A handicapping breakdown of the Five Breeders' Cup races on Friday

The 2025 Breeders' Cup takes place once again at Del Mar Racetrack near San Diego. Last year Irish horses won all three juvenile turf races and there’s little reason to expect European horses will not dominate those races once again. The Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies are North America’s best hopes for success, but I expect the U.S. to be very dominant for the Saturday races. The weather is supposed to be hot and dry which may also help the chances of North American horses who tend to fair better than European horses on dry, fast surfaces.

Analysis and picks for the 2-year-old races on Friday.

Juvenile Turf Sprint

The Breeders' Cup starts off with one of the most difficult races to handicap. Trainer Aidan O’Brien saddles three horses in the race. True Love is the morning line favorite and could be something special. She has two wins and three seconds in five races, including a win most recently over Havana Anna in a 6 furlong, Group 1 race at Newmarket, on a fast turf course. She also won a race at 5 furlongs in a Group 2 race, beating Lennilu, who has won back-to-back races in great time at Gulfstream Park. The 3rd place finish at Ascot was Lennilu’s only loss in 5 races and only overseas race. Schwartzenneger has a win and a second at 5 and half furlongs in two races in the U.S. and in the first race lost a 9 length lead in the stretch, making it clear that the shorter distance will help the horse that is almost certain to set the pace. Brussels is another Aidan O’Brien horse who drew the rail and won his maiden race before losing four straight, although the last loss at Newmarket was by the slimmest of margins in a very fast time, beating Aspect Island. Mission Central is the third O’Brien horse but seems like he is a bit outclassed in this race, although he did win back-to-back Group races in Ireland earlier in the year. Cy Fair has won two of three races, including an impressive win at Woodbine last race out after sitting just off the pace and pulling away in the stretch. Military Code is the lone Godolphin entry in the race and though he seems a class below these, you can never rule out a Godolphin/William Buick entry in a grass race.

Juvenile Turf Sprint Prediction: Winner: True Love (7/2) | Second Choice: Cy Fair (6/1) | Long Shot Possibility: Military Code (12/1)

Juvenile Fillies

Explora is the morning line favorite and it’s hard to find much to complain about for the Bob Baffert filly. She easily won her maiden at 5 and a half furlongs but just lost to Bottle of Rogue, who is also trained by Baffert (and owned by his wife) in her second race at 7 furlongs in the Del Mar Debutante. In that race Explora was bumped in the stretch, but she subsequently ran away with the Oak Leaf at Del Mar at today’s distance. In that race she beat both La Wally and La Ville Lumiere. Tommy Joe ran away with her first two races in New York and lost to Percy’s Bar in a stakes race at Keenland, although Percy’s Bar was disqualified in that race for interfering with Tommy Joe in the stretch. Percy’s Bar is almost certain to be the pace setter. Iron Orchard won all three races in New York and with the race being around two turns, the rail may not be an issue plus her times have been incredible, although New York based horses have struggled in this race. Can she actually compete with the two Baffert horses? I believe she can.

Juvenile Fillies Prediction: Winner: Iron Orchard (6/1) | Second Choice: Bottle of Rouge (9/2) | Long Shot Possibility: None

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Precise is the overwhelming favorite for the race despite drawing the outside post and if she runs to her capability could be hard to beat. Aidan O’Brien said she is a classic filly and there have been comparisons to Goldikova, who also lost her first race before going on a streak that dominated races both in the UK and the United States as she got older, including three straight Breeders' Cup Mile wins. Precise’s last win was especially impressive and she is the favorite for next year’s 1000 Guineas race at Newmarket and was a surprise entry for the race.  Her biggest threats seem to be Imaginationthelady, who won two races in good time at Keeneland with Frankie Dettori aboard, Final Accord and Ground Support, who are both undefeated winning two races each in New York, Time to Dream, who won two races in New York and came charging in the stretch to just lose to Imaginationthelady in Kentucky, and Brave Deb, who is undefeated in two California races. Ultimate Love is three for three with wins in Maryland and draws the rail and Queen of Hawaii won two straight races in Ireland and can’t be completely ruled out.

Juvenile Fillies Turf Prediction: Winner: Precise (6/5) | Second Choice: Time to Dream (5/1) | Long Shot Possibility: Brave Deb (20/1)

Juvenile

Eight horses will be running in the Juvenile and it seems to be a two horse race between Ted Noffey, who drew the outside post and Brant, who is two for two at Del Mar. Ted Noffey is three-for-three with dominant performances in the Hopeful Stakes and the Breeders' Futurity and easily beat Blackout Time and Litmus Test in the latter race. The Todd Pletcher trained horse has John Velsquez aboard who has won 15 Breeders Cup races as a jockey. Brant is clearly Ted Noffey’s biggest threat and Bob Baffert will be looking to win his 20th Breeders Cup race. Brant has the ability to go right to the lead or to rate and make a late charge. The small field will definitely help his chances. Intrepido, who won the American Pharaoh Stakes and drew the rail, is the only real upset possibility.

Juvenile Prediction: Winner: Brant (5/2) | Second Choice: Ted Noffey (4/5) | Long Shot Possibility: None

Juvenile Turf

The Juvenile Turf has a full field of 14 runners plus an also eligible and yet surprisingly has a heavy favorite. Gstaad has the outside post for trainer Aidan O’Brien who has 18 Breeders Cup wins under his belt. Gstaad won his first two races and then narrowly lost his next three Group 1 races by a grand total of less than two lengths. He will be there at the end, but needs to figure out how to hold off challenges. Outfielder, trained by Wesley Ward lost to Gstaad in France, but won both his races in the United States fairly easily. Bottas won both his races in New York, holding off both Heeere’s Johnny and Let’s Be Frank in the Pilgrim Stakes, although Let’s Be Frank’s charge in the stretch was quite impressive. Argos won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine in a slight upset and Hey Nay Nay is undefeated in California races, although he’s never faced this type of company. Ardisia has had a very busy schedule for a 2 year old, already running 11 races in Europe, winning five of those and finishing in the money 11 times although he has yet to face graded horses. And Street Beast dominated the last race at Kentucky Downs but his class is questionable.

Juvenile Turf Prediction: Winner: Gstaad (9/5) | Second Choice: Outfielder (10/1). Long Shot Possibility: Let’s Be Frank (15/1)

Get Hartley's betting tips and picks for the Breeders' Cup Saturday races.

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