Monday Night Football Picks, Odds and Props Week 9 Buccaneers-Chiefs

Preview and prediction for Buccaneers-Chiefs on MNF

Fairway's Football Forecast Week 9 underdog picks went 1-1 ATS with an outright winner on the ugliest 'Dog, Carolina Panthers in their 23-22 win over New Orleans. That contributed to the Saints firing head coach Dennis Allen Monday. Now the Monday Night Football feature has Saints rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) shooting for a big upset against the undefeated, 2-time defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs (7-0). 

Be sure to monitor the NFL weather for this MNF feature game. It's very likely to be raining throughout the Bucs-Chiefs game with wind gusts reaching 20 mph. Live betting may be a more favorable betting options as you watch and wager and monitor the weather during the Bucs-Chiefs contest. That similar weather impacted the Lions-Packers game Sunday in Green Bay in the Lions 24-14 win with Detroit's potent offense only gaining 261 yards (4.7 yppl) with the Packers forced to pass more playing from behind and making mistakes. 

The Kansas City Chiefs (-9 to -9.5) are the biggest spread favorite of Week 9, where favorites are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS so far. After reviewing more AFC vs NFC matchups and stats, I'm passing on the Bucs as an official NFL underdog pick, but still have an Opinion on the Bucs as I provided in early Week 9 Opinions and Considerations for underdog picks. 

The Panthers win over the Saints was a rare victory for the leading online sportsbooks Sunday, as many top online sportsbooks had more liability on favorites who won - Commanders, Falcons, Ravens and Bengals. Even the Bills win, non-cover over the Dolphins was not a good result for many online sportsbooks as moneyline and teasers bets on the Bills cashed in as well.

But the Saints loss impacted more than just spread, moneyline, teaser and total bettors. The Panthers late TD in the final 2.5 minutes pushed the game total Over 43.5 in Carolina's 23-22 win. It also busted Saints teaser and moneyline bets, and busted more people out of survivor pools. BetOnline notes that more than 98% of the Survivor contestants have been eliminated. 

Due to the Saints losing, 20% of the remaining contestants in our $591,600 Survivor Contest bit-the-dust yesterday.

Overall, about 98.7% have been eliminated.

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) November 4, 2024

I have posted many weekly player prop winners in Forbes starting in Week 4 through 9, and you can check out more in my Week 9 Monday Night Football coverage in Forbes. That will limit my words, ramblings and content here. While I passed on Bucs-Chiefs player props in that update, additional colleagues and contacts chip-in additional advanced stats and prop picks.

You may recall I chipped-in another NFL player prop winner at Off Shore Gaming Assocation in the Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Jets.

Bet on the NFL at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Buccaneers - Chiefs Matchup, Stats, Props

A favorable matchup appears likely for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce. The Buccaneers’ defense is surrendering a league-high 0.71 EPA/target to opposing tight ends and they will likely struggle against TE Travis Kelce, whose 65% success rate ranks 2nd.

However, I would note that Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is a defensive specialist, and have to believe he'll be more aggressive (Bucs 2nd blitz rate) while jamming Kelce more at the line of scrimmate. With the rain and wind, shorter passes may be in order, so I would target Kelce receptions (5.5) ahead of receiving yards (61.5). 

Note too that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said new WR DeAndre Hopkins will be utilized more in his second game with Kansas City. So, a player prop pick and bet is DeAndre Hopkins Over 5.5 targets (not receptions) at BetOnline, noting the weather and wind could impact more. 

The Buccaneers defense ranks No. 29 in passing yards allowed, and Tampa Bay has given up 1264 receiving yards to wideouts. 

The Chiefs continue to make moves and trades as they push towards the playoffs and 9th straight AFC West title while shooting to become the first ever NFL team to 3-peat as Super Bowl Champions. 

I wouldn't bet on the Chiefs repeat, but it's still refreshing to see more dominance and better play with so many teams scuffling and harder to watch and wager action with more poor quarterback play. Note too that with most NFL teams playing nine (9) games so far this season, NINE teams have just 2 WINS! 

Favorites are winning ATS at a 54-55% rate this season, with betting lines and data subject to varience with some teams flip-flopping favorite to underdog and depending how you grade. But we're still having a winning season picking only underdogs, and will shoot for more birdies and green and rush to the window on the gridiron hoping we win more in November and can cash-in big again in December like last year's 14-1 ATS run on underdog picks. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.