd and finally captures his first Home Run Derby title.

Always shop for the best available odds before placing your wagers, as prices will vary at the leading online sportsbooks and can change leading up to first pitch.