College football underdog picks, insight and analysis

Following our 3-0 ATS sweep in Week 11, we went 1-1 in our Week 12 NCAA football underdog picks, but that was a bit disappointing again. Nebraska (+14.5) went toe-to-toe with Wisconsin in a near even yardage and stats game, but somehow did not cover in a 37-21 defeat. A kickoff return touchdown by Wisconsin didn't help, and Nebraska couldn't punch in a touchdown late following 1st and goal at the 5 yard line and came up less than a yard short on 4th down. Wisconsin is still alive for the Big Ten West title but will need to win this week against Purdue and then at Minnesota to win the tiebreakers over the Gophers as division champs.

The season to date record now stands at 19-19 ATS selecting only underdogs on these pages. We considered Penn State (+18.5) this week in the biggest game on Saturday at Ohio State, but we'll pass on these pages. However, I provided another article with some insight, analysis and stats with ATS info for you to consider when evaluating the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions showdown Saturday with first place on the line in the Big Ten East. Ohio State has even more to play for with a No. 2 ranking in the current College Football Playoff poll. 

There are some big rivalry games this weekend including in the Pac-12 where crosstown rivals collide in the UCLA at USC showdown along with 'The Big Game' between Cal and Stanford in Palo Alto. Next week is the biggest rivalry week of the season, and a sneak peak ahead has us likely on Michigan as a double-digit home 'Dog against Ohio State pending this Saturday's results.

Compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also review the betting data and live odds at Sports Insights, which takes betting information from seven leading online sportsbooks that includes BookMaker and 5Dimes. 

NCAA Football Underdog Selections for Saturday, Nov. 23 

158 Colorado (+14.5) vs Washington - Buffaloes Moneyline +475
161 Boston College (+20.5) at Notre Dame - Eagles Moneyline +800
177 Texas (+6) at Baylor - Longhorns Moneyline +185
180 Tulane (+6) vs UCF - Green Wave Moneyline +190

This will be a tough one for many bettors, as Colorado (4-6) is a losing team, has scored less than 17 points in four of its last five games, and has been blown out by 30+ points against Oregon and Washington State. But those games in October were on the road, yet the Buffs played USC tough in a 3-point home loss taking +10.5 and gaining 520 yards including nearly 200 rushing. Then two weeks ago, Colorado snapped a 5-game losing skid by beating Stanford 16-13 in a game with near even yardage and a solid rushing game for Colorado. Again, not flattering, but the Buffs defensive performance was better and now Colorado enters off a bye week and that situation off rest and a 'Dog win is a positive and profitable profile against a Washington team off a big margin win two weeks ago prior to its bye week. But Washington (6-4) has not met expectations this season and has a big rivalry game on deck with a short Thanksgiving week. The Huskies lost three home games this season which has not happened under coach Peterson, but the red flag was the 23-13 loss at Stanford in which Washington was out-gained 482-294 in early October laying -13.5. Now Colorado takes more points, and QB Steven Montez has shown he can balance the offense at times with four 300+ passing yard games. Colorado will still try to pound the ground game, as will Washington. But in altitude and a last home game, we'll bite with this running 'Dog to come under this big impost. Bet the Buffs in their last home game.   

Both Boston College and Tulane are taking 50% of the spread action from the betting data at Sports Insights . Last week there was support for Navy and the line dropped to 7 or 7.5 against Notre Dame (8-2). The Fighting Irish made sure bettors paid a price and had no hope at halftime leading 38-3 on their way to a 52-20 romp over the Midshipmen. The bookmakers adjust again, but too much in this bettors opinion as Boston College (5-5) will bring a strong effort off a bye for this rivalry game knowing they still need one more win to become bowl eligible. Another road game at Pittsburgh follows the Eagles visit to South Bend, but expect full focus and a reliance on one of the top-5 rushing attacks in the country for our big running 'Dog play. Boston College averages 274 rushing yards per game and 291 over their last three contests, and Notre Dame has allowed four opponents to rush for at least 200 yards this season. Total offense for the Eagles is 479 yards per game to rank top-12 in the country, making Boston College one of the efficient and balanced offenses that makes our 200 club list of teams that both run and pass for at least 200 yards per game. Notre Dame is 6-0 at home, but prior to Navy the Irish won two home games by 3 points or less against USC and Virginia Tech, although the Irish out-gained VT by more than 200 yards in a 21-20 victory. The concern in betting on Boston College is its defense, which allows 6.6 yards per play to rank bottom 10 in the country and even worse over its last three games. Still, a big number with plenty of room for for this rivalry 'Dog, who beat Virginia Tech early in the season and Tech caused Notre Dame some problems in a recent very close win.  

We cashed in with Texas (6-4) last week in a 23-21 last second loss to Iowa State, and we'll Hook 'em again with the Longhorns. Longtime football fans remember when Texas would roll over Baylor laying at least three touchdowns year after year and crush the Bears. While those times have changed, the Longhorns have still managed in recent years to beat Baylor (9-1). That includes four straight and twice as underdog. The Longhorns defense is better that its stats as injuries hurt Texas for much of the season. But this game may have less scoring than expected with the total down to 58.5 and Baylor running out of gas following last week's huge disappointment and emotional loss to Oklahoma 34-31. Baylor led the Sooners 31-10 at halftime, and not only blew the lead, but ended the Bears undefeated season. Coach Matt Rhule has turned a 1-win Bears team into 7 wins and now 9 wins this season. But Texas coach Herman is also making strides in Austin in his third season despite injury issues. Hermann is still so strong as an underdog, now 15-4 ATS following last week's cover at Iowa State. Both teams have played a number of close contests since early October, and Baylor has won two overtime games and won and lost two other games by three points. The fatigue factor can be real at this time of the season as teams push towards the finish and Baylor now coming off a very emotional defeat with a letdown likely. Meaning, it will be hard to play at peak performance and Texas can take advantage.

Tulane (6-4) will be pumped to play Central Florida (7-3), who will not win the AAC this season following a 25-1 run. The Knights offense remains top notch and they enter off a late season bye. Central Florida ranks fifth nationally in yards per game (524) and seventh in points per game (43 PPG) with great skill players around freshman QB Dillon Gabriel. But my projections show Tulane can keep pace, and the Green Wave are 5-0 at home this season and have been effective against the pass as they’re yielding the second-fewest yards per game through the air in the conference. Justin McMillian can be a special talent for Tulane, but his struggles with consistency and accuracy are holding back the duel-threat quarterback. Still, in a last home game against a UCF team that has allowed at least 27 points on the road to Tulsa, Cincinnati and Pitt, we'll take our chances with a Tulane team and offense that rushes for 250 YPG and passes for 200 per game. Central Florida is on a 0-6 ATS run when allowing at least 100 rushing yards, and the Green Wave will sail over that number.  

Shop and compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also check out the bonus offers, including the most recent from BookMaker and 5Dimes. You can also check out Sports Insights live odds and betting data with percentages of bets on teams taking from a consensus of seven top online sportsbooks.      

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay