A look at using more than just NFL Power Ratings to win bets

In case you are not aware, those who make pointspreads on pro football games utilize a certain formula to do so. What they are using is something called a "power rating," which assigns a certain numerical value to each team.

That number constitutes a basis on which to proceed, and then a value is added - when applicable - for the home field advantage.

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This "advantage" can vary according to the team and the perception about how well they play at home opposed to on the road. Obviously some venues are more difficult on the visitors than others. 

Is all of this an exact science? No, of course not. But it is about as close as one can get to coming at a number.

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Here's an example - Team A has a power rating of 96, while Team B's rating is 92. Team A is playing at home, and has been assigned a home field advantage of three points (which is somewhat standard, but not an absolute). This would bring Team A's number to 99, so if the linemaker was using these numbers, he would establish Team A as a seven-point favorite, give or take a half-point. 

Well, whether it's oddsmaking or handicapping, there is both art and science involved. Therefore, you can imagine that there is some "wiggle room" in your evaluation of the pointspread that is sitting before you.

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That's because, while no one would suggest that these oddsmakers are guilty of big mistakes on a regular basis, you may find yourself a different way through which to examine what the number means and where there might be an opening to make a winning play in betting the NFL. 

I may take a look at  a couple of sources I consider to be responsible and see what they have to offer in the way of a power rating. When you've found a sharp one, you'll find that a calculation of the numbers as I have described above will be very close to the number you'll have to bet against.

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At this juncture you have to understand that there are other factors - generally situational factors - that could loom important as far as the eventual outcome of a game. 

I've had my share of discussions with former NFL players, and I've inquired as to how much these situational factors could affect a team from week to week. They indeed confirmed that teams can find themselves a victim of a letdown, whether that is on the heels of a game with a heated rival, or a big upset victory. They can also legitimately be caught looking ahead to the next game, causing them to a be a little flat-footed. 

These are not foreign concepts; they are understandable, inasmuch as this is a game played by human beings. And if any of those other factors kick into gear, it can throw anyone's formula out the window. 

Then, of course, there are injuries, which are a whole separate discussion. Suffice it to say that when the quarterback or another key offensive player is hurt, the oddsmaker is building that into the line. But there may be other personnel absences you may consider to be more meaningful than are being factored into the number. 

And if you are a follower of pointspread trends, those are certainly something you may want to take a long look at. 

In short, what you have to do as someone handicapping and subsequently wagering on these games is to weigh many factors using your own judgment, over and above that which is contained in simply subtracting one number from another and tacking on a home field value. 

That's your assignment, if you want to be a winner.