Week 14 NFL underdog predictions and picks

The NFL Week 14 schedule features six division games and the most watched and wagered contest is the Thursday Night Football feature with the Green Bay Packers (9-3) at Detroit Lions (11-1). The two preseason NFC North division favorites lead the best division in football with the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) a surprise challenger down the stretch. Our NFL underdog picks kick off the week with a play on the Packers, and more insight and information you can bet on for the Packers-Lions matchup, including season-long winning props, is available in my coverage at Forbes. 

I'm updating this article and picks throughout the day Thursday, but wanted to post with the Packers pick and my Internet connection down all morning as I work remotely. Please check back along with Friday following the injury reports for Sunday's games and any additional stats, ATS and picks over the weekend. 

NFL Week 14 Odds

Pro football odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

Early NFL Week 14 Tickets

54% DET -3.5 v GB
50% MIN -5 v ATL
59% NO -4.5 @ NYG
61% JAX +3.5 @ TEN
55% LV +7 @ TB
63% CLE +7 @ PIT
53% PHI -12.5 v CAR
77% MIA -6 v NYJ
61% AZ -2.5 v SEA
83% BUF -4.5 @ LAR
82% CHI +4 @ SF
57% LAC +4 @ KC
50% CIN -5.5 @ DAL

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) December 3, 2024

Opinions and Considerations for Week 14 below and an early Sunday underdog Picks on two other division contests as we evaluate the injury reports for all teams and note the changing spreads, odds and adjustments while also monitoring the NFL weather. 

A big Week 13 card and underdog picks produced a 3-5 ATS result with some shake your head results on the Falcons (4 TO's) and Jets, who both had Pick-6 TD returns by veteran QB's including the 90+ yard return TD by the Seahawks when the Jets led 21-7, smh. You cant' make this stuff up. The Falcons as home 'Dog had a 24-10 first down edge, 350-187 yards edge and outrushed the Chargers 116-56 with 37 rushing attempts to 17 for the Chargers. All huge ATS and SU winning stats, yet Atlanta could not overcome QB Cousins 4 INT's and minus (-3) TO margin - a 90+% losing situation. Something may be wrong with Cousins, and his arm, but we'll evaluate more before picking the Falcons this week and also update our rushing stats and guidelines for success in the coming week. 

Our NFL underdog picks have fallen below .500 for the first time this season at 25-26 ATS with 15 outright winners. The 8-year record on NFL underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association is 215-170 ATS. That includes a 70% season (28-12 ATS) in 2021 and last year a 11-1 ATS run in December with 9 outright winners, which we clearly won't reproduce this season.

No teams had a bye week in Week 13, and Week 14 is the final week for byes with six teams on bye including four playoff challengers - Bills, Ravens, Texans and Broncos, along with the Colts still in Wild Card contention and the Patriots out of it in the NFC East.  

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Week 14 Underdog Opinions and Considerations

Green Bay (+3.5) at Detroit - Packers Moneyline +155
Atlanta (+5.5 / +6) at Minnesota - Falcons Moneyline +215
Las Vegas (+6.5) at Tampa Bay - Raiders Moneyline +250
Cleveland (+6.5 / +7) at Pittsburgh - Browns Moneyline +250
New York (+5.5 / +6) at Miami - Jets Moneyline +205
Los Angeles (+3.5) vs. Buffalo - Rams Moneyline +160
Los Angeles (+4) at Kansas City - Chargers Moneyline +175
Dallas (+5.5) vs. Cincinnati - Cowboys Moneyline +205

Do your best to find the best odds as you make your bets and profit from the experience with reduced juice sportsbooks the value play and a number of contests having spread odds options this week at many online sportsbooks. 

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 14 Underdog Picks

Green Bay (+3.5) at Detroit - Packers Moneyline +155
Cleveland (+7) at Pittsburgh - Browns Moneyline +250
Los Angeles (+4) at Kansas City - Chargers Moneyline +175
Atlanta (+6) at Minnesota - Falcons Moneyline +220
New York (+6) at Miami - Jets Moneyline +220
Dallas (+5.5) vs. Cincinnati - Cowboys Moneyline +200

Well aware the lookahead line on the GB-DET game was Lions -6. Now it's -3.5 with numerous defensive injuries for Detroit, and especially along the defensive line (3). Two other defensive players return, but the Lions are also missing an offensive lineman. The Packers are still without top CB Jaire Alexander (knee) and WR Romeo Doubs (concussion). 

BetOnline is now dealing Browns +7, and we'll take it. Nearly picked and bet the Browns in Week 13 on Monday Night Football, only to see (i didn't watch) bumbling Bro QB Jameis Winston's 3rd INT and yet another Pick-6 in the closing 2 minutes result in a Broncos 41-32 win and cover. My chalk-eating friends let me know how great they are, smh, as Winston's 500 passing yards went to sh*t as Cleveland out-gained Denver 552-400 in defeat with 28 fkg first downs and 84 offensive plays to 61 for Denver. 

Sunday update: Added Falcons and Jets with +6 widely available on both teams. Also, still considering Monday Night Football. Sure there may be issues with Falcons QB Cousins and his arm, which I outlined in my coverage in Forbes. The Vikings have won 5-in-a-row, but none against any current winning teams and four were by one score. Siding with Atlanta and value I believe with yardage projections and rushing yards close. Vikings special teams issues could be a difference, in defeat?  

The Jets (3-9) have lost 8-straight times at Miami, and current season run losing 8-of-9 games and 3-in-a-row entering this division contest while averaging just 253 yards offense over their last four games. Six of those last eight losses were by one score, and the Jets could have easily won their last two games. They blew both including our underdog pick last week vs. Seattle leading 21-7 and going in for another TD before a Pick-6. The Dolphins (5-7) were improving with QB Tua back, but beaten badly at Green Bay on Thanksgiving. The fish screwed us late against the Raiders (as 'Dog) at this same price point, and recall the Jets were FAVORED at Pittsburgh in a one-sided loss and a 1-point 'Dog at Buffalo taking money in a game they out-gained the Bills but lost 23-20. Those losses are weeks gone by, but the value and opportunity lies with the Jets while the fish as favorites has flaws. 

Monday Night Football update includes an underdog pick on the Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) as home 'Dog.

More in my NFL Week 14 coverage in Forbes including the Falcons-Vikings plus a bet on the Cardinals as a favorite with insight, stats and analysis plus prop picks and information you can bet on. 

Rushing yards projections

- Eagles over Panthers
- Cardinals over Seahawks
- Buccaneers over Raiders
- Bills over Rams

The NFL sides are tough to beat indeed, yet despite some tough luck and recent results, we've beaten it at 56% ATS for 8 straight years posting NFL-only underdog picks, and greater than 57% previous to that with 8-straight winning NFL seasons ATS. Check out my easier to beat player props here at OSGA on select games and most week's at Forbes including the Packers-Lions game in Week 14. 

BetOnline provides added player props for NFL games including prime time props, in addition to the best odds for pointspreads and total. Halftime betting is available as you enjoy more watch and wager action. Every day of the week, BetOnline customers can get greatly enhanced payouts on pre-selected parlays with Odds Booster. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.