Betting tips for two live NFL underdogs

A poor recent run the past month hit bottom last week, as we took the collar in Week 11. Close underdog losses on the Eagles and Bears, and a never in doubt blowout of the Texans and their clueless coach and defensive coordinator (as mentioned). Neither the Patriots or Rams gained 300 yards offense, yet our underdogs couldn't cover. The Bucs did not hit +6, and perhaps a good thing as the clueless clown that plays quarterback for Tampa Bay now has 21 turnovers this season. Think about that for a moment. Before a NFL game even starts involving Tampa Bay, QB Jameis Winston already has his team down 2 turnovers per game. If you didn't know, teams that lose the turnover battle by two or more in an NFL game are 10-52 ATS this season. Winston is the worst, and he's exhibit A that talent and arm strength only take you so far playing playing quarterback in the NFL. A brain that can think and process clearly, make good decisions and deliver the ball quickly, accurately and in rhythm is more important. So is toughness and leadership. In his fifth NFL season, Winston has not been able to grasp how to do that consistently without making more mistakes week after week. If Tampa resigns him, they get what they deserve. So does any other NFL team that figures him to be their franchise quarterback. 

On to Week 12 with more storylines and market moves as teams push towards the playoffs. 

NFL Week 12 - Sunday, Nov. 24

256 Cincinnati (+6.5) vs Pittsburgh - Bengals Moneyline +235
260 NY Jets (+3) vs Oakland - Jets Moneyline +150

The Bengals (0-10) are the only winless team in the NFL, and I know what you're thinking. No way can I bet the Bengals! Cincinnati is 8-4 ATS as a home 'Dog in division games, but that means little the way this team had been playing. The last two weeks the Bengals finally started to run the ball more, but likely related to concerns at quarterback with Ryan Finley and his 3.3 yards per pass play in his two starts. The Bengals were last in the league in rushing and averaging just 16 rush attempts per game prior to the last two games, and have now rushed for 157 yards (40 attempts) and 173 yards (22) the past two weeks. The Steelers defensive front will make it tougher to run this week, but the Bengals healthier defensive line will also pressure Steelers QB Mason Randolph more. Less scoring is expected and the total has dropped to 37.5, and recall the first meeting the end of September was a 27-3 Steelers win with the Bengals 0-for-3 in the red zone. A week ago Thursday was an ugly game for the Steelers, and not just for the 236 yards offense (3.7 YPPL) and four turnovers. The ugly game-ending brawl cost Pittsburgh starting center Pouncey (suspended) for two games. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion/knee) and RB James Connor (shoulder) will both miss the game, while the Bengals are healthier and return players along both lines (Atkins - DL, Redmond - OL), wide receiver Auden Tate (concussion) and others. The Steelers followed by the Jets at home next week are Cincinnati's best chance for victory, along with a road game at Miami in December. Cincinnati fits some positive ATS profiles off their loss last week (cover) as a winless team, and this looks like the right time to play against Pittsburgh. 

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Caesars and MGM in Las Vegas are dealing Jets +3.5 (-105), but the widely available number is +3. The Raiders (6-4) are one of the surprises this NFL season, and would currently be the No. 2 wild card in the AFC. Oakland is also just a half game behind the AFC West division-leading Kansas City Chiefs. Tricky spot for the Raiders traveling East against a Jets (3-7) team that came to life last week in a rout of the Redskins on the road. Quarterback Sam Darnold is starting to take control of the offense, passing for 783 yards, 66% completions and six touchdowns over his last three games including a career-high four touchdown passes last week. He's showing more accuracy on the move, and Darnold has helped the Jets go 2-1 since his return. Sure the Jets only beat the Giants and Redskins the last two weeks, but the Raiders have beaten only one team with a winning record (Colts on the road), but are still just 1-3 on the road giving up 34, 24, 42 and 27 points. The Jets is Oakland's worst road opponent, but New York is improving and gaining confidence. Raiders rookie RB Josh Jacobs is top-5 in the league in rushing and the leading candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Quarterback Derek Carr is having a solid season despite no top end wide receivers. But the Jets run defense now ranks No. 1 in the NFL allowing just 79 rushing YPG and 3.0 YPR including 41 YPR the last three contests and they shut down the Giants Saquon Barkley. While the Raiders are taking 60% of the spread bets from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks as tracked by Sports Insight's live odds and data feed, we'll go a bit contrary and call for the Jets to pull the mini upset.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay