Identifying Value and NFL Week 4 Underdogs

While every Tom, David and Henry was taking the Cardinals over the Lions last week with more than 90% of the bets and money on Arizona (plus teasers and ML parlays), we stood our ground and roared loud on the Lions in Week 3. Detroit went on the road and beat Arizona 26-23 for an outright underdog win taking back 5.5 or 6 points. Three INT's by Cardinals QB Kyler Murray played a part. 

Unfortunately, the Cowboys (+5, 5.5 game day) lost 38-31 at Seattle with a numerous mistakes and a minus-2 turnover differential. Dallas led 31-30 inside three minutes after a 16 play drive ended in a field goal. The 1-1 ATS week became a bit disappointing especially when you saw how some key plays, penalties and Dallas’ 500+ yards offense and extremely high likelihood of covering the point spread late turned a winner into a loser. The final dagger was Seattle failing on the 2-point conversion after scoring the go ahead touchdown only to get a second chance off another Cowboys penalty which was converted. Cowboys QB Dak Presott's INT in the closing minute deep in Seattle territory sealed the deal for frustrated Cowboys bettors.

Having spent some rare time with one of my daughters this week traveling up and down the Pacific coast highway from San Diego to Oceanside and Laguna Beach, we hit home on ocean paradise off Dana Point. With Dolphin Dave’s Safari guiding us to hundreds of dolphins miles off the coast, we enjoyed a delightful day of near perfect weather on the Pacific ocean in the dolphins natural habitat. Along with common dolphins and bluefin whales, we also enjoyed the closeup sighting of sea lions and plenty of seagulls.

Thus that leads us towards three home underdogs protecting their own den and habitat as the Lions and Dolphins lead our Week 4 forecast.

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454 Detroit (+4.5) vs New Orleans – Lions Moneyline +185
464 Miami (+6.5) vs Seattle - Dolphins Moneyline +240
479 Atlanta (+7) at Green Bay - Falcons Moneyline +275

New Orleans at Detroit

There are a number of positive profiles lining up on Detroit off their upset win last week and returning home to play the Saints. New Orleans and Detroit are both 1-2 after the Saints were beaten at home by the Packers. Detroit got a little healthier last week and the return of top WR Kenny Golladay was a big boost and TE T.J. Hockenson should be a prime target this week too against a Saints defense that is struggling and allowing 31 points per game. Drew Brees is throwing a majority of short, underneath passes and while RB Alvin Kamara will get his share, the Lions as a home 'Dog at this price is a solid play to support.

Seattle at Miami

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is the clear MVP to me thus are with 14 TD passes in three Seattle wins. He’s covered the A— of a Seahawks defense that has allowed a league-worst 497 yards per game. Sure Seattle has played some top offensive teams and quarterbacks in Atlanta, Green Bay and Dallas. But the situation doesn't get much better than this at Miami to support our favorite fish and Dolphins despite Miami’s own poor defense thus far. Seattle paid a price in victory last week as they were decimated with injuries. Check out the laundry list including RB Chris Carson as it comes out Friday. Seattle makes the longest road trip of the NFL season this week while Miami comes off a Thursday night win in Jacksonville with its best showing and extra rest and preparation at home. These situations are where NFL upsets are born.


Atlanta at Green Bay

This one will be tough to pull the trigger for many bettors as the powerful Packers return home off a Sunday Night Football win over the Saints. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is performing at a high-level and making all the throws while delivering the ball very quickly and accurately. Green Bay leads the league in scoring offense at 40 points per game. But the defense has also been sub-par and bottom five in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. Atlanta has the offensive weapons and quarterback play of Matt Ryan to trade punches in an expected shootout on Monday night as the total has reached 56.5 points. When you see how the Falcons (0-3) invented new ways to lose the last two weeks in blowing substantial leads and the Packers (3-0) make the necessary plays to win, you can be forgiven for passing on Atlanta and adding Green Bay to your (teaser) bets. Just recall how easy it looked on Arizona last week as Cardinals bettors paid the price. I'm still flying with the Falcons, even as the weakest of the three underdog picks on these pages.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and betting analyst, and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay