Pick and predictions for Week 9 of the NFL season

November football means the second half of the NFL season with contenders separating from the pretenders. Week 9 kicked off with another big favorite blowout winner as the Ravens (-7.5) fried the fish in Miami, 28-6. Baltimore is one of five favorites of at least seven points this week, and build on last week's 11-2 SU/ATS run for favorites, but not our Week 8 pick on the Falcons (-7), who lost 34-10 at home to those same dreadful Dolphins. Go figure with such a huge projected rushing edge and positive point of attack play that never materialized. 

The 2 week run on NFL favorites is now 24-4 SU and 22-6 ATS and the Ravens just added another SU/ATS winner. Recall our 57% ATS winners posting only NFL underdogs at Off Shore Gaming Association from 2017-2023 before the huge winning run on favorites starting in Week 11 last season. 

NFL Week 9 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold. 

- Baltimore (-7.5) at Miami, 49.5 - Thursday (Ravens win 28-6)
- Chicago (-2.5) at Cincinnati, 51.5
- San Francisco (-2.5) at New York Giants, 48.5
- Atlanta at New England (-5.5), 45
- Indianapolis (-3) at Pittsburgh, 50.5
- Carolina at Green Bay (-13.5), 44
- Minnesota at Detroit (-9), 48.5
- Denver at Houston (-1), 40.5
- Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) at Tennessee, 43.5
- Jacksonville (-2.5 / 3) at Las Vegas, 43.5
- New Orleans at Los Angeles Rams, (-14), 43.5
- Kansas City (-2) at Buffalo, 52.5
- Seattle (-3) at Washington, 48.5 SNF
- Arizona at Dallas (-2.5 / 3), 53.5 MNF

Bye weeks: Browns, Jets, Eagles, Buccaneers   

Line moves of at least 2-points from the Week 9 lookahead lines include Patriots, Packers, Texans (Broncos were favored), Chargers and Rams. The Bears have bumped up 1 point but Chicago has injury issues and the Bears haven't been favored on the road since Thanksgiving, 2021. Chicago does lead the league in takeaways. 

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NFL Week 9 Picks

Be sure to review the NFL injury reports along with NFL weather. 

Picks: Texans
Opinions: Falcons, Raiders 

3-team parlay: Texans, Colts, Cowboys  
2-team 'Dog parlay: Falcons, Raiders

The Texans with bro coach/QB combo Ryans/Stroud not an easy pick against the brighter minds of Payton/Nix and the first place Broncos riding a 5-game winning streak. The under game total is a totals tip despite Broncos games scoring 60+ points the past two weeks. But Denver lost their first two road games, and (should have) lost their last two at Philadelphia and in London against the pitiful, incompetent Jets and their bro coach/QB combo in a 13-11 final. Texans offense improved past three games to 6.0 yards per play, although against banged up or lesser defenses while the Broncos bring more pressure but will play without Defensive Player of the Year CB Pat Surtain. Texans defense can slow Broncos running backs with QB Nix under more pressure, scrambling and running more while limited to shorter passes, tighter cover 4 looks and hopefully more mistakes.

Check back for more picks and added teams to parlay Sunday and follow my Week 9 tips, totals, teasers and trends for more winners and totals picks with information you can bet on. NFL Player Props tips, totals, teasers and trends for more winners and totals picks with information you can bet on. That includes rushing stats and point of attack play another handicapping tool as you evaluate matchups and advanced stats each week.

Our posted game totals at OSGA went 2-0 in Week 8, and team totals 1-1. Looking at this week's matchups, the NFL-best Colts (7-1) are -3 at Pittsburgh, whose defense was throttled again by the Packers last week allowing more than 450 yards at 7.2 yards per play in a 35-25 road win by Green Bay. The Colts have a +1.3 yards per play differential in this week's matchup with the Steelers, and Indy also has a +60 rushing yards per game differential edge. 

By the way, teams that out-rushed their opponent by at least 30 years in Week 8 games went 12-0 ATS. If it were only that easy, as the Falcons projected to control point of attack play and outrush the Dolphins badly, but Miami ran the ball 37 times for 141 yards to just 17 rushing attempts by the Falcons for 45 yards with RB Bijan Robinson shut down. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game are hitting better than 80% ATS again this season. 

Kansas City at Buffalo

The Chiefs (26.8) and Bills (29.6) are among the highest scoring teams in the league and just behind the Colts (33.8 points per game) in the AFC. But Indy has played a softer schedule, and I provide more stats, insight and analysis in the Chiefs-Bills matchup along with top offenses and information you can bet on in my coverage at BetOnline. A high-scoring shootout is anticipated, as I also review at BetOnline and OSGA in the Week 9 tips, totals, teasers and trends. Bills QB Josh Allen rush attempts and rush yards are in play to the 'over' as player prop options as well.  

NFL Player Props 

- Commanders QB Jayden Daniels - Under 228.5 passing yards.

Daniels returns to action after missing last week's game (hamstring). But he passed for just 156 and 211 yards the previous two games against the putrid Cowboys and Bears defenses tied for worst in league allowing 6.2 yards per play with the Dallas pass defenders defenseless. Seattle’s defense is conceding just 5.4 yards per play despite still missing top safety Love. Washington top WR McLaurin is out, and LT Tunsil is questionable with Seattle's defense also slowing the run allowing a league-low -0.26 EPA/rush. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald disguises coverage with success against predictable spread looks, and Daniels and the Commanders will play more dink, dunk, short pitch and catch. I would also only consider Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt under his rushing total and longest rush as options but not adding as player props picks or opinions. 

Also reviewing more for Sunday day games, and looking at player props in the Cardinals-Cowboys Monday Night Football game.

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FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.    

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