Using Rushing Statistics As An NFL Betting Tool

Each week during the NFL season, I provide NFL picks, props and parlays, along with tips, totals, teasers and trends. Week 7 picks and opinions (3-1) were better while also hitting a 2-team 'Dog parlay with both outright winners including top pick on the Panthers. The player props are on a 12-0 run from weeks 3-6, and now we have more stats and data to identify matchup edges and stronger point of attack play with our proprietary rushing stats leading the way. 

Injuries continue to impact teams and the significance of offensive line and defensive line injuries is more meaningful when you're evaluating point of attack play. But last week's underdog winner on the Carolina Panthers shows the importance of the running game, even when the team has a (clueless) quarterback who is not as capable. The Panthers and RB Rico Dowdle (our player prop winner) tore up the trenches with a week-high 216 rushing yards to crush the Cowboys statistically in a 30-27 win. Those type of underdog picks, which we provided with 57% ATS success at Off Shore Gaming Association from 2017-2023, are something we try to identify when a team has a matchup edge in the running game along the offensive and/or defensive line.

Rushing To The Window

One of our edges in handicapping while picking and betting NFL point spread winners has been the ability to isolate and interpret data using running game stats that have helped us rush to the window when wagering. 

The bookies who built the business. 

Key stats and the ability to project which team will outrush and opponent by at least 30 yards, and/or also run the ball at least 30 times are proven ATS winners of 75% or better. Teams that fail to run the ball at least 23 times in a game are a losing proposition, often an ATS loser 80+% of the time. 

This season, teams that outrush an opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are 38-25 ATS (60%) - well below the historical 74-75% level I've documented for 2+ decades including 75% ATS the past six seasons with more than 1,000 games sample. I anticipate that improving as the season moves ahead. 

Teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game (when their opponent does not), are 38-12 ATS (76%). Straight up winners on both the rushing edge and attempts are higher. 

Teams that run the ball less than 23 times per game in a contest are covering the spread just 18% of the time, 9-40 ATS. 

YTD Rushing Leaders 

Here are the top rushing teams by yards per game in 2025. 

- Falcons (151)
- Commanders (151)
- Bills (151)
- Panthers (142)
- Jets (145)
- Colts (132)
- Broncos (130)
- Lions (128)

Bottom teams in yards per game

- Bengals (56)
- Titans (81)
- 49ers (82)
- Steelers (84)
- Browns (90)
- Dolphins (91)
- Patriots (91)
- Eagles (95)

Teams that run the ball an average of at least 30 times per game include:

- Falcons (31.8)
- Bills (31.0)
- Packers (30.8)
- Giants (30.2)
next - Lions (29.2)

Teams that run the ball for less than 23 times per game include: 

- Bengals (18.0
- Dolphins (19.7)
- Titans (21.2)
next - Browns (23.5) and Ravens (23.7) 

Turnovers are often the culprit when teams fail to cover the spread but have edges in rushing. Teams with a +3 or greater turnover margin in a game are 10-0 SU/ATS this season, and historically a 92% ATS winner. Teams with a +2 turnover edge in a game are 24-6 SU and 22-8 ATS this season, still below the historical near 80% ATS rate. So turnovers, which are often random and most difficult to account for, are really a significant stat in the outcome of NFL games. 

These rushing guidelines and handicapping tools are just one way to isolate matchup edges, but a proven and profitable profile. However, interpreting data and projecting stats and how game flow and matchup edges may play out is a learned craft that comes with experience. As a fundamental handicapper, these principles apply. But clearly the ability to learn, grow and adjust to changes including today's analytics, EPA, DVOA and other metrics assists you in becoming a well-rounded handicapper and sharpens your tool box when betting. 

Review weekly matchups, key injuries and use the tools to interpret data and become more proficient in finding edges. That preparation and practice in identifying more matchup edges in rushing and point of attack play with lead you to more profit and payouts.  

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.