College football underdog picks, insight and analysis

A 2-2 'Dog log last week highlighted by the Colorado Buffaloes (+14.5) beating Washington has us heading into college football rivalry week at 21-21 ATS this season. That's selecting only underdogs, and there will be plenty of those on our Week 14 card with a double foursome provided below in our weekly underdog picks with insight and analysis. 

As I outlined in my rivalry week article at Forbes with betting lines and analysis, rivalry games bring out the greatest emotions, energy and effort. The college football contests are the most meaningful games of the season to the players, coaches and fan bases. 

While stats and match-ups can point you towards more winners in your fundamental handicapping, it doesn’t work out that was as often in rivalry games where emotion plays a bigger part. So does the point spread, which is often inflated towards the stronger teams at this time of year and those top teams have more to play for with conference championship games and potential college football playoff berths on the line or ahead. Those contests ahead can also be a distraction for some teams, who may already be locked into a conference championship or bowl game and not match the emotion or effort of their lesser opponent. 

As you make your plays and review point spreads, compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks. Also review the betting data and live odds at Sports Insights, which takes betting data and information from seven leading online sportsbooks that includes BookMaker and 5Dimes. 

NCAA Football Underdog Selections for Saturday, Nov. 30 

349 Boston College (+9) at Pittsburgh - Eagles Moneyline +260
368 Michigan (+9.5) vs Ohio State - Wolverines Moneyline +285
370 South Carolina (+27) vs Clemson - Gamecocks Moneyline +1600
395 Louisville (+3.5) at Kentucky - Cardinals Moneyline +145
408 Oklahoma State (+13.5) - Cowboys Moneyline +400
427 Florida State (+18) at Florida - Seminoles Moneyline +800
431 Oregon State (+20) at Oregon - Beavers +850
435 Army (+3) at Hawaii - Black Knights Moneyline +125 

I'm finishing the analysis on these games, but want to get the picks out with a number of early starts Saturday. Plenty of plays this week with our double Fairway foursome during college football rivalry week. Leaving off my alma mater Minnesota (+3) as the Golden Gophers battle the Wisconsin Badgers with the winner going to the Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State and likely the Rose Bowl as well. I'll be watching the Big Ten battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe with interest as I plan on being in Pasadena New Years Day if the Gophers are Golden and beat the Badgers. Minnesota would make their first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1962.

Boston College at Pittsburgh 

Strength versus strength as these two former Big East rivals collide for the first time since 2014. Boston College (5-6) plays with a purpose knowing a 6th win is needed to go bowling. The Eagles run the ball for 260 yards per game to rank top 5 in the country led by workhorse AJ Dillon (1507 rushing & 14 TD's). The Eagles defense and particularly the secondary has been a huge sore spot allowing far too many big plays. Contrast that to the Pitt Panthers (7-4) defense, which has been solid with a stellar defensive line that has allowed just 92 rushing yards per game. But Pitt's starting safety will miss the first half of this game following a targeting penalty last week. The Panthers offense is pedestrian, scoring just 222 points this season following last week's shutout loss to Virginia Tech, and Pitt's scoring offense is ahead of only Georgia Tech in the ACC. Cluster injuries to skill position players have limited the effectiveness of the Panthers passing attack, and the Panthers ground game averages just 3.6 YPR and has not rushed for 200 yards or more in a single game this season. Taking back this lumber looks like the prudent play for a Boston College team that should be 'all-in' for a bowl bid and had one-score losses to similar power rated teams Florida State and Louisville the second half of the season.  

Ohio State at Michigan

Las Vegas has the best underdog lines on "The Game" and biggest sports rivalry, as Michigan is +9.5 on Friday at Caesars. The leading online sportsbooks list Michigan (9-2) as an 8-9 point underdog with reduced juice shop 5Dimes dealing +9. We cashed on Penn State as 'Dog last week against Ohio State (11-0 ) but did not use on these pages as mentioned, and now the line has been adjusted but we'll still take the Wolverines just less than double-digits. Not easy to buck the Buckeye's, who lead the country in scoring at 49 points per game with their strong balanced offense piling up 531 balanced yards per game with 282 rushing and 249 passing. Combined with a dominant defense that allows just 10.5 points per game and leads the country allowing 217 yards per game and 3.3 yards per play, and you can see why a majority of bets and money is on the Buckeye's as the new No. 1 team in the CFP rankings. Ohio State's also boasts the only defense since the 2011 National Champion Alabama Crimson Tide that has allowed less than 250 yards per game in a season. But Michigan is playing their best ball of the season with four straight blowout wins averaging more than 40 PPG and using a dominant defense over that stretch to give the offense better opportunities for scoring. Plenty of discussion on Michigan coach Harbaugh not able to beat the Buckeye's, and Ohio State is on a 7-0 SU run in this huge rivalry and series. But Harbaugh is 5-0-1 ATS as a Big Ten home 'Dog of 5 or more points, and the Playbook data base notes that undefeated road favorites in their final game of the season are just 5-10-1 SU and 3-13 ATS when facing .700 or greater opponents. Still, this is an elite Ohio State team, but we'll still support the Wolverines with a wager, although not a best bet or major wager, as we don't adhere to that strategy or tout talk. 

Clemson at South Carolina 

This appears easy for undefeated and playoff bound Clemson (11-0), who is rolling and the highest power-rated team in the country according to the Gold Sheet. But you can bet your Benjamin's that the 'Cocks rise up and South Carolina comes to play with a big effort. While South Carolina (4-7) has lost four of their last five games and will be home for the holiday and not preparing for a bowl game, this will certainly be their biggest game of the season looking to spoil their state rival's season. I recall watching South Carolina play Alabama earlier this season closer than the final score suggested in a 47-23 spread-covering defeat. The Gamecocks racked up 459 yards against the Crimson Tide defense and were only out-gained by 112 yards as turnovers and key 4th downs went against South Carolina. Clemson's stock is soaring along with their scoring production which has topped 50 points in four straight games and 45 or more in their last six contests as QB Trevor Lawrence has been nearly flawless the past four games with a 13-0 TD-to-INT ratio. The Tigers defense is also an elite dominator, allowing just 236 YPG which is among the best 3-4 teams in the country since 2011. However, remember what I said about stats and rivalry games, and last year South Carolina had more than 500 yards offense against a strong Clemson defense in a 56-35 defeat. Less important are stats in these rivalry games while motivation and emotion becomes more meaningful. Clemson just needs a win to reach their goal of the College Football Playoff and National Championship. For God's sake, the Gamecocks were taking 3.5 points at home against a strong Florida team six weeks ago and out-gained the Gators in a 37-28 defeat. South Carolina also beat an elite Georgia team 20-17 on the road. We're aware that the 'Cocks are not fully loaded or healthy and without some impact players, but coach Will Muschamp has the support of the administration and the 'Cocks are rested and will be prepared off a bye. The Gamecocks should rise up enough in front of a raucous crowd in Columbia for this in-state rivalry game. 

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Louisville at Kentucky 

Major turnaround season for Louisville (7-4), who is going bowling after winning just two games last year and picked to finish last in the Coastal division this season. ACC coach of the year Scott Satterfield has developed a potent downfield passing attack and QB Micale Cunningham has passed for at least 10 yards per attempt in six of the last seven games. Only Clemson's dominant and elite defense slowed him and the Cardinals offense. Kentucky (6-5) has a one-dimensional offensive attack and has passed for more than 100 yards just once in its last seven games. That's not a misprint. However, the Wildcat's ground game has been dominant over its last six games with QB Bowden under center, and Kentucky's defense has been on the field less and allowed 21 points or less in those six games. Still, Kentucky is 1-4 against top 100 teams in the Sagarin ratings while Louisville has beaten six top-100 teams. Off a blowout loss to Kentucky last season 56-10, we'll call on the Cardinals offense to lead them back in this Governor's Cup rivalry.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State 

Bedlam. Oklahoma (10-1) has won their last three games by 4-points or less after losing at Kansas State 48-41 as a 23.5-point favorite. That's the same K-State team that Oklahoma State (8-3) beat 26-13. Last week the Sooner's beat TCU 28-24 but had a huge 511-204 yards advantage. Oklahoma has now scored 28 or more points in 49 straight games, which makes this a tough challenge for Oklahoma State facing the explosive Sooners offense and sensational season by QB Jalen Hurts. The Sooners offense leads the nation averaging 575 yards per game, and this could be problematic for the Cowboys if it turns into a shootout like the last two games in this series that had at least 95 points scored. Score comparison is not the way to handicap, and rivalry games also bring a different dynamic to the research and handicap. So do injuries, and the Cowboys are without their starting quarterback Spencer Sanders (thumb). But Hawaii transfer Dru Brown has performed well the past 1+ games throwing 3 touchdown passes without an interception. However, more than half his passes in last week's win were swing routes or screens and we have some concerns if the Cowboys fall behind by three touchdowns. But Oklahoma State has the nation's leading rusher Chuba Hubbard (1,832 yards) to chew clock, and he'll have a shot to surpass 2,000 rushing yards against a sub-par Sooners defense and Hubbard will also be plenty involved in the short passing game. Oklahoma has a minus (-10) turnover margin over it's last seven contests. The Cowboys run defense has been playing much better and the OSU pass defense had three interceptions in three straight games prior to last week. A few more will help the Cowboys keep this game close enough as a big home rivalry 'Dog.

Florida State at Florida   

With Willie Taggart out as coach at FSU the past two games, the Seminoles have responded under interim coach Odell Haggins Jr. Florida State (6-5) has gone 2-0 while gaining at least 500 yards offense in each win. Now they step back up against Florida (9-2), and the Gators do feature a top 20 defense. But against three quality offenses the Gators bite was not as strong allowing 24, 27 and 42 points with all three teams gaining at least 385 yards offense. Florida State was slowed by both Virginia and Clemson on the road, but with an extra week to prepare for both teams, we'll take our chances with this rivalry 'Dog after last year's 41-14 loss left a sour taste with the Seminoles in this bitter rivalry.

Oregon State at Oregon 

Bad situational spot for Oregon (9-2), who lost at Arizona State last week as a 14 point favorite to dash the Duck's hopes of a College Football Playoff appearance. Oregon has the big Pac-12 Championship game next week, and while rivalry games are most meaningful, this is not a favorable situational spot for the Ducks. Oregon State (4-7) has exceeded expectations as a team with just a season win total of two (2). So has senior QB Jake Luton, who has passed for 28 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions leading the Beavers to five wins and at least 35 points in six games this season. The Beavers make a bowl game if they pull the major upset Saturday in Eugene, where some rain is possible as temperatures dip near freezing. The Beavers blew an 11-point lead last week in the final four minutes to lose at Washington State 54-53. Oregon State's defense was on the field for more than 100 plays. That's not a favorable situation either, but even potential light rain is not going to slow these two teams against defenses that are fatigued. Another high-scoring game and we'll back the Beavers in this big Civil War rivalry. 

Army at Hawaii

Situational play in support of Army (5-6), who enters off a bye needing a 6th win to become bowl eligible. These Black Knight players make their first trip to Hawaii with an option attack that rushes for 259 per game including more than 315 YPG over their last three contests. Army has only beaten the weakest teams this season, but note Hawaii lost to similar option attack Air Force at home 56-26 allowing 354 rushing yards. The Rainbow Warriors also struggle against rushing teams allowing 5.6 yards per rush to rank among the worst in the country. Now they have no time to transition and prepare for the Army option. Hawaii (8-4) has won three straight games to close the season, and last week's physical and emotional 14-11 win over San Diego State earned the Rainbow Warriors the West division title in the Mountain West. So next week Hawaii plays in the conference championship game and a rematch with Boise State. Potential rest for some Hawaii players during this contest which means far less to Warriors. We know the military men will fight throughout knowing too their rival game with Navy is still two weeks away.   

Enjoy the rivalry games and compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also check out the bonus offers. Also check out Sports Insights College Football live odds and betting data with percentages of bets on teams taking from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks, including BookMaker and 5Dimes.  

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay