College football underdog picks, insight and analysis 

A 2-1 ATS result in Week 8 gets our record to near level par at 13-14 ATS this season. Four outright underdog winners the past three weeks including Oregon State (+11) over California 21-17 last week has helped the bottom line when adding moneyline wagers to your card in pursuit of profit at the sportsbooks. We close out the month of October shooting for more birdies on the back nine of the college football season. 

Take the time to read and review some of our recent articles and insight that will assist you with your college football handicapping. From defensive dominators to the most efficient and balanced offenses, you'll identify more match-ups of interest including Top 25 teams that are defensive dominators and efficient offenses catching double digits this week like Auburn and Wisconsin. 

Some major upsets like Illinois (+30.5) over Wisconsin 24-23 last week and our selection of Oregon State (+11) over Cal 21-17 proves again that there are plenty of underdogs and even the big uglies that can pull major upsets. That includes Vanderbilt (+21) who upset Missouri 21-14 just one week after losing to UNLV as a 16-point favorite. Go figure. Michigan (+9) covered for us last week and the game closed 7.5 in Penn State's 28-21 win with the Wolverines out-gaining the Nittany Lions 417-283 while running 82 plays to just 54 for Penn State. The Wolverines were down 7 points and had first and goal at the Penn State 7-yard line in the closing 2 minutes but couldn't score the equalizing touchdown. More questionable officiating and calls played a part in the result, which can be another unforeseen hazard when wagering on pro and college football. 

Kansas (+20) was a near miss last week in the Jayhawks 50-48 last second loss at Texas. Kansas had scored a touchdown and converted a 2-point attempt to take the lead with 1:11 remaining in the game. Here were the upsets of note in Week 8. 

Illinois (+30) over Wisconsin 24-23 
Vanderbilt (+21.5) over Missouri 21-14
Georgia Tech (+18.5) over Miami 28-21 OT
Oregon State (+11) over California 21-17
BYU (+7) over Boise State 28-25
Eastern Michigan (+9.5) over Western Michigan 34-27 
Baylor (+6) over Oklahoma State 45-27
Texas San Antonio (+5.5) over Rice 31-27
Virginia Tech (+4.5) over North Carolina 43-41 in 6 OT's
Boston College (+4) over NC State 45-24
Georgia State (+4) over Army 28-21 

Biggest card this season and we'll add some additional thoughts on some key Top 25 games with a pair of defensive dominators as double-digit underdogs in and Auburn and Wisconsin.

NCAA Football Underdog Selections for Saturday, Oct. 26  

113 Troy (+1.5) at Georgia State - Trojans Moneyline +105
124 Temple (+11) vs UCF - Owls Moneyline +330
129 Central Michigan (+2.5) at Buffalo - Chippewas Moneyline +120
162 Michigan State (+5) vs Penn State - Spartans Moneyline +175
169 Oklahoma State (+10.5) at Iowa State - Cowboys Moneyline +315
189 Miami, FL (+4.5) at Pittsburgh - Hurricanes Moneyline +165

We support Troy (3-3), who has beaten over-rated Georgia State (5-2) three straight times. Easy to fade a Panthers team that slows nobody with their deficient defense allowing 211 YPG at 5.4 YPR. Georgia State had allowed at least 30 points to every opponent this season until their two recent wins over Coastal Carolina and Army (21 each). Credit to Georgia State for improvement from a 2-win season last year, and an option rushing attack purring like a Panther at 244 YPG. But Troy has the run defense to slow the Panther attack, allowing 112 rushing YPG to rank No. 12 in the country. Along with stronger special teams and pedigree, take Troy in the mini-upset. 

We've taken Temple (5-2) a few times on these pages including two weeks ago when the Owls (+5) took down Memphis and the Tigers stronger, balanced offense. Now it's time to knock off the Knights, as UCF (5-2) has cooled down considerably and on a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS slide since losing at Pitt to snap their 27-game regular season winning streak. Recall last season when Temple gained 670 yards but lost at Central Florida 52-40 as a 10-point 'Dog. Now we get double-digits at home, and the Owls will be going balls out this week against the AAC king pin following their embarrassing loss last week at SMU. Good bounce back spot for a Temple team that is 4-0 SU/ATS at home this season and a solid winning team taking DOUBLE DIGITS at home. 

Central Michigan is the better team with better stats and a team that has been way undervalued since a 61-0 loss to Wisconsin in Week 2. The Chips have gone 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS since and we were on them at Western Michigan (+17) in Week 5 in a 31-15 loss that was closer than the final score when the game closed +15. That makes it look like an ATS loss at some places that track covers and ATS results, but CMU had 437 yards and out-gained WMU. However, 3 turnovers and 15 penalties were problematic in defeat. The Chippewas have won each of their last three games by at least 14 points while averaging 542 yards per game in those contest. First year coach Jim McElwain is a difference maker just as he was at Colorado State before taking the Florida job and now landing in the MAC. Central Michigan won 1-game last season, is improved on both sides of the ball and has the stronger special teams in this matchup as well. Add in a better yards per play differential for CMU (+0.4 to -0.1) versus FBS foes and a similar SOS, along with a Chips run defense allowing 123 rushing YPG to slow what the Bulls do best and 'held' Wisconsin to 199 rushing yards (40 below Badgers average) and we ride the money-making machine with CMU looking to become bowl eligible with their 6th win. 

We missed the best number at the leading online sportsbooks posting this late week, but the situational spot for the Michigan State is too good to pass up. Michigan State (4-3) has not performed as expected (2-5 ATS), but this is still a winning team with a solid defense in a great situation with added ATS support. The Spartans enter off a bye and back-to-back blowout losses to Ohio State and Wisconsin. But this is still a top-20 defense allowing less than 320 YPG. We cashed in against Penn State last week and noted the Lions (7-0) were out-gained by Michigan 417-283 the the Penn State defense was on the field for 82 plays. That came after a defensive grinder at Iowa in which Penn State was out-gained 356-294 but escaped with a 17-12 win. The Nittany Lions defensive front is exceptional, as they are disruptive and get in the backfield and allow just 76 rushing yards per game. But much pressure building and energy exerted to stay undefeated again last week with the help of some fortunate officials calls against Michigan. Good fortune runs out this week for the Nittany Lions against the fresher and plenty motivated Spartans in what should be a defensive duel and a total (43) likely to drop further with 100% chance of rain in the forecast Saturday in East Lansing. 

Solid value here with Oklahoma State (4-3), who is off back-to-back losses as a favorite. Too many turnovers in those to losses with five at Texas Tech and three more last week against Baylor. Bettors don't want to get burned again, but rather prefer to ride the hot streak of Iowa State (5-2), who is on a 3-0 SU/ATS run handling three straight Big 12 opponents pretty easily with double-digit wins. Iowa State's two losses have also been by a combined 3 points to teams that are a combined 12-2 (Iowa and Baylor). Still, the adjustment in price reflects that but with an Oklahoma State offense that averages 510 yards per game, we'll take our chances that turnovers will be corrected and a competitive contest will follow. 

Hard to figure out Miami (3-4), who travels to Pitt (5-2) after losing to Georgia Tech in OT last week as an 18 point favorite. The Hurricanes have out-gained all but one opponent this season, but are below .500 yet good enough to have beaten Virginia with early-season close losses to Florida and NC. Miami has the better scoring offense and defense in this match-up, but the Panthers have been on a prowl going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus FBS foes with the close loss to Penn State. This is an improved Pitt Panther team, but we play the bounce back with a refocused Miami team that's better than they have shown in an expected lower-scoring ACC clash with rain (80%) driving the total downward as well. 

Some big Top 25 games that I wrote about at Forbes this week includes:

- No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State (-14.5) - 12:00 ET on FOX
- No. 9 Auburn at No. 2 LSU (-10.5) - 3:30 ET on CBS
- No. 8 Notre Dame (-1) at No. 19 Michigan - 7:30 ET on ABC

While I have not included some of these teams in our 'Dog log above, bets have been made with all three underdogs sporting our defensive dominator stats. In fact, all six of these teams are defensive dominators. Wisconsin is also an efficient and balanced offense. Auburn has been as well, but the Tigers current rushing numbers put them just below 200 rushing yards per game, and noting too that Auburn has played one of the strongest schedules in the country and still has yet to allow an opponent to score more than 24 points. If young QB Nix can keep his wits and avoid turnovers, the Tigers should cover. Much respect for Ohio State and LSU with their superb quarterback play and explosive offenses while also defensive dominators as well, but taking double-digits with defensive dominators and strong, balanced offenses is nearly automatic, and something we did in last year's National Championship game with Clemson, who took down Alabama 44-20. 

Shop and compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also check out the bonus offers. You can also check out Sports Insights live odds and betting data with percentages of bets on teams taking from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks including BookMaker and 5Dimes. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay