Week 15 NFL underdog predictions and picks

The NFL Week 15 schedule features just two division games, and they bookened the big football weekend with a Thursday and Monday Night Football feature. The Los Angles Rams (7-6) tackle the San Francisco 49ers (6-7) Thursday in a meaningful NFC West matchup with both teams still in the chase behind division leader Seattle Seahawks (8-5). I've updated more Rams-49ers coverage with stats, insight and information you can bet on including player props in my NFL Thursday Night Football coverage in Forbes.

The Minnesota Vikings (11-2) host the Chicago Bears in a NFC North matchup that has the Vikings chasing division leader Detroit Lions (12-1) in a three-team race with the Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) for the NFC's No. 1 playoff seed and first round bye with the playoffs starting Sat., Jan. 11. 

Monday Night Football is a doubleheader this week with the Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-11). The Falcons are still in the NFC South race and 1-game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6). The ridiculous Raiders are tied with the New York Giants (2-11) for worst record in the NFL and race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.  

NFL Week 15 Odds

Pro football odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

Early NFL Week 15 tickets

54% LAR +2.5 @ SF
74% WAS -7 @ NO
54% HOU -3 v MIA
59% NYJ -3.5 @ JAX
50% CIN -5 @ TEN
54% BAL -15 @ NYG
55% CLE +4 v KC
64% CAR -2.5 v DAL
72% PIT +4.5 @ PHI
63% DET -1.5 v BUF
56% DEN -3.5 v IND
61% TB +3 @ LAC
62% AZ -4.5 v NE
55% GB -3 @ SEA
76% MIN…

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) December 10, 2024

Opinions and Considerations for Week 15 below, and we've added a number of early Picks ahead of the injury reports and updates Friday. Any additional Picks of interest added over the weekend, including for the Monday Night Football games.

Be sure to note the changing spreads, odds and adjustments while also monitoring the NFL weather. Rain is loooking more likely for a pair of key matchups affecting the playoff picture with the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) in a big Interconference clash of division leaders. Watch for rain as well in the NW as the Green Bay Packers (9-4) tackle the Seattle Seahawks (8-5). 

The biggest line move from the Week 15 lookahead lines was on the team very few fans and bettors would place a wager on weeks ago. The Carolina Panthers have moved sharply from pk/-1 to -2.5 early week after Dallas (-1) was favored on the lookahead line. The Panthers (3-10) have won just three games this season, but are playing better and have now covered 5-straight games as big underdogs of a TD or more and three straight close losses to playoff teams Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia the last three weeks. 

The big game betting and watch and wagers action that will generate more bets and cash payouts includes division leaders in another Interconference clash with the Buffalo Bills (10-3) at Detroit Lions (12-1). The Indianapolis Colts (6-7) at Denver Broncos (8-5) is a must win game for the Colts to have any shot of catching the Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) or Baltimore Ravens (8-5) for an AFC Wild Card spot. 

By the way, did you know that since the 2018 season, NFL games have gone an UNDER-whelming 2-17 Over/Under when both teams are off their bye week. That's the situation for the winning profile with the Colts and Broncos Sunday in their Week 15 matchup in Denver. In Week 12, both the Buccaneers and Giants were off their bye week and the Bucs buried the Giants 30-7 in another Under-whelming winner. 

Our NFL underdog picks had more shake my head (smh) results in Week 14, as we went 2-3-1 ATS on our NFL underdog picks. Recall in 2023 we went 7-0 ATS on our NFL Week 14 underdog picks (plus a push). Our NFL underdog picks are now 27-29 ATS with 15 outright winners.

Good Lord, the Jets (+6) lost in OT to Miami 32-26 after leading Miami multiple times late. New York closed +6.5, but graded a push. The Falcons were out-gaining the Vikings by margin at halftime, but trailing 14-10. Atlanta tied the game 21-21 going into the 4th quarter before more TO's, fumbles and ridiculous results in a misleading 42-21 final that saw the Falcons rack up 500 yards offense and outgain the Vikings, but suffer a 3-0 turnover deficit (93% ATS losing situation). Then the most ridiclous results of them all on Monday Night Football with the Cowboys (+5.5) losing to the Bengals 27-20 after blocking a punt in the final minute only to have a Cowboys player go brain dead and touch/muff the ball and give it back to Atlanta, who was just trying to get in FG range but bust a pass/catch for a touchdown. You can make this stuff up. 

The 8-year record on NFL underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association is 217-173 ATS. That includes a 70% season (28-12 ATS) in 2021 and last year a 11-1 ATS run in December with 9 outright winners, which we clearly won't reproduce this season.

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Week 15 Underdog Opinions and Considerations

Miami (+3) at Houston - Dolphins Moneyline +137. 
Jacksonville (+3.5) vs. New York Jets - Jaguars Moneyline +150
Tennessee (+5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Titans Moneyline +195
New York (+15) vs. Baltimore Ravens - Giants Moneyline +825
Cleveland (+4.5) vs. Kansas City - Browns Moneyline +180)
Tampa Bay (+3) at LA Chargers - Buccaneers Moneyline +134
Seattle (+3) vs. Green Bay Packers - Seahawks Moneyline +130

The Monday Night Football games will be evaluated further as well and added if interest on the 'Dogs. 

As always, do your best to find the best odds as you make your bets and profit from the experience with reduced juice sportsbooks the value play. We've already lost some numbers on games of interest, and while you saw the difference a half-point makes in the Jets loss last week, continue to pick your spots, and bet selective props where there is more opportunities to cash in. 

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 15 Underdog Picks

Miami (+3) at Houston - Dolphins Moneyline +137
Tennessee (+5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Titans Moneyline +195
Tampa Bay (+3) at LA Chargers - Buccaneers Moneyline +134
Seattle (+3) vs. Green Bay Packers - Seahawks Moneyline +130

No additions Sunday. Note the NFL weather and stronger chance of rain in Cleveland and Tennessee, and decent chance or rain in Seattle with stronger winds in Denver. 

The injuries are significant for the NY Giants, who also start QB DeVito and have a run defense ranked 30th going against the Ravens No. 1 rushing attack. This is the first time in 3 seasons a team has been favored by more than 15 points with the Ravens (-16.5) line up. Normally would consider the home 'Dog at this huge price, but too many injuries and matchup concerns for the Giants. 

We're not on either first place teams as road 'Dogs in the Bills and Steelers, but you can read more of my big game betting insight with information you can bet on in the Week 15 Bills-Lions and Steelers-Eagles games in my coverage in Forbes that includes advanced stats, game totals and player prop picks. 

The Jets have been eliminated from the post season for the 14th consecutive season. Jaguars QB Mac Jones is 5-0 in his career against the Jets, but we're still not playing the home 'Cats as 'Dog with an 18 points per game offense that has averaged just 12 PPG over their last three games and a Jaguars running game averaging a league-low 70 rushing yards per game over those three contests. 

Playbook Sports data base notes that from Game 14 out, NFL teams that went from worst to first the previous season (Texans) are just 5-18-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 2-15-1 ATS facing a .400 or better opponent (Dolphins 6-7). Houston is also +10 in turnover margin this season, yet the Texans have scored more than 27 points in just one of their last seven games (3-4 SU/ATS). Miami has scored an average of 27 PPG since Tua returned as QB seven games ago (4-3 SU/ATS) with FG or less losses to Bills and Cardinals scoring 27 points in each contest. Little reliance on the running game expected for either of these teams Sunday in a higher-scoring game projection with the Dolphins averaging 325 passing yards over the last three games (No. 2 behind Bengals), but noting the Texans pass defense is allowing a league-low 56% pass completions but greater than 60% their last three games facing Dallas (QB Rush), TEN (Levis) and JAX (Jones) with a high-scoring home loss to the Titans (big 'Dog outright winner for us Week 12).

Quarterback changes this week for the eliminated playoff teams for Jaguars, Giants, Saints and Raiders, who are a combined 12-40 SU and 20-30-2 ATS. Giants and Raiders have 2-wins and leading the way for No. 1 and No. 2 pick in 2025 NFL Draft with both in need of a franchise quarterback. 

Notable projected rushing edges in Week 15 include the Ravens, Commanders, Eagles, Broncos, Lions, Buccaneers and perhaps Cowboys?

BetOnline provides added player props for NFL games including prime time props, in addition to the best odds for pointspreads and total. Halftime betting is available as you enjoy more watch and wager action. Every day of the week, BetOnline customers can get greatly enhanced payouts on pre-selected parlays with Odds Booster. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.