Ever Important Game 5

The Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors square off in Game 5 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals on Thursday. The series is currently deadlocked at 2-games apiece.

A consensus of NBA odds at the major offshore sportsbooks calculates Milwaukee to be a 7.0-point favorite. Bookmaker is showing a current posted total of 217.0 on this pivotal game.

Uncharted Waters for Bucks

Milwaukee jumped out to a 2-0 series lead at home. However, they dropped the next 2 at Toronto, and have lost consecutive games for only a second time all season. The Bucks haven’t suffered 3 straight defeats all season long.

It’s also worth mentioning, no team has lost an NBA playoff series after winning the first 2 games since the 2012 Western Conference Finals when Oklahoma City rallied to beat San Antonio.

Strong Recuperative Powers

Talk about a resilient group, Milwaukee is 22-2 straight up and 19-5 ATS this season following a loss. Moreover, the Bucks are 10-1 ATS this season after coming off an away favorite straight up loss in its previous contest, and they outscored their opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game. Additionally, Milwaukee is 3-0 SU&ATS during this 2018-2019 NBA campaign as a home favorite of 9.5 or less after losing their last game.

Since losing Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against Boston, Eastern Conference top seed Milwaukee has gone 4-0 SU&ATS at home. They won those 4 home contests by a decisive 19.0 points per game.

Raptors Recent Low Scoring Road Stretch

Toronto has witnessed 6 of their 7 away playoff games going under the total during this 2019 postseason. Those contests had an average total of 213.6 and there was a combined 205.7 points scored per game.

Postseason Defensive Dynamos

During these 2019 NBA Playoffs, Toronto has gone 10-6 straight up and is allowing just 99.9 points per game. The Raptors have held their opponents to 96 points or fewer on 9 of those 16 occasions. Toronto’s 3 playoff opponents have combined to shoot an uninspiring 41.5% and they’ve made just 31.0% of their 3-point attempts.

The Bucks are a very profitable 10-3 SU&ATS during these 2019 playoffs. Milwaukee has limited their opponents to a mere 40.4% shooting and that includes 32.8% from 3-point territory.

Nonetheless, it must be noted, both teams have scored 100 points or more during each of the first 4 games of this NBA Eastern Conference Final, and the previous 3 have all went over the total.

NBA Totals Betting Angle

Toronto has a +5.9 point per game differential this season which leads us to an enticing NBA totals betting algorithm. Any road team (Raptors) that’s outscoring opponents by an average of 3.0 or more points per game for the season and is coming off 4 consecutive games during which both teams scored 100 points or greater, resulted in those contests going 52-26 (66.7%) under the total since 1996.

NBA Playoffs Game 5 Betting Angle

Milwaukee is a collective 70-25 (.737) throughout regular season and postseason action. Any home favorite (Bucks) that’s playing in Game 5 of a Conference or NBA Finals series which is tied 2-2, resulted in those home favorites going 28-10 ATS (73.7%) since 2005. If those teams were NBA betting favorites of 6.0 or more and possessed a win percentage of .700 or better, they improved to 5-0 ATS while winning by a substantial 18.6 points per game.

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com