A second straight week Monday Night Football doubleheader completes Week 4 on Sept. 30. The AFC matchup features the winless Tennessee Titans (0-3) are on the road against the Miami Dolphins (1-2) with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Then the headliner with more competent quarterbacks draws more watch and wager action on ABC when the undefeated Seattle Seahawks (3-0) visit the Lions Den to tackle the Detroit Lions (2-1) in a NFC showdown. I've chipped in some picks, props and information you can bet on below with more MNF betting update in my NFL coverage in Forbes.
MNF Odds And Picks
Pro football odds from leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Betting favorites (-) listed. For bettors interested in reduced juice sportsbook options, checkout BetAnySports and Heritage Sports, which also offers cash back bonuses getting the 'most squeeze for your juice." Odds and spreads below from BetOnline.
- Tennessee at Miami (-2.5), game total 37 points
- Seattle at Detroit (-4), 47
The best number is gone in Detroit (-3.5), but I still Pick the Lions to win and cover. In the early game, two far less competent and capable quarterbacks translates to less scoring and Under the total.
The Lions and Titans have a bye week following this contest and no game in Week 5.
FairwayJay is 10-3 ATS on his NFL Underdog picks this season after his fourth straight winning week going 1-0 in Week 4 on a light card. While Fairway said he fumbled knowing NFL underdogs went 9-4-1 ATS so far in Week 4, he's proven his swing and stroke produce birdies and green on the gridiron longterm with a 57.6% ATS success rate the past 7+ years posting NFL underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association. The Thursday night football ATS winner in Week 4 was FairwayJay's 200th posting picks at OSGA with 116 outright winners (200-147).
Seattle at Detroit
The Seahawks have beaten the Lions 6-straight times since Detroit last won in Oct., 2012. That includes last year's 37-31 OT win when Seattle stunned favored Detroit on this field in Week 2 in a back and forth contest. Both QB's Geno Smith and Jared Goff passed for more than 320 yards, and I anticipate the Lions to have the stronger rushing stats and more balanced offense. Detroit has a terrific RB tandum of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, and Detroit has run the ball more than 33 times per game this season for 163 yards per game (average) to Seattle's 25 and 93 yards. The Lions run defense is stout again allowing 76 rushing yards per game (No. 3 NFL) to Seattle's 116. Factoring the opponents and Lions center Ragnow (pectoral) out, we still see the Lions pound the ground and balanced attack able to roar to victory in the Lions Den Monday night knowing too that the Lions have outgained their three 2024 opponents by +107 yards per game while outrushing them 163/4.8 to 77/3.6.
I'm not betting on QB props, but do like the Lions RB's to do some damage as you consider rushing props over and also Gibbs receiving prop (Over 21.5). But I also like a little-known receiver to go over his receiving prop for the Lions. Tim Patrick (O/U 13.5 receiving yards as available) of the Lions with Seattle's stronger secondary focusing coverage on St. Brown and Williams. Patrick has run 34 routes in the last two weeks, and is an undervalued addition to the receiving core with TE Sam LaPorta (ankle) also a bit banged up. Longshot 1st TD scorer Tim Patrick (+3200) or anytime scorer (+700) is another option to cash in at the sportsbook for a top payout.
Geno Smith has been pressured at the 7th highest rate this season with interior offensive line weakness. He now faces his toughest test against Aiden Hutchinson and the Lions stronger defense after Seattle played three weaker teams lacking some starting personnel including far less competent and capable quarterbacks of Denver, New England and Miami. The Lions offense has only scored 20, 16 and 20 points in regulation through 3 games this season, but they'll move the ball better and come alive in Prime Time and stick it to Seattle.
You can bet on it.
NFL teams who win when the betting line is 6-points or less are 39-7-2 ATS this season and 88% ATS the past 6 years. (Team that wins covers 88% ATS in tighter lined games 6 or less points). Dog wins outright or favorite wins and spread not in play as often.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.