Betting tips for the Breeders' Cup Friday card

The Breeders' Cup this year will be held at Santa Anita Park, which will desperately be hoping for a clean two days of racing with no fatal injuries. Santa Anita has had a troubling year. The winter/spring meet at the track saw 30 horses die leading to the shutdown of racing for almost a month while the California Horse Racing Board tried to figure out what was going on. In the end the CHRB came to an agreement with the Stronach Group, which owns the track, to reopen Santa Anita with new rules on medications and particularly Lasix for young horses. Many horsemen still say that wasn’t the main issue as the real culprit for the breakdowns are the heavy workout schedule and the hard dirt surface at Santa Anita. Many pointed to the decrease in horse deaths at the track when California mandated synthetic surfaces and the consequential increases in deaths after both Santa Anita and Del Mar switched back to dirt. In the fall meet there have been two horse deaths. Partially for this reason, it appears the number of European horses running in dirt races this year will be minimal.

On a handicapping level, Santa Anita tends to have a speed bias, particularly on the dirt track and it was so pronounced in 2016, the last time the Breeders' Cup was held at the track, that many trainers called the races a disgrace, especially those who trained come from behind runners. Santa Anita has worked hard to eliminate the bias for this year's races and many horse writers have noted there have been far fewer pure speed winners leading up to this year’s Breeders' Cup. The turf course is fairer than the dirt course and while it favors speed runners too, it isn't so pronounced. European horses have also done exceptionally well at the Breeders' Cup on the turf at the track.

With that in mind here is an analysis of Friday's Breeders' Cup Races which is completely geared to the 2-year olds.

Juvenile Turf Sprint

Four Wheel Drive is the 3/1 morning line favorite having won his only 2 races including an impressive win at the Futurity Stakes at Belmont. One of the first foals sired by American Pharaoh there is a lot of intrigue about this horse and if he continues to win, American Pharaoh’s sire value could go up considerably.  The big concern about Four Wheel Drive is that he has only run 2 races including one in August and one in early October and this race is generally won by a horse with a bit more experience. Wesley Ward, who trains Four Wheel Drive also trains two other horses, Cambria, who is 12/1 in the morning line and Kimari, who is the 7/2 second choice in the betting.  Cambria is undefeated having won a race in May, July and September but it’s questionable whether he beat much in those races. Cambria also starts from the outside gate which is a disadvantage and his workouts since the last win have been nothing to get excited about. Kimari, on the other hand, has won all three races in the U.S. and was second in a Grade 2 race at Ascot Racetrack in June, leading all the way only to be beaten at the wire. In her last race she was bumped badly, had to go very wide and still beat Chimney Rock at the wire. Without those issues there is no doubt she would have romped to victory in that race. A'Ali seems to be the biggest threat having won races in both England and France and he gets Frankie Dettori as his jockey, who is having a great year in Europe. Among the remaining horses, Alligator Alley, who looked extremely intriguing before being soundly beaten by A'Ali as the even money favorite and Chimney Rock who closed very well to just miss beating Kimari and Cambria seem the only other viable upset possibilities. Starting from the rail Chimney Rock should be able to save a lot of ground. It should be noted that I always get excited about Ryan Moore ridden and Aidan O'Brien trained horses at the Breeders' Cup, but King Neptune has shown very little in 9 races.

Juvenile Turf Sprint Prediction: Winner: Kimari (7/2). 2nd Choice: A'Ali (6/1). Long Shot Possibility: Chimney Rock (10/1)

Juvenile Turf

A race that tends to be won by the favorites could see a different result as there is no overwhelming favorite this year. In fact, a case can be made for almost all of the 14 runners in the field. Arizona is the 5/2 morning line favorite but other than having Aidan O'Brien as trainer and Ryan Moore as the jockey there is very little to get excited about with this horse. He started his career well with wins at the Curragh and Ascot, but has since been beaten easily, although he did finish in the money in all the races including a second-place finish in a Group 1 race. More concerning, Arizona tired badly in the last 2 races at 7 furlongs making one wonder whether he can handle the 1-mile distance. Decorated Invader is an intriguing horse. After handily winning a maiden race at Belmont he went to Woodbine in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes, where he won fairly easily despite being bumped. Vitalogy, who was in that race, was also bumped and closed well as the favorite and in a subsequent Grade 3 race at Keeneland he looked well on his way to victory after circling the field but drifted badly in the stretch. One must wonder whether he needs more distance than 1 mile though. Structor is 2 for 2 with easy wins at Belmont and Graceful Kitten is 3 for 3 at Gulfstream Park, although it doesn’t appear Graceful Kitten beat much. Structor is far more intriguing. Fort Myers, another Aidan O’Brien trained horse, has been doing well and is improving each race although he did lose quite badly to Arizona earlier this year. Unlike Arizona, however, he will likely relish the additional distance. Hit the Road is a local Santa Anita runner who won his last 2 races handily from off the pace and Peace Achieved can’t be discounted after 3 consecutive wins including beating Vitalogy, in the race where Vitalogy drifted. Our Country and Andesite wouldn't shock either.

In the end this could come down to running position and post position. Arizona, Fort Myers and Hit the Road are starting from posts 12, 13 and 14 respectively which could compromise their chances, especially Arizona who will likely go wide trying to vie for the lead.

Juvenile Turf Prediction: Winner: Decorated Invader (4/1). 2nd Choice: Vitalogy (10/1) Long Shot Possibility: Fort Myers (12/1)

Juvenile Fillies

If one trusts the morning lines, then this should be a 4-horse race between Donna Veloce, who is the 3/1 morning line favorite and British Idiom, Bast and Wicked Whisper, who are all 7/2 on the morning line. Comical is next at 8/1 but after her two beatings by Bast it's hard to pick her.

Donna Veloce had one race at Santa Anita where she fought early but then drew off to win by almost 10 lengths with an incredible Beyer speed figure. She draws the rail which should prove beneficial in the 9-horse field. Given the way she ran in that race, the extra 2 furlongs will suit her to a tee. She also has Flavien Pratt as her jockey. British Idiom won her 2 first race handily in New York and then had a commanding 6 length victory in a Grade 1 stakes at Keenland at this race’s distance. Her Beyer figures, however, have been below the other 3. Bast was second in her first race at Del Mar and then trounced the field in the Grade 1 Debutante stakes at Del Mar before just winning her last race over Comical at Santa Anita as the 1/5 favorite. Many believe Bob Baffert may have asked his jockey to dog that race a bit to see how she could handle being pressured. John Velasquez is her jockey who has been among the top jockeys at Breeders Cup races. Wicked Whisper easily won her 2 races in New York including the Grade 1 Frizette and there is no doubt she will try to wire the field. The other horses would be surprises.

Juvenile Fillies Prediction: Winner: Donna Veloce (3/1). Second Choice: Wicked Whisper (7/2). Long Shot Possibility: None

Juvenile Fillies Turf

A tough race as always, one must look to the European invaders first. Daahyeh is 5/1 on the morning line but will probably be lower at post time. Daahyeh has 3 wins and two seconds in 5 races in England, including narrow losses to highly regarded Love and Raffle Prize. She rates well and can either lead or close and gets William Buick as her jockey who has been one of the top riders in England for some time. Daahyeh has been favored in each of her five races. Albigna is the next highest rated horse and is actually the 9/2 morning line favorite having won her last race on a soft track on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe day. Her one loss, however, was a sound defeat by Love and Daahyeh in a Grade 1 race in Ireland. Tango has been beaten by the first 2 runners on several occasions but in her last race at the Curragh she easily won on a heavy track. She is trained by Aiden O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. Shadn was a Grade 1 winner in France most recently but is believed to be a cut below these and Living in the Past has 2 wins in England although again she may be a cut below the top 3. Etoile won her first race in Ireland but was soundly beaten in her last race in England, a grade 1 race at Newcastle. She gets Frankie Dettori as jockey but has to start from the outside fence. As for the North American horses, Sweet Melania looked extremely impressive in her last race at Keenland as did Crystalle and Selfessly. Crystalle loves to close from well off the pace. Fair Maiden also looked very good at Arlington Park and Woodbine although she lost to Abscond in her last race at Woodbine in the Natalma Stakes. She drifted badly in that race, however, and has worked well since. A Godolphin owned horse can never be discounted on the turf.

Juvenile Fillies Turf Prediction: Winner: Daahyeh(5/1). Second Choice: Tango(10/1). Long Shot Possibility: Fair Maiden (12/1)

Juvenile

Maxfield was a major contender for this race, but was withdrawn after suffering a mild leg injury No doubt the history of the track this year made that decision easier. With Maxfield out, Eight Rings and Dennis' Moment are the clear favorites in this race. Eight Rings won his maiden easily at Del Mar and lost his jockey in the Del Mar Futurity, but came back with a vengeance at Santa Anita, romping to victory in the American Pharaoh Stakes. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by John Velasquez he will be hard to beat if he runs his race. Dennis’ Moment lost his rider after clipping heels in his maiden but then won a race at Ellis Park by almost 20 lengths earning an incredible 97 Beyer speed figure. He then cruised to victory at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois Stakes. The margin wasn’t overly impressive, but Ortiz let off at the end to save his horse. He is sired by Tiznow, who of course was a Breeders Cup winner himself. Anneau D'or seems to be the biggest threat having won his only race at Golden Gate on the turf by 8 lengths and Scabbard who finished second to Dennis' Moment in the Iroquois can't be totally discounted.

Juvenile Prediction: Winner: Eight Rings (2/1). Second Choice: Dennis' Moment (8/5). Long Shot Possibility: Scabbard (8/1)

Looking for Saturday's card? Hartley breaks down every Breeders' Cup race here!

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