AFC Championship Betting -- Chiefs Really Enjoy Some "Home Cooking"

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Jan 20th, 2019 6:51:47 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Kansas City Chiefs are one step away from going to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1970, as they host the New England Patriots in the AFC title game.


When you look at the basic situation, it certainly seems like a tremendous gap in terms of experience between what the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs have managed to do at a championship level. And that is one of the things that adds a whole lot of intrigue to Sunday's AFC Championship Game, which begins at 6:40 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium.

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Tom Brady seeks to go to his ninth Super Bowl, while Patrick Mahomes, a first-year starter, is in just his second playoff game. Andy Reid has been to the Super Bowl just one time, when his Philadelphia Eagles were beaten by Bill Belichick's Patriots.New  England Kansas City pick

Last week, when a lot of people were writing them off, the Pats came out and manhandled the highly-touted Los Angeles Chargers. As if this scenario hadn't happened many times before.

So if the REAL Patriots show up, we've got a "men vs. boys" matchup, right? Is it all that simple? We think not.

This will be the first conference title game ever to take place at Arrowhead Stadium. When the Chiefs last made it to the Super Bowl, in 1970, they were playing in Municipal Stadium and they were still members of the American Football League.

AFC Championship free pickIn the AFC Championship betting odds posted on this game at BetAnySports, the Chiefs are the favorites:

Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-120)
New England Patriots +3 (+100)

Over 56.5 points -110
Under 56.5 points -110

There is no one betting this game who is not aware of what Tom Brady has accomplished. Likewise, there are few NFL bettors with any interest in this game who are not aware of the shortcomings of the Kansas City defense. They are analytical categories in which they are dead last in the NFL, such as "marginal effectiveness" on standard downs. And they are pretty likely to allow a first down when the opponent is on first or second down, rather than third down, when they have actually been pretty effective (yielding just 34.7% success). They give up five yards per rushing attempt, and more yard per drive than any other stop unit in the NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs free pickBut there are a few other things that are quite interesting about the Chiefs. They are fifth best in the NFL - on a per-drive basis - when it comes to forcing turnovers. They have more sacks than anyone in the league (52), while New England's "sack percentage" (that is, the frequency of sacks against the total pass attempts) is lower than anyone except the woeful Oakland pass rush. Think that kind of thing doesn't matter against Mahomes, who is one of only two QB's in history (the other being Peyton Manning) to have at least 5000 yards and 50 touchdown passes in the same season?

Another thing that absolutely can't be ignored is the difference between the Chiefs' defensive performance at home as opposed to on the road. First of all, they have given up 34.6 points a game as the road team, and only 17.4 as the host. And then you can go down the list, with huge differences as they affect the opposition's passing game (not so much the run, actually). But when you allow 19 TD passes with just three INT's on the road, as opposed to 11 and 12, respectively, at home, that means something. At home, the Chiefs' sack percentage is second best in the NFL, and the yards per attempt they've allowed is 5.9, which is sixth best.

So what we're saying is that they have to be looked upon completely differently when they are playing at Arrowhead. It could be the weather conditions, the shape of the park when it comes to wind patterns, etc. But the games are lower-scoring. And the Patriots won't have the suspended/retired Josh Gordon, who could have really laid out a challenge for the KC secondary. We're laying the points with the home team, and coupling this with an "under" for this and the other title game as we'll do a rare parlay.

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