Free pick for Titans at Bills

Buffalo is playing at home against the Titans in the early MNF game, slated to start at 7:15 PM ET. The Bills Mafia will be going nuts and why not, the Bills are 10-5-2 ATS as a favorite at home over the last two seasons. Prior to the start of the NFL season, sportsbooks put up odds for the first few weeks' games. The Bills were 7.5 point favorites on September 7th, but after demolishing the Rams on TNF to kick off the NFL season, this number zoomed to 10 and has stayed there. The Bills have won two thirds of their games when favored since 2021, but one of those losses was on the road to the Titans. 

Recent Matchups

These two teams played last October and there were fireworks on the field. Tennessee won the game 34-31. That night, the Bills flew home knowing they were the better team, even though didn't get the W. The Bills also lost in 2020 after starting the season 4-0. Tonight's Monday Night Football broadcast should be a very physical game. Of all the possible props for this game, there should be an over/under number for the upcoming injuries!

The latest odds published at industry leader BetOnline show the Bills as a double digit favorite.

Tennessee Titans   +10 (-115)
Buffalo Bills           -10 (+105)

Total Points Over 47.5 (-110)
Total Points Under 47.5

MNF Free Pick

In the prop betting to win the Super Bowl, the Bills are +200 and the Titans are +2700. So, it's pretty obvious which is the better team in tonight's game. But, this odds-on favorite to win the Lombardi trophy is now playing at a different level. They are a very motivated team who, after two close calls with getting into the Big Dance, are ready to ascend the throne as AFC champs at the next Super Bowl.

Josh Allen is also the favorite to win the MVP award, coming off of two great seasons under center. His line for game 1? 26 for 31 for 297 yards, with 3TDs and two interceptions. His total yards passing number at the leading online sportsbooks is over 262.5, with some of the mainstream U.S. books posting the total at 260.5. Tennessee held the Giants' Daniel Jones to 188 yards and 2 score in the opener, but last year this squad finished 25th in opponents passing yards per game. They also yielded 238 yards on the ground and lost to the G-Men as home favorites. 

Buffalo is favored by -10. I am going to buy the game down to closer to the opening number and bet on Tennessee at -8.5, keeping it under two scores.

Howard Schwartz has been providing betting insights for over a decade on Facebook. Check out his social media group and website pfww.vegas for more betting tips and NFL wagering advice.