Home Run Derby Picks -- Reigning Champ Alonso Faces Ohtani, Gallo, Story, Other Sluggers

  • In Charles Jay
  • Mon, Jul 12th, 2021 10:47:36 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


Pete Alonso is the defending champion in the Home Run Derby, but Shohei Ohtani is the favorite, with slugger Joey Gallo and hometown guy Trevor Story involved as well.

Preview of Major League Baseball's annual Home Run Derby

Hey, it's Home Run Derby day, and that is usually the event most people tune in to, although it's a shame that they don't bother too much with the All-Star Game itself.

Let's take a look at a couple of the HR Derby props available at BetOnline.

Here is a Round 1 matchup . . .

TREVOR STORY (+140) over JOEY GALLO (-170)

You would think Joey Gallo might be the kind of guy who lives for things like the Home Run Derby. Gallo's batting practice exploits are widely known, and that's pretty much what this whole thing is about.

Home Run Derby betting tipsWell, not so fast.

Remember that he is in his first Home Run Derby, so it's not as if he "knows the drill.". Gallo, who has a history of swinging for the fences, whiffing or walking (a prototypical 2021 power hitter), has hit 13 homers in his last 19 games, so he is in good form. However, he's got two hits in 23 plate appearances at Coors Field, with one homer.

And we wonder if his personality is truly wired for this kind of competition. “I’m not a big spotlight guy," he told reporters. "I don’t really like that. The home run derby is a huge spotlight thing.” He has actually declined the opportunity to compete in the Derby before because he was not part of the All-Star Game itself. He is fearful of being looked upon as a one-dimensional player. And he had to be talked into accepting this invitation, by a couple of the Texas coaches.

As far as I'm concerned, this is the most intriguing first-round matchup. Coors Field, of course, is Trevor Story's home park, and he started out his career rather auspiciously, with homers in his first four major league games, a distinction he alone holds among AL or NL players.

Like they are with a lot of players, Story's numbers are greatly enhanced by the stadium he plays in. He has, for instance, averaged one homer per 14.48 plate appearances at home, and one per 23.24 PA's on the road. His career slugging average is 176 points higher at Coors; his OPS is 207 points above what it is away from there.

This season, he is hitting .309 at home, and .180 on the road.

None of that stuff alone, makes him a viable underdog. And frankly, this year he's hit just six dingers at Coors in 171 plate appearances. But you also have to consider the familiarity of the surroundings. He obviously knows the park, and has gotten used to the hitting background. He takes batting practice there 80 or so times a year.

And we've seen him when he goes on a tear. Heck, the guy almost became a legend right out of the box, when he hit six home runs in those aforementioned first four big league games. There is indeed something "natural" about him. So he's our dog on Monday night.

And here are the odds at BetOnline to win the whole thing....

Shohei Ohtani  +225
Joey Gallo  +375
Pete Alonso  +550
Matt Olson  +600
Trevor Story  +800
Juan Soto  +900
Salvador Perez  +950
Trey Mancini  +1100

Just for your information, Ohtani, Alonso, Perez and Soto are in one bracket, with Gallo, Olson, Story and Mancini in the other.

I guess we'll get there through process of elimination.

The guy I want to pick to win it all has to be one of those "pure" home run hitters; someone who actually lives for this kind of event and likes to put on a show during batting practice. You know, a guy like that.

Gallo would certainly fill that description. But we've already eliminated him, via Trevor Story. But I'm not all that certain Story will go all the way, despite any "home cooking" he might enjoy.

Mancini will put forth a gallant effort, and we like him in an underdog play over Olson in the first round, but even though it would be a terrific story if he was to win (having beaten colon cancer), I don't think he has enough firepower to get there.

Ohtani could well win it; after all, the guy's got 33 homers at the All-Star break (that's about one for every nine official at bats). But I don't see the value in the number that's been posted on him. And who's to guarantee he's going to get past his first-round matchup against an explosive guy like Juan Soto?

I'm perfectly okay with ALONSO (+550) as a solid pick to win this thing. First of all, he is the defending champion, having won the contest the last time it was conducted (2019). And it is no small thing that he is the only competitor in this field who has been in the Home Run Derby before. So he knows the drill, knows how to pace himself, etc.

He's also highly motivated. His declaration, the subject of a story in the New York Post: "We're going to take it home again.... I had a fun time winning it. I'm going to win it again."

Alonso also enjoys playing at Coors Field. And why not? He's played six big league games there and hit three homers in 22 at bats, batting .455 with a .909 slugging percentage and an OPS of 1.409.

So we like him at +210 to get to the finals and +550 to win it.

You can enjoy all kinds of Home Run Derby and All-Star Game props available at BetOnline, where you can also check out Odds Boosters, which offer greatly enhanced payouts on pre-selected parlays, every day........ Remember that there are a number of ways you can open up an account, and that includes cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which can put you into the action in a matter of minutes!


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