Identifying NCAA Underdogs and Parlays for Profit 

The second half of the college football season allows us to incorporate additional statistical profiles into our handicap and use point of attack play with offensive balance and defensive dominance to our advantage. 

We continue our risk vs. reward and search for value with both competitively-priced live underdogs and big ‘Dogs like Purdue this week. Now 14-11 ATS this season with 8 outright underdog winners in our weekly Fairway's Football Forecast selecting only underdogs, let's see if we can knock off another Top-5 team after four Top 10 teams tumbled in losses last week, including Penn State as a double-digit favorite and undefeated No. 2-ranked Georgia. Why not undefeated Ohio State (7-0) this week, as the Buckeyes are still over-valued and 0-3 ATS in their last three games while still challenging for a Big Ten title and college football playoff spot. 

As power ratings, performances and perceptions continue to change and the sportsbooks make adjustments in price, we continue to adjust and note not only statistical strength that supports our position, but scheduling, motivation and letdown situations and profiles that point us towards more winners and profit. 

Here’s a brief recap of some underdogs of note that won outright last week.

Virginia (+7) vs Miami – Cavaliers won 16-13
UL Monroe (+6.5) at Coastal Carolina – Warhawks won 45-20
Charlotte (+9.5) vs Western Kentucky – 49ers won 40-14
Liberty (+10.5) vs Troy – Flames won 22-16
Oregon (+3.5) vs Washington – Ducks won 30-27 in OT
Iowa State (+5.5) vs West Virginia – Cyclones won 30-14
Tennessee (+15.5) at Auburn – Volunteers won 30-24
Kansas State (+6) vs Oklahoma State – Wildcats won 31-12
LSU (+6.5) vs Georgia – Tigers won 36-16
Michigan State (+14) at Penn State – Spartans won 21-17
UCLA (+7) at California – Bruins won 37-7

Let’s continue our pursuit of profit in Fairway’s Foursome as we fire for the flag and go for the green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast. Prudent plays on straight bets adding in some money lines and small parlays for profit.  

Bet college football underdogs at Elite-Rated reduced juice sportsbook 5Dimes, where we get this week's best numbers.

313 Cincinnati (+3.5) at Temple – Bearcats Money Line +145
319 Maryland (+9.5) at Iowa – Terrapins Money Line +290
334 Purdue (+13) vs Ohio State - Boilermakers Money Line +400
397 Memphis (+10) at Missouri – Tigers Money Line +310

$20 4-Team Parlay = $220
$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $3,897

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Cincinnati at Temple – Key game in the American Athletic East division, where Temple (4-3) is on a roll and 3-0 in AAC play. The Owls have covered 5-straight games, including last week's narrow come-from-behind win over Navy, 24-17. Defense, special teams and turnovers have lifted the Owls. But Cincinnati (6-0) is unbeaten and rested and ready off its bye for the challenge. The Bearcats are nearly a '200 Club' offense with balance, rushing for just under 200 yards per game led by RB Michael Warren and emerging dual threat QB Desmond Ridder (14 total TDs). Quality coaching from former Ohio State assistant and 2nd year Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickel has brought the Bearcats back with an offense averaging more than 410 YPG with balance vs FBS foes and much improved defense currently top-5 in the country allowing less than 290 YPG. Both teams pass defenses are top-10, but the Bearcats have a stronger net yards per play and we like Cincinnati to stay unbeaten in their first test as a ranked team. 

Maryland at Iowa - I played Maryland early in the week and also used them in the Wise Guys contest, where I'm currently tied for 2nd out or more than 50 handicappers and 5-1 on Best Bets. The Terps were not a best bet, but the sharps are betting on Maryland (4-2) and their top-15 defense to slow surging Iowa (5-1). The Hawkeyes burned us last week in a 42-16 road win at Indiana, as QB Stanley passed for 6 touchdowns. Indiana took money late, and now bettors are trying to get their money back. Maryland allows just 311 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. Iowa's defensive stat profile is even better at 293 YPG and 4.4 YPPL. That's why we also played UNDER the total earlier, which has dropped to 45.5 as winds of 25+ MPH are scheduled for Saturday in Iowa City. Maryland was good enough to beat Texas on a neutral field with identical total yards just over 400. The Terps will play to its strength on offense, running for 235 YPG and 6.0 yards per rush; both top-10 in the country. Iowa's run defense has been strong allowing 82 rushing YPG. Who wins the battle in the trenches? Iowa's lone loss was on this field to Wisconsin, who has a very similar rushing stat profile as Maryland, and the Badgers pounded the ball on the ground 44 times for 210 yards. Solid defensive running 'Dog with positive yards-per-play differential is a proven profile for profit, and we get our money back with Maryland.  

Ohio State at Purdue - Purdue (3-3) has recovered from an 0-3 start and is now on a 3-0 SU/4-0 ATS run. Just the opposite for overpriced Ohio State (7-0), who is up to No. 2 in the college polls and remains undefeated. But the Buckeye's are on a 0-3 ATS slide and struggled last week against Minnesota. That 30-14 victory as 30-point chalk saw the Buckeyes in a close contest at home and out-rushed by the Gophers 178-92. Fortunately, a +3 turnover margin favored Ohio State, and teams with a +3 TO margin are now 55-8 ATS this season. The Buckeye's may still get their share of points with QB Haskins tossing 28 TDs this season on better than 70% completions, but Purdue QB Blough leads a dynamic Boilers offense averaging more than 500 YPG with lightning bolt freshman WR Rondale Moore, who will impress the national TV prime time audience again. The 'Boilers have 24 plays of 30 or more yards this season to rank among the very best in the country while Ohio State's defense has been among the worst allowing big plays. Purdue is riding a wave of momentum while playing at a high level and out-yarding opponents by nearly 100 yards per game this season. Both teams allowing 5.5 yards per play (YPPL) this year, but Purdue's defense has improved and last three games Purdue allowing 5.0 YPPL while Ohio State has allowed more than 450 yards per game and 6.0 YPPL its last three games feeling the effects of losing its defensive leader Nick Bosa (surgery). Prime Time ABC 'Dogs 7-2 ATS this season and we'll profit with Purdue as our big 'Dog in the Big Ten this week. 

Memphis at Missouri - If you read my college football article isolating strong, balanced offensive teams, you'll see the Memphis Tigers on the list of 15 teams that meet selected criteria of balanced and efficient offensive production. Memphis (3-3) runs for 267 YPG at a nation-leading 7.4 yards per rush as RB Darrell Henderson is already over 1,000 rushing yards at 10.3 YPR and 13 touchdowns. Quarterback Brady White balanced the attack with more than 1,700 passing yards and a 15/1 TD-to-INT ratio. Lone concern this week is a letdown for Memphis, who led unbeaten UCF last week 30-14 at halftime but lost 31-30; a cover for us on these pages. We also had Missouri (3-3) last week and lost by a half-point in the Tigers 39-10 loss at No. 1 Alabama, as Mizzu failed to punch in a late backdoor TD in the red zone after allowing spread covering TD and safety in the fourth quarter. Missouri has now lost 3-straight to stronger SEC teams, but last week's 210 yards offense won't cut it against Memphis. Missouri has the firepower led by QB Drew Lock, but its deficient defense allows 450 YPG at 6.4 YPPl. Memphis is better on defense (5.2 YPPL) while facing a weaker schedule overall, but with one of the most explosive offenses in the country (7.7 YPPL) and a strong net yards-per-play differential greater than 3.0 favoring Memphis, this becomes an automatic play and a proven profit producer. 

Best wishes in your Week 8 College Football picks, and hope you profit from my experience as we fire for the flag and more green on the gridiron. Shop the best lines at the leading online sportsbooks. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay