Fairway's Football Forecast - NFL Week 10 Underdog Picks And Insights



FairwayJay fires in NFL Week 10 looking for more underdog winners and profits with a 65-40 ATS mark the past 2+ seasons.

Underdog free picks for NFL week 10

For the second straight week no regrets with our underdog picks other than to not include the winners we mentioned as bets on the Dolphins and Ravens, who both won by more than a touchdown as underdogs. Our 0-2 result on these pages include the Buccaneers bending us over for the second straight week. Sure it's frustrating when we bet the Bucs +6 and +5, which was the release number late week. Tampa Bay took Seattle to overtime, AFTER the Seahawks kicker missed a 40 yard field goal at the end of regulation. Then the Bucs lose the coin toss, and Russell Wilson takes Seattle down the field and tosses his 5th touchdown pass of the game for a 40-34 Seahawks win. Brutal. The Bucs had 418 yards offense and 29 first downs, second highest total of the week to Seattle's 31. Quarterback Jameis Winston did not throw an interception, but he managed to fumble on the Seattle 40 with the game tied in the 4th quarter and Seattle turned that into a field goal. Eleven penalties against Tampa Bay to four for Seattle.

As you bellyached about that beat on the Buccaneers, the Lions played late afternoon and out-gained the Raiders 473 (7.5 yards per play) to 450 (6.6) and were on the wrong end of a 2-0 turnover margin (now 5-22 ATS for teams with exactly minus 2 TO differential, and 4-21 ATS for teams with negative 3 or more turnover margin in a game). Trailing 31-24, the Lions had first and goal in the final minute, 2nd and goal at the Raiders 4 and 4th and goal at the 1-yard line and failed to get the touchdown.

On to Week 11, as we now stand 14-13 ATS this season on our underdog only picks on these pages, and 65-40 ATS (62%) the past 2+ seasons. We add a fifth player to our foursome and hold nothing back this week. 

NFL Week 10 - Sunday, Nov. 10

262 Cincinnati (+10.5) vs. Baltimore - Bengals Moneyline +400
263 Carolina (+5) at Green Bay - Panthers Moneyline +125
465 Detroit (+3, -120) at Chicago - Lions Moneyline +190 
270 Pittsburgh (+4) vs LA Rams - Steelers Moneyline +175
271 Minnesota (+3) at Dallas - Vikings Moneyline+145

Bengals free pickThe Bengals (0-8) are brutal and stink. No surgar coating it or the clueless coach and offensive coordinator that haven't figured out that a running game is a key part of an offensive attack. This play makes no sense from a fundamental standpoint and goes against my rushing guidelines. Rest assured the Ravens will out-rush and out-gain the Bengals. The Bengals run the ball for a league-low 59 yards per game and the Ravens (6-2) rush for a league-high 205 yards per game. The Ravens and QB Jackson run the ball nearly 38 times per game; tied with the 49ers for most rushing attempts per game. The Bengals run the ball for a league-low 18 times per game; tied for fewest attempts with the Falcons. Adding to our concern is that in the first meeting this season in Week 6, the Ravens rushed for 269 yards (43 attempts) to just 33 rush yards (14 attempts) for the bumbling Bengals, who were out-gained by Baltimore 497-250. Ravens QB Jackson rushed for 150+ and passed for 200+. Miraculously, Cincinnati (+11) came through the back door to steal the money in a 23-17 defeat. But the situation is too strong favoring Cincinnati, who enters off a bye for the divisional rematch while the Ravens come off their biggest win of the season knocking out the Super Bowl champion and previously undefeated Patriots. Winless teams off a bye from game 5 forward are 19-3 ATS playing a .500 or greater opponent. Also, losing teams off a bye are 30-6 ATS as home 'Dogs of more than 5 points against teams not off a bye week. Division teams on the road a week after upsetting the Super Bowl champs are also 7-25 SU/ATS according to Playbook. No regrets for recent weeks picks in defeat, and let's hope we don't regret this one with the fundamentals at the point of attack clearly favoring the Ravens. Contrary call on the brutal Bengals, so hold your nose and bet a little knowing too that rookie QB Ryan Finley makes his NFL debut for Cincinnati.  

Many expect the Packers (7-2) to bounce back this week after a near no-show last week at LA in a 26-11 drubbing by the Chargers. Green Bay managed just 184 yards offense while allowing the Chargers to rack up 442 yards including 159 on the ground. In the Chargers previous four games, the Bolts had failed to rush for more than 40 yards in any contest. Red flag alert on the Packers, who now take on the league's leading running back Christian McCaffrey, who has 10 rushing TD's and a league-high 13 touchdowns. McCaffrey leads Carolina Panthers free playthe Panthers rush attack that averages 133 yards per game (6th in NFL) and a NFC-best 5.1 yards per rush. The Packers problems stopping the run are evident, allowing 4.7 yards per rush and five teams to rush for at least 140 yards this season. Well aware the quarterback match-up is Aaron Rodgers against Panthers rookie QB Kyle Allen, who has completed less than 57% of his passes in three of the last four games. Some concern with his first trip to Lambeau Field, but the Panthers are 5-1 with Allen as starter and Cam Newton is now officially out for the season. The Panthers (5-3) beat the Texans on the road despite a 4-1 turnover margin. Carolina remains undervalued as many recall the blowout loss to the 49ers two weeks ago (3 turnovers). NFC North teams went 0-4 last week, and the Packers were the most bet team of the week and buried bettors. More Packers bets than Panthers bets and money again this week, but buyer beware as Carolina is capable of controlling the ball and keeping this game close to potentially steal one at Lambeau Field with more scoring than expected. 

Sometimes teams just find ways to lose and not make key plays to get the victory. That's the Lions (3-4-1) this season, who could easily have five or six wins but continue to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. The Lions are still playing better than the Bears (3-5), who had less than 10 yards offense in the first half last week at Philadelphia, and enter on a 0-4 SU/ATS slide. Bears QB Trubisky stinks and the team is losing confidence in him. Chicago's defense is still the superior unit on the field, but the Lions offense is 8 points and 124 yards per game better than the Bears. Mini-upset in the NFC North. 

Look down the NFL quarterback list of QBR and you'll see Rams quarterback Jared Goff at No. 25. That's below QB's you don't like to bet on like Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater and rookies Daniel Jones, Kyle Allen and Gardner Minshew. The Rams (5-3) are taking more than 70% of the spread bets at the leading online sportsbooks as tracked by Sports Insights live odds and data feed. We're not buying it, and see the Packers last week as exhibit A on why laying road points greater than a field goal, especially against capable teams, is not a prudent play. The Steelers (4-4) are trying to get back in the playoff chase after starting the season 0-3. The Steelers running game has been better the last three games averaging 124 per game, but RB James Connor (shoulder) is out a second straight game. While Pittsburgh escaped last week on this field against the Colts, we see better play this week against a Rams team coming in off their bye. Pittsburgh has a solid pair of cornerbacks to neutralize the Rams receivers, and and excellent front seven led by edge rusher TJ Watt. He is an elite pass rusher and has a very favorable match-up this week. The Rams interior offensive line is also a sore spot, and the Steelers run defense is a top-7 unit in yards per rush against. Steelers QB Mason Rudolph also has a sub-par QBR, and betting on these teams with backup quarterbacks (15 this season) brings about more risk. The better play in this match-up may be 'under' the total, but we'll side with the Steelers as long as WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (foot) makes post and plays as the Rams favored at this price has no appeal. 

Vikings Cowboys free pickFinally, we'll add the Vikings (6-3) in Sunday night prime time knowing the Cowboys (5-3) have wins over the Dolphins (1-7), Redskins (1-8) and Giants (2-7) twice and lost to the Jets (1-7). Dallas also lost to their only two opponents with winning records; the Saints and then the Packers on this field. Much talk of Vikings QB Cousins poor record against winning teams. The elite running backs may steal the show with Dalvin Cook leading the league in rushing and Ezekiel Elliott a premier performer that likely carries a larger load in this match-up. We'll play the purple in prime time and see if Minnesota and QB Cousins and put the talking heads to bed with a prime time performance as a legitimate NFC contender. 

Shop and compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also check out the bonus offers. including the most recent from BookMaker and 5Dimes. You can also check out Sports Insights NFL live odds and betting data with percentages of bets on teams taking from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks Including BookMaker and 5Dimes. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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