Fairway's Football Forecast - Week 5 College Football Underdog Picks



FairwayJay is 5-1 ATS on these pages the past two weeks in college football point spread prognosis, and Fairway fires for more green and underdog winners in Week 5.

A 5-1 ATS run the past two weeks gets us back to level par at 7-7 following a slow start and some very unfortunate losses. A bad loss by Michigan was followed by a pair of outright underdog winners on SMU and Appalachian State in last week's college football picks

There are two Top 25 match-ups on the Week 5 card, and we'll be adding one of the underdogs to our picks and analysis below along with playing against two other Top 25 teams. 

Shop lines at the leading online sportsbooks, and if you want to check out where the money is being bet on these games from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks including BookMaker and 5Dimes, then check out Sports Insight's live college football odds and see the percentage of bets, most money and over/under money being wagered. 

Also, follow the bye week schedule each week and note which teams are rested and ready coming off a bye into Week 5. There are two games Friday night in which both teams are off a bye, and we're on one of them with Maryland. 

There were some notable underdogs that won along with the biggest upsets and money line payoffs from Week 4. 

San Jose State (+20) won 31-24 at Arkansas hitting a money line payoff of +800
UCLA (+19) overcame a 32-point second half deficit to shock Washington State 67-63 and payoff money line bettors +700, and 20-1 if you took the Bruins in-game betting
Buffalo (+14) toppled Temple 38-22 and cashed on money line at +450
Pitt (+10) snapped UCF's 27 game regular season winning streak with a 35-34 last minute stunner, and +320 money line
Colorado (+7.5) won in Tempe, taking down Arizona State 34-31 and cashing +290 money line winners
SMU (+9.5) was bet down sharply to +7.5 gameday, and the Mustangs topped TCU 41-38 for a +290 money line winner
Appalachian State (+3) was bet down also and upset in-state ACC big brother 34-31 to also cash a money line of +120

Four teams are now 4-0 ATS this season: Auburn, Oklahoma State, SMU and UL Lafayette. Three teams are 3-0 ATS: Wisconsin, Kansas State and Utah State. 

The winless ATS teams are Miami (OH), Massachusetts, Akron and FIU (0-4 ATS), while the 0-3 ATS teams are Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Michigan.

NCAA Underdog Selections for Saturday, Sept 28 plus one play on Friday.

108 Maryland (+6.5) vs Penn State - Terrapins Money Line +205   (Friday)
119 Central Michigan (+17) at Western Michigan - Chippewas Money Line +700
173 Virginia (+12.5) at Notre Dame - Cavaliers Money Line +395
196 Nebraska (+17) vs Ohio State - Cornhuskers Money Line +615 

Central Michigan NCAA  PickOverlay on Central Michigan, who after getting blown out by Wisconsin, has recovered with new QB David Moore taking over for injured grad transfer Dormady. Moore has passed for 534 yards in two games and the Chips defense nearly delivered the huge upset in a 17-12 loss at Miami last week shutting down the 'Canes running game for 53 yards on 33 carries. Western will pound the ball on the ground, but the Broncos defense has now been torched for more than 50 points by two Power 5 programs. Western Michigan lost one of their best players for the season last week, as two-way player D'Wayne Eskridge (CB/WR) broke his shoulder against Syracuse. Central Michigan's new schemes and defense will continue to improve under new coach Jim McElwain, who has turned around teams and programs before. Western Michigan is allowing 487 YPG and 6.6 yards per play to rank near 110th in the country. Back into their class, but stronger defense of Central Michigan as big rivalry 'Dog is the play. 

Maryland underdog NCAA pickBoth teams off a bye for Big Ten opener on Friday night. Maryland both runs (257 YPG) and passes (237 YPG) for strong yardage led by dynamic RB MaFarland and QB Jackson in a spread personnel flex offense. The Terps are not as strong or disruptive on the defensive front, but they nearly equal Penn State's rush defense allowing just 110 YPG. Penn State did shut down Pitt's run game and escaped 17-10, but yards were near even with Pitt slight edge. Buffalo out-gained Penn State by 70 yards and rushed 58 times for 184 yards in a misleading final. Nothing misleading about Maryland's destruction of Syracuse 63-20 with a balanced 650 yards offense. A letdown against Temple, although a defeat was a bit of a surprise to many yet the Terps turned the ball over on downs twice inside the Temple 10 yard line in a 20-17 defeat. Still, rested and regrouped, Maryland's balance and better game by experienced QB Josh Jackson than his Temple performance gives the Terps a solid shot battle toe-to-toe with Penn State. Nittany Lions have played one-dimensional offenses, and now tested by a Maryland team that can move the ball against a Lions defense that has struggled some on 3rd and long. Penn State QB Clifford makes his first career road start and the Lions offense has performed poorly on third down (7-for-30). No surprise of a Top 25 upset. 

Virginia Cavaliers NCAA footballVirginia continues its ascent under 4th year coach Bronco Mendenhall, who has the Cavaliers playing tough defense ranking top 15 in both run defense and total defense. That defense, and this line, is a must take if you believe the Irish will score less than 28 points. Notre Dame runs the ball for just 144 yards per game, and struggled as expected on the ground last week. Following the Irish' 23-17 big game loss at No. 3 Georgia last week, coach Brian Kelly said it was one of the most physical game he had coached. The Irish could use a breather after that physical game and emotional environment, but they won't get it against Virginia. Along with our 2-1 'Dog log last week on these pages, I added a bonus bet on Old Dominion (+29) against Virginia, noting the situational spot, bye week and also look ahead for Virginia to this match-up with Notre Dame. Old Dominion took a 17-0 lead and easily covered in a 28-17 defeat and the Monarchs took money dropping the line lower. Old Dominion actually out-gained Virginia but neither team could reach 300 yards offense. Virginia was laying low, but a stronger effort will be put forth against the Irish. 

Nebraska has been underperforming while the Buckeye's have been burying opposition each week. Ohio State's power rating has adjusted significantly, as has the Game of the Year line from the Golden Nugget this summer, which had Ohio State a 10-point favorite in this match-up. We need to adjust and sometimes teams exceed expectations or the adjusted lines. But this is a huge number for get on the road in Lincoln, and the Nebraska NCAA free betting tipsBuckeye's were a similar 18-point favorite last year in Columbus and escaped over a 4-win Nebraska team 36-31 with near even yardage. Despite the blown game and loss at Colorado, we look beyond the scores and see that Nebraska is both running (220) and passing (270) for more than 200 yards per game. And the pound the ground attack has been improving each week including 346 rushing yards last week at Illinois. Sure the Buckeye's are stronger and perfectly balanced on offense running (260) and passing (264) with new QB Justin Fields 13-0 TD/INT ratio and flawless play. But we'll find out more here for both teams facing its toughest opponent to date. Ohio State has a dominant top-10 run defense, but the Buckeye's have not faced a rushing attack this strong yet this season, and Nebraska's run defense is also well above average allowing 116 YPG at 3.1 YPR. The question on this cover will likely come down to turnovers, which has been Nebraska's problem thus far. But a relatively clean game will give Big Red a big shot to make this a closer than expected finish. Could Nebraska pull off a similar upset as Purdue (+13) over Ohio State 49-20 last year which we called for on these pages?  Probably not with the Buckeye's stronger defense and pressure on Nebraska QB Martinez, but the points are plentiful. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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