Predictions and picks for every Breeders' Cup race on Saturday

Hartley Henderson examines all 9 races at Santa Anita for Breeders' Cup Saturday. He breaks down the contenders and pretenders and hunts for longshots in some of horse racings' richest races.

Filly and Mare Sprint

The 2/1 morning line favorite for this race is Covfefe who has recorded 5 wins in 7 races including a dominating win in her last race at Churchill Downs by 8 lengths. Her lone loss this year was at 6 furlongs at Churchill Downs after she was bumped. No doubt she will get some bets simply because of her name. As a 3 year old it’s hard to know whether she was born before or after the May 2017 tweet by Donald Trump where he wrote "Despite the constant negative press covfefe."  To this day no one knows what that meant but chances are he wasn't referring to this horse. The Beyer speed figure was impressive in that last win but she still put in a couple of lackluster races so I’ll be looking elsewhere. Come Dancing is the second choice at 5/2 and may be the one to beat. She was good last year but has been impressive in 2019. She has recorded 4 dominating wins in New York and her only loss was to Midnight Bisou around 2 turns and Midnight Bisou is the overwhelming favorite in the Distaff later in the card. Clearly Come Dancing is a pure sprinter and will be tough at 7 furlongs. Spiced Perfection and Bellafina were both extremely impressive earlier in their careers but seem to have tapered off of late and it’s hard to win a Breeders Cup without having good form. After winning the Santa Anita Oaks in April it seemed like Bellafina was going to be a sure Breeders Cup favorite but her last few races have been mediocre including a 10 length trouncing by Covfefe in the Test Stakes. Selcourt and Lady Ninja seem to be the biggest threats otherwise.

Filly and Mare Sprint Prediction: Winner: Come Dancing (5/2). 2nd Choice: Covfefe (2/1) Long Shot Possibility: Selcourt (10/1)

Turf Sprint

Always a tough race to handicap, this year's version looks no different especially with no European horses entered. I heard an interview with one overseas commentator who said that for a $1 million purse it’s hard to risk a horse at a dangerous track, for a race where the horses run all out. Stormy Liberal returns to try and win this race in back to back years, but his 2019 form doesn’t look nearly as good as 2018. He narrowly lost to Eddie Haskell in his last race but that horse looks to be in better form than Stormy Liberal. Eddie Haskell has had some great races and some stinkers. The 9/2 morning line odds are hard to justify. Totally Boss has had 5 excellent races in a row but could be handicapped by getting the rail considering he is a horse that tries to lay way back and make a late charge. Undoubtedly, he will lose a lot of ground trying to get to the outside at the end but if he is able to do so he could be the horse to beat. Pure Sensation (5/1) has had some great races at Philadelphia Park but has struggled at the A tracks like Belmont and Imprisms has not been able to keep up with the other horses in this race. Stubbins (12/1) could prove to be the upset choice after his come from behind win at the Woodford Stakes and Shekky Shebaz seems to be in top form at the moment as is Final Frontier. This race is a complete tossup and even the other horses not mentioned Leinster, Om, Legends of War and Belvoir Bay can be argued to have a decent chance, although the latter horse will have his work cut out for him starting from the outside gate

Turf Sprint Prediction: Winner: Totally Boss (5/1). 2nd Choice: Eddie Haskell (9/2) Long Shot Possibility: Stubbins (12/1)

Dirt Mile

Omaha Beach is the overwhelming 8/5 morning line favorite for this race and rightly so. After running 2nd and 3rd in 4 consecutive California races to start his career man wondered if he was the quintessential sucker horse but he has since rolled off 4 consecutive wins including wins in the important Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Sprint Championship. The horse was supposed to run in the Kentucky Derby but was withdrawn. He has shown he can handle the distance and shocked Game Winner at Oaklawn Park earlier. On class alone Omaha Beach will be tough to beat. Improbable is the next likely choice at morning line odds of 3/1. After narrowly losing to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby, Improbable finished 5th as favorite in the Kentucky Derby and 6th as the favorite in the Preakness. The distance may have been too long for him though since he easily won his 2 races at a mile. Mr. Money (6/1) had tremendous wins in the Indiana Derby and West Virginia Derby and narrowly lost at Pennsylvania but one must wonder if he’s in the same class as the previous two. Spun to Run lost to Maximum Security at the Haskell and was well beaten by Mr. Money in Pennsylvania but did look good in his last race going away in a cheaper stakes race at Pennsylvania. Coal Front is the only other horse that looks to be a real contender after winning in Dubai and Gulfstream but mixed in there were some lackluster runs. Blue Chipper looks impressive with several wins in double digits, but those races were in Korea which isn’t known as a racing powerhouse.

Dirt Mile Prediction: Winner: Omaha Beach (8/5). 2nd Choice: Improbable (3/1) Long Shot Possibility: none

Filly & Mare Turf

Sistercharlie won this race last year and has looked even better so far in 2019 with 3 dominating wins in New York and Chicago. She is 8/5 in the morning line but will likely go off as the lowest price for every Breeders Cup race this year. Mrs. Sippy just lost out to Sistercharlie at the Flower Bowl and won her other race in the U.S., but her races in Europe prior to coming to America were nothing special. Iridessa at 8/1 is a very highly regarded horse in Europe and much is expected of her on the hard turf course of Santa Anita. She did, however, lose her last race to Billesdon Brook at Newcastle and earlier was trounced by Fleeting in the Irish Oaks. Fleeting is the 6/1 second choice on the morning line but she did race against Sistercharlie at Arlington Park earlier this year where she finished a well beaten 4th. Villa Marina beat Fleeting on soft turf in France at the Prix de l’Opera and she had some other impressive wins so can’t be discarded. Vasilka who is a local favorite after recording 4 straight wins at Santa Anita could prove tough and Castle Lady who won 3 races in France and just missed in the QEII Cup at Keeneland look like the next best horses. The one real upset possibility is the horse on the outside Fanny Logan. Even though she hasn’t run the toughest races of late she did record 3 straight wins and has Frankie Dettori on board, racing for Godolphin Stables. And as we have seen in the past, that combination can never be discounted.

Juvenile Fillies Turf Prediction: Winner: Sistercharlie (8/5). Second Choice: Vasilka (8/1). Long Shot Possibility: Fanny Logan (15/1)

Sprint

Mitole is the 9/5 morning line favorite and it seems much deserved after running off a string of 6 victories by over 2 lengths before losing by almost 7 lengths to Imperial Hint in the Vagabond. Mitole had trouble galore in that race including hitting the gate and given all the issues he faced, the 3rd place victory was impressive. In his last race at the Forego he won by almost 3 lengths over Firenze Fire. Imperial Hint barely beat Firenze Fire in the Vosburgh, which is an important prep race for the Breeders Cup. Shancelot at 4/1 looks like the next main contender after narrowly losing to Omaha Beach at the Santa Anita Sprint Championship and as mentioned that horse looks like a virtual lock earlier in the card. And Catalina Cruiser has posted some of the fastest times in 3 straight California wins although the rail and the lower class of those races still makes him an outsider. Whitmore and Engage seem like the only other real contenders, as Whitmore did finish 2nd to Roy H in this race last year.

Sprint Prediction: Winner: Mitole (9/5). Second Choice: Shancelot (4/1). Long Shot Possibility: Firenze Fire (12/1)

Mile

At one time the Mile was easy to predict when Goldikova won the race every time she entered but after Wise Dan’s consecutive wins the Mile has become very unpredictable. While Expert Eye won this race for Sheikh Abdullah and Frankie Dettori last year, that was the first European win since Goldikova. Nevertheless, eyes always turn first to the European invaders and this year’s 3/1 morning line favorite is Circus Maximus, trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. Circus Maximus has 4 wins in 10 races including 3 this year. He loves the 1 mile distance and has 2 Grade 1 wins and a narrow loss at the distance. His last race in France was particularly impressive as he beat some very highly regarded horses. Of the other European horses, Space Traveller looks next best after winning a Grade 2 race in Ireland impressively and Lord Glitters who has run against top horses in Europe, although he was beaten soundly by most of them including Circus Maximus. The best of the U.S. horses appears to be Got Stormy, who is 7/2 on the morning line. Trainer Mark Casse has a great record in this race and Got Stormy won impressively at a mile in New York before being beaten at Woodbine in a shock by Canadian horse El Tormenta. That horse runs in this race too but likely has little chance. Uni, also 7/2 on the morning line won 5 straight races at a mile including a win at Del Mar but lost to Got Stormy in that New York race as the favorite. He followed that up with a dominating win at Keeneland as a prep for this race. Bowie's Hero seems to have a shot too although the outside fence could hurt. None of the other horses inspire much confidence, although Lucullan, who finished 3rd in that race at Woodbine could contend on a best effort and Without Parole looked like a superstar in his first races in England, but of late he has run atrociously, including a 52 length shellacking at Newbury entering this race after being eased. Frankie Dettori who usually rides this horse opted to race Hey Gaman instead, but unfortunately for Dettori there is little to suggest that horse can contend with these.

Mile Prediction: Winner: Uni (7/2). Second Choice: Got Stormy (7/2). Long Shot Possibility: Lucullan (12/1)

Distaff

It’s hard to look past Midnight Bisou in this race as the 6/5 morning line favorite. Never out of the money in her career, Midnight Bisou has 7 straight wins at races between 1 1/16 miles and this race’s distance of 1 1/8 miles. She did finish only 3rd in this race behind Wow Cat, who finished 2nd, but Midnight Bisou is one year older and clearly a better horse today. Despite finishing 2nd last year, Wow Cat has not been nearly as good this year and was no match for Midnight Bisou in other races this year. Paradise Woods, who is 2nd in the morning line, has had some good races this year, including an impressive win in the Zenyatta stakes last outing at Santa Anita, but she has also run some very poor races with no real excuses. Blue Prize, who was 4th in this race last year started off this year’s campaign slowly but is rounding into form and made a nice run in the Spinster Stakes at Keenland to get up for the victory. Dunbar Road just got beat by Blue Prize in that race and prior to that she was running lights out in New York including impressive wins in the Mother Goose and Alabama Stakes. Street Band appears to be the only other horse with a realistic chance in this race.

Distaff Prediction: Winner: Midnight Bisou (6/5). Second Choice: Blue Prize (6/1). Long Shot Possibility: Wow Cat (15/1)

Turf

This race is usually dominated by the Europeans and it appeared Magical would win fairly easily but had to be scratched because of an injury. As such the race appears on paper to be between 3 horses – Bricks and Mortar, Anthony van Dyck and Old Persian. Bricks and Mortar is the American hope and despite the fact U.S. horses haven’t done so great in the Turf, this horse is something special. Bricks and Mortar has 10 wins and 2 thirds in 12 starts and is 5 for 5 in 2019. He’s beaten some highly regarded European horses and has won the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs, the Manhattan Stakes at Belmont and the Arlington Million, all which are among the top turf races in the U.S. His times and Beyer figures have been impressive as well. Anthony van Dyck, an Aidan O’Brien trained and Ryan Moore ridden horse ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year but suffered serious traffic problems that compromised all chances. He did win the Epsom Derby, which is considered the best 3 year old race in Europe and he raced against Enable and Magical who of course finished first and second in this race last year but was no match for either. He comes off a useful 3rd place finish behind Magical in Ireland. Old Persian, a Godolphin horse, ridden by William Buick was running impressively in races throughout Europe and Dubai and came to North America where he easily won the Northern Dancer Stakes at Woodbine. The only question is whether he rates as highly as the other two on class. Among the other horses, Mount Everest, who has had some good races in Europe along with Arklow, who won the Belmont Turf Classic and both Channel Maker and Channel Cat, who along with Arklow have taken turns beating each other throughout the year, appear like the only mild upset chances.  

Turf Prediction: Winner: Bricks and Mortar (9/5). Second Choice: Old Persian (4/1). Long Shot Possibility: Channel Maker (10/1) 

Classic

For a change, this year’s Classic appears to be a total toss-up. McKinzie, who was trounced in this race last year by Accelerate is the 3/1 morning line favorite.  So far in 2019, McKinzie has two wins and 4 second place finishes, including wins in the Alysheba and Whitney Stakes. No doubt the Bob Baffert connection is partially the reason for his odds, but I don't believe he is the best horse in the race and his dreadful finish at the Breeders' Cup last year has to make one concerned. Code of Honor appears to be the best 3-year-old in the field after finishing 3rd in the Kentucky Derby (placed 2nd) when Maximum Security was disqualified and then went on to easily win the Travers and narrowly lost the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The outside post won't help, but John Velasquez is the best in rating horses and overcoming bad post positions. Vino Rosso narrowly won the Jockey Club Gold Cup but was soundly beaten earlier by McKinzie and Yoshida in the Whitney. Starting from post 11 won’t help Vino Rosso either. Yoshida charged to finish 4th in this race last year but failed to win in 2019 and as mentioned was beaten by McKinzie and Seeking the Soul, who has little chance in this race. Mongolian Groom ran a perfect race at Santa Anita in the Awesome Again Stakes to beat McKinzie at 25/1 odds, but has shown little otherwise and Higher Power has had decent races at times. As for the other horses, Owendale and Math Wizard seem to be a class below the rest and War of Will would be a contender if he had the same form he did going into the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. But after winning the Preakness, War of Will has not looked like the same horse. Elate is the final horse and the only filly in the race. She lost 3 straight times to Midnight Bisou and has been impressive in some instances but it’s hard to see a filly beating the boys in this race when that horse is not the best in her field. If Midnight Bisou was running here she would have to be considered.

Classic Prediction: Winner: Code of Honor (9/5). Second Choice: McKinzie (3/1). Long Shot Possibility: War of Will (20/1)

Betting tips for Friday's Breeders' Cup races are available here.

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