The Miami Dolphins unexpectedly beat the Buffalo Bills back in September, and did better than anticipated in the rematch a month ago in the cold and snow at Orchard Park. But as BetOnline customers may have heard, the dynamic surrounding the third meeting (the "rubber match," if you will) is different.

For one thing, it is a playoff game, with the winner ready to move on to the AFC semifinal round. For another, Miami will be opting for a third-string quarterback to pin their hopes on.

Tua Tagovailoa went into the concussion protocol for the second time this season and has not been cleared for action. Teddy Bridgewater, the backup, is operating with a broken finger. He is available for substitute duty here, but head coach Mike McDaniel has obviously determined that he's not in sufficient condition to make the start. Otherwise, he wouldn't be turning to rookie Skylar Thompson, a seventh-round draft choice out of Kansas State.

The rookie most assuredly won't get a warm welcome from the Buffalo defense, which is known as one of the nastier units in the National Football League. And that is a major hill for the Dolphins to climb as they line up against the Bills at 1 PM ET at Highmark Stadium on CBS.

In limited action, Thompson has completed 54% of his passes with a touchdown and three interceptions. If it wasn't for San Francisco's Brock Purdy, he would be the lowest drafted rookie ever to start an NFL playoff game.

This is a serious downgrade from Tua, who had the highest QB rating in the league and averaged 8.87 yards per attempt. Thompson is averaging just 5.2 yards per throw.

In the AFC playoff betting odds posted on this game by the folks at BetOnline, the Bills are considerable favorites:

Buffalo Bills       -13.5
Miami Dolphins +13.5

Over 43.5 Points -110
Under 43.5 Points -110

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Buffalo's defensive numbers have regressed some from earlier in the season, but they are still plenty good. The Bills were second in the league in points allowed, and they've only permitted six yards per pass attempt. One of the things Sean McDermott's defensive scheme is designed to do is stop explosive plays downfield, and such a thing has been what the Dolphins have lived on.

Both Tyreek Hill (119 catches, 1710 yards) and Jaylen Waddle (75 receptions, 1356 yards) finished among the NFL's top six in yardage for wide receivers, but one must understand that the long downfield plays to both of these weapons were primarily authored by Tua. Whether Thompson can make a habit of connecting with any kind of regularity on those kinds of plays is, frankly, doubtful.

Should we expect that the Dolphins will take another route? They may have to. Only one team in the NFL has run the ball fewer times per game than Miami has, but remember that McDaniel was a "savant" in the ground game when he was offensive coordinator with the 49ers. So he has nothing at all against the ground attack.

Both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season, However, Mostert is out with a broken thumb. And while we're at it, we're not sure whether Pro Bowl offensive tackle Terron Armstead is going to make post, as he is battling knee, foot, hip, and pectoral injuries. Liam Eichenberg, the guard out of Notre Dame, has been ruled out.

The Dolphins have averaged just 16 points in those games they've played without Tua. He got briefly knocked out against Buffalo in the first meeting. In that one, a 21-19 Miami win, the Bills had about a 2-1 edge in possession time, running 90 plays overall.

The Dolphins must run and stop the run. But we're not confident enough in them doing the former, as the Bills will dare Thompson to put it in the air. And defensively, they'll have difficulty dealing with Josh Allen, who is the NFL's best quarterback when he's pressured (96.7 rating). This has the potential to be a blowout. So we're going to lay the points.

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