Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores
12:00 PM ET
The current (10/10) college football betting odds 5Dimes is displaying have Vanderbilt as a 7.5-point underdog in this SEC contest.
The #14 Florida Gators have won 4 straight games since an early season loss to Kentucky. The last 3 of those victories have come over SEC opponents. The Gators will enter this contest against perennial SEC doormat Vanderbilt after last Saturday’s huge win over then #5 LSU, and further knowing that #2 Georgia is on tap next. Florida’s overconfidence may come into play on Saturday. After all, they’ve gone 26-1 in their last 27 games against the Commodores. This is a classic trap game and flat spot for the road favorite Gators.
Speaking of Georgia, Vanderbilt traveled to Athens last Saturday and got hammered 41-13. Despite their two decades plus of futility against Florida, the Commodores are a respectable 14-10 ATS during the previous 24 meetings.
Any college football conference home underdog of 4.0 to 10.0 points (Vanderbilt) that’s coming off an away loss by 28 points or more, versus an opponent (Florida) who’s won their previous 3 games played and all of which were against conference foes, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 12-0 ATS since 1994.
Pick: Vanderbilt +7.5
Michigan State Spartans @ Penn State Nittany Lions
3:30 PM ET
Presently (10/10), the top offshore sportsbooks have Penn State installed as a 13.5-point favorite in this Big Ten matchup. Michigan State has gone 4-1 in their last 5 games played against Penn State, and that includes last season’s 27-24 home win over the Nittany Lions.
Penn State will look to rebound from a disheartening 27-26 home loss to #3 ranked Ohio State. It marked the 2nd straight season in which they lost to the Buckeyes by exactly 1 point. They did have last Saturday off, but it’s still a huge emotional hurdle to overcome. It’s worth noting, this is a Penn State team that barely survived as a 24.5-point home favorite during a 45-38 overtime win over Appalachian State in their season opener. Since 2014, Penn State is 0-4 ATS in conference games following a home loss and they lost straight up on 3 of those occasions.
Michigan State was upset 29-19 by Northwestern last Saturday and it transpired while closing as a 10.5-point home favorite. That defeat dropped the Spartans season record to 3-2 (.600).
Since 2011, Michigan State has gone an extremely profitable 11-2 ATS (84.6%) as a conference underdog of 17.0-points or less, and the Spartans won 9 of those 13 contests straight up. Moreover, if Michigan State was playing in their first 7 games of the season, they improved to 5-0 SU&ATS as conference underdogs when in that identical situation.
Any college football conference away underdog of 3.0 to 14.0-points (Michigan State), coming off a conference home double-digit favorite straight up loss by 27 points or less, and they own a win percentage of .300 to .714, resulted in those away underdogs going a terrific 34-4 ATS (89.4%) since 1991.
Pick: Michigan State +13.5
Texas A&M Aggies @ South Carolina Gamecocks
At this present time, the betting odds at BetOnline have Texas A&M installed as a 2.5-point favorite. Since 2014, Texas A&M has won all 4 games played against South Carolina. Nevertheless, the Gamecocks covered in each of the previous 3 meetings.
Texas A&M enters this week on a modest 2-game win streak. The Aggies are fresh off an intense 21-14 overtime win at home last Saturday against then undefeated and #13 ranked Kentucky. Considering their recent success against Saturday’s upcoming SEC opponent, and facing them on the road after such an uplifting win, it sets up to be a dangerous situation for #22 Texas A&M.
South Carolina is coming off last week’s much needed confidence boosting 37-35 home win over a very good Missouri Tigers team. Since 2016, South Carolina has gone an unscathed 5-0 SU&ATS at home when their point-spread is +4.5 to -4.5. Ironically, since 2015, all college football teams who’s point-spread is +4.5 to -4.5 that are coming off a home win by 3 points or fewer, ended up with them going 6-0 SU&ATS. These ATS facts, regardless of the small sample size, provides ample betting value when making one of my college football picks.
Pick: South Carolina +2.5