Fairway's Football Forecast - NFL Week 7 Underdog Picks And Insights



A 2-0 sweep with a pair of outright underdog winners in Week 6 moves FairwayJay's 2019 record to 12-6 ATS and 2+ year run to 63-33 picking weekly NFL underdogs.

Four Dogs on this Sunday's NFL card

A solid week 6 with a pair of outright underdog winners in Houston (+4) over Kansas City and New Orleans (+3) over Jacksonville with both teams picking up road wins to remain in first place in their respective divisions. Both the Texans and Saints have tough road games again this week at Indianapolis and Chicago. We had our best week of the season on sides betting and in contests, going 4-1 in the Circa contest to get us to 59% and hitting more late Sunday underdogs, plus one favorite in the Broncos 16-0 shutout of the Titans.

We do play some favorites, and also bet the Vikings and Broncos with both making our major contests and other online contests which saw me go 11-2 ATS in another weekly contest (forgot to submit Thursdays game!) but taking over the lead in a pool of over 50 players picking 14 sides each week with some college (didn't submit NCAA!). A few totals were missed however despite squeezing out a half point winner in the Texans - Chiefs game, but still scratching my head with the Ravens and Bengals. Those two teams scored 21 points in the opening 11 minutes including an opening kickoff return touchdown by the Bengals. So 21 points in 11 minutes followed by four field goals over the next 45 minutes with no touchdowns, until the Bengals scored in the final 90 seconds to get inside the spread in a 23-17 loss. As I outlined how that game would play out at the point of attack in part of the Week 6 insights, the Ravens outrushed the Bengals 269 (43 attempts) to 33 (14 attempts) and doubled the Bengals yardage, 497 to 250, but Baltimore failed to cover. That's so rare with those dominant stats, but Cincinnati did convert a 3rd and 27 on the final drive with a penalty and went on to get the back door cover. The Lions covered at Green Bay in a 23-22 defeat, but the hazards of betting reared it's head with some terrible officiating and calls costing Detroit in defeat again. 

We'll continue our pursuit of profit underdog style looking to avoid the turnovers by our teams which can be so costly. Teams that have a negative turnover margin of 3 or more in a game are 3-13 SU/ATS this season. Teams that have exactly a negative turnover margin of 2 in a game are 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS. So if a team is on the wrong side of a two or more turnovers margin in a game, they are 7-28 ATS this season and just 5-30 SU. Oh, the Packers had three turnovers to zero for the Lions last week, a very rare win but still not enough to cover despite the Packers 170-56 rushing advantage and 447 yards (6.5 YPPL) to 299 (5.4) for the Lions. Review my Inside the Numbers article to see the impact of turnovers, rushing and point of attack play strength and know that in Week 6, teams that outrushed their opponent by at least 30 yards went 5-4 ATS and are 42-24 ATS (63%) this season; the lowest percentage thus far in any season over the past two decades. But know rushing attempts is a key indicator of success, as teams that control the ball, clock and chains and run the ball at least 30 times are 48-8-1 SU and 43-15 ATS this season after last weeks 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS result. Teams that run the ball less than 23 times a game are just 7-57 SU and 17-47 ATS. 

One other note about picking NFL winners. The point spread is always important and it's great if you can bet the better numbers. In other words, if you bet the Bears -3 this week before the line moved to -4 with some Saints injuries including to RB Kamara who is out. Or taking +3 with the Eagles or laying -2.5 with the Cowboys with both available. But here is the reality. If you just pick the SU winner in competitively lined games (6 points or less), the point spread rarely comes into play. In other words, the underdog either wins outright or the favorite wins and covers. So if the Bears win, it's likely they will cover. How much? Well, 55-6 ATS this season on the SU winner in games lined 6 or less (there is slight variance in ratings with some games +6.5 and move to +6 say game day, or others going from 5 to say 6.5 or 7). Last week, I graded the Steelers +6 at LA in their 24-17 win over the Chargers. The line was 6.5 or 7 until Saturday, when it moved to +6. 

This week there are more injuries of note affecting lineups, and now next week as well with QB Mahomes going down for up to a month with the Chiefs following his injury Thursday night in a win at Denver. This week, Ryan Tannehill takes over for Tennessee becoming the 13th QB to start after being the backup at the start of the season. So review the injuries, market moves, bye weeks and compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks as you make your bets and picks in pursuit of profit in NFL Week 7 and the rest of the season. 

NFL Week 7 - Sunday, Oct. 20

453 Houston (+1) at Indianapolis - Texans Moneyline +100
464 Atlanta (+3) vs. LA Rams - Falcons Moneyline +140
469 Baltimore (+3) at Seattle - Ravens Moneyline +140
473 Philadelphia (+2.5) at Dallas - Eagles Moneyline +125

Texans Colts free pickThe Texans (4-2) were knocked out of the playoffs by the Colts (3-2) last season 21-7 and played poorly in that home loss. In this battle for first place in the AFC South, we like Houston, who is performing at a very high level on offense with 472 yards in victory on the road over the Chiefs last week and 592 yards the previous week in flying over the Falcons 53-32. The Colts also beat the Chiefs on the road two weeks ago and Indy had a bye last week to get healthier. But while the Colts were an 11 point 'Dog at KC, the Texans were just +4, and both teams used their strong running game to control the ball, clock and chains in victory. The Texans offense is top5 in teh league averaging nearly 400 yards per game at 6.1 yards per play and more than 50 yards per game better than the Colts. The Texans yards-per-play differential is +1.4 over the Colts as well. Indy squeezed out a pair of very close wins over sub-par Atlanta and Tennessee and lost the Chargers and Raiders (on this field). The Texans resume and play is stronger, and the wrong team is billed as the favorite only because the Colts are off a bye. 

Falcons Rams free playThe Falcons (1-5) will be a tough play for most bettors, and the Rams (3-3) are taking nearly 80% of the spread bets at Sports Insights, which documents wagering data from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks. Atlanta has been awful, under-performing despite plenty of talent on offense and a good enough defensive front. But oh, that Falcons secondary! Allowing 271 passing yards per game at 8.5 yards per pass; among the worst in the league including a league-worst 10.2 yards per pass over their last three contests. But the Rams offensive line is hurting, as is star RB Todd Gurley (quad), who will now play after missing last week along with new cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who practiced with the Rams Thursday and Friday following the trade from Jacksonville. But problems persist with the Rams, who have lost three straight games and were deficient on defense in allowing Seattle and Tampa Bay to light up the Rams defense. Then last week, the Rams offense was shut down by more physical San Francisco with Los Angeles gaining just 157 yards and 10 first downs (2 in the 2nd half) without Gurley and issues along the offensive line. Los Angeles was in a favorable spot with extra rest against a stronger 49ers team off a Monday night win, but LA laid an egg. The Rams were 0-for-15 on third and fourth down and 0-for-6 from 1-2 yards. The Falcons offense has been very efficient in three of their last four games, despite still not getting the running game untracked. But Devonta Freeman did have a season high 88 yards rushing last week and caught two of QB Matt Ryan's four touchdown passes as he was 30-of-36 for 356 passing yards. There is risk on both teams this week, and while the Falcons have lost four straight, the offense has been fine and they did out-play and beat Philadelphia on this field. The Rams are over-rated and struggling and have no appeal as a road favorite even against the Falcons.  

I played the Ravens (4-2) and Seahawks (5-1) game over the total, but also watching the weather as an 80% chance of rain is in the forecast in Seattle Sunday. Pulling the trigger on the Ravens, as the Seahawks secondary is down two safeties and the defense is already deficient allowing 6.0 yards per play. The Seahawks are also without their starting tight end and could be missing two offensive linemen and defensive linemen. Baltimore's defense is allowing 6.3 yards per play, which is a concern with QB Russell Wilson able to take advantage. I'm not a believer in the Seahawks or their misleading and fortunate 5-1 record, as the stats Baltimore Ravens NFL pickdon't support nor does their scoring margin of +19 this season. The were fortunate to hold off the Browns last week 32-28 thanks to a 4-1 turnover advantage, and a missed FG by the Rams allowed them to escape 30-29 the week prior on this field. Recall this Seahawks team was out-gained by 200 yards by the winless Bengals on this field in Week 1. Seattle is on borrowed time, and we (hope, believe, ask) the Ravens to take advantage with their dominant running game with QB Jackson adding to the rushing attack and coming off a 150+ rushing performance himself last week and a 269 yard rushing performance by the team in a 23-17 win/no cover over Cincinnati (should have been by at least 2 TDs). Lamar making mistakes on the road in this environment is a concern, but with limited turnovers and a pound the ground running game that is best in the NFL at 205 YPG and 5.5 YPR, Jackson and RB Ingram should have success and then balance the attack with Seattle's secondary now compromised further. Two of the best coaches (IMO) and offenses that should move the ball and score (pending weather and turnovers) make this a entertaining inter-conference match-up and we prefer the Ravens. 

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Big game in the NFC East with many injuries to consider. First place on the line between the Eagles (3-3) and Cowboys (3-3) in Dallas. The 'Boys have lost 3-straight and are reeling. But it looks like all hands will be on deck for this big game as both offensive tackles are set to return including All Pro Tyron Smith, along with WR Amari Cooper. The Eagles will counter with the return of both their cornerbacks in a secondary that has been torched in recent games. However, WR Desean Jackson is likely still out for the Eagles, whose receivers have dropped a league-high 17 passes to hurt the production of QB Carson Wentz; the better of the quarterbacks on the field for this Sunday night showcase. The plus-3's are gone, but we're going to still fly with the Eagles, who were good enough to win at Green Bay with a battered secondary and more than 400 passing yards by Aaron Rodgers while the Cowboys fell behind the Packers 24-0 on this field in a 34-24 defeat with Dak passing way to many times for a catch-up 400+ passing yards but three interceptions. You can bet the 'Boys will strive for more balance and get RB Zeke involved early, but the Eagles defensive front is still stronger, and should now be better in the secondary with key players returning to the field. 

Check the latest lines and offers from the leading online sportsbooks as you fire for the flag and green in another week of NFL action as we hope to chip in more winners and add to your profits. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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