NBA FINALS BETTING

Series Odds from BetOnline

Oklahoma City Thunder -700
Indiana Pacers             +505 

In the NBA, matchups generally go a long way toward determining which team is going to impose its will on the other, and ultimately come out on top. 

It comes down to being able to put a screeching halt to what the other team, likes to do on offense, and then dictate what is going to happen when they have the ball in their hands.

We could see some classic confrontations this week and next. 

The NBA Finals matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers may not be the most attractive when it comes to drawing ratings for ABC, but there is little doubt that these are the two teams that are playing the best basketball at this time of year. 

The Thunder has been a locomotive all season long. Rick Carlisle's Pacers got off to a so-so start, but logged a 34-14 record after New Year's Day to close out the regular season, then went on to go 12-4 over three playoff series to find themselves in the final round. 

And if people hadn't been introduced to their superstar, Tyrese Haliburton, they certainly did in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals against the New York Knicks, as he put up 32 points, twelve rebounds, four steals and 15 assists WITHOUT A TURNOVER. 

Pascal Siakam, who had 31 points in the clinching Game 6 against the Knicks, may be the better second banana between these two teams, but this series won't be about that. 

It won't necessarily even be about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (aka SGA), the terrific OKC guard who won the Most Valuable Player award, even though some may not know how to pronounce his name. 

This is going to be about who can slow down the other guys on the defensive end. 

Oklahoma City, coached by Mark Daigneault is a team that has been meticulously put together, almost literally from scratch, by its general manager, Sam Presti, who at one time presided over a franchise with three players (Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden) who eventually won an MVP award in the NBA, but had only one appearance in the NBA Finals to show for it.

Herschel Walker, meet Paul George

Presti needed to rebuild his team in a different way, with component parts and not a bunch of guys who treated themselves like the one and only option. 

It wasn't an easy process; many would say the Thunder had to go in the tank to affect the rebuild. Kinder folks may suggest it was a matter of taking two steps back to move five steps forward.

Whichever way you want to put it, Presti stockpiled assets, mostly in the form of draft choices. And some good fortune always helps. The Dallas Cowboys were able to propel themselves toward a Super Bowl, in part, by trading away Herschel Walker. 

In OKC's case, it was Paul George.

George was Sam Presti's Herschel Walker. 

In the summer of 2019, George was sent off to the Los Angeles Clippers during a period when he was a legitimate NBA All-Star, having just averaged 28 points a game. 

Presti sold high, and received a nice return that has turned out to be even better than expected. The Clippers sent SGA and Danilo Gallinari to Oklahoma City, along with FIVE first round picks and two first-round pick swaps (where the recipient gets the better of the two picks). 

Getting Gilgeous-Alexander alone made the deal worthwhile, and the Thunder isn't even finished utilizing the assets. Then Presti traded Westbrook, more or less a "me-first" player, and got two first-rounders, two first-round pick swaps AND Chris Paul from Houston. 

This constituted most of the substance of the rebuilding process. 

Over the next three drafts, the Thunder will have seven first-rounders, and endless second rounders over the next six or seven seasons. Considering they are among the youngest teams in the NBA, they are securing a very bright future.

This is the schedule (with TV outlets) for the NBA Finals: 

Game 1, June 5: Pacers at Thunder | ABC, Fubo | 8:30 p.m.
Game 2, June 8: Pacers at Thunder | ABC, Fubo | 8 p.m.
Game 3, June 11: Thunder at Pacers | ABC, Fubo | 8:30 p.m.
Game 4, June 13: Thunder at Pacers | ABC, Fubo | 8:30 p.m.

Game 5, June 16: Pacers at Thunder | ABC, Fubo | 8:30 p.m.*
Game 6, June 19: Thunder at Pacers | ABC, Fubo | 8:30 p.m.*
Game 7, June 22: Pacers at Thunder | ABC, Fubo | 8 p.m.*
* if necessary

The Pacers bring a formidable game to the table

Indiana led the league in True Shooting Percentage this season, and they are absolutely dedicated to moving the ball around, as they were third in the NBA in assists per game during the regular season. 

They are pretty solid in most phases of the game, and Haliburton, who has averaged 18.8 points and 9.8 assists in the postseason, is the trigger man. The objective is to get out in the transition game, preferably by forcing a turnover. In the East finals against the Knicks, they held a massive 140-61 edge in points off turnovers.

They bring together a nice ensemble cast and can use a lot of people, as eleven players averaged at least 15 minutes a contest. 

So the question may be, how quickly can they get the ball up the floor, and will there be another team waiting for them when they do?

For the Thunder, the big story is defense

OKC not only has the top scorer in the NBA, at 32.7 points per game, they are also a defensive machine. They rank first in so many categories that it's sick:

-- Field Goal percentage allowed (43.6%)
-- Three-point percentage allowed (34.2%)
-- Two-point field goals allowed (24.5 per game)
-- Two-point percentage allowed (51.3%)
-- Turnovers forced (17.0 per game)

Let's add that OKC has scored more points off turnovers than anybody, and has the best turnover margin as well, Only seven times has the Thunder had more turnovers than its opponent.

And of course, they are #1 in the league in Defensive Rating.

The stoppers are absolutely everywhere. The guys who are notorious for their ability to hound the opponent's top options are Lu Dort and Alex Caruso, both of whom went undrafted and both of whom have made appearances on the NBA's All-Defensive first team. 

Then there's Jalen Williams, who made this year's All-NBA defensive second team and adds a scoring component that makes him an effective complement to SGA, netting 21.6 ppg. 

Of course, he's not to be confused with JAYLIN Williams, a power forward who averages 16 rebounds per 100 possessions and has an outstanding Defensive Rating of 104, who himself should not be confused with the Jaylin Williams who plays for Denver. 

Another thing you can count on with the Thunder is that they are going to protect the rim, particularly when Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren are in the lineup at the same time. This is how you get to be #1 in the league in defending two-point shooting. So this is going to force Indiana outside. 

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Here's the other thing we have to note about the Thunder.....

These guys absolutely snuff out fast breaks. No team has surrendered fewer fast break points than Oklahoma City, By the way, Indiana is second in that category, so suffice to say the objective here on the part of both teams is to force this into a half-court game.

This season, OKC's offense was fourth in the NBA in halfcourt efficiency (Cleveland was the leader), while Indiana was seventh. 

How can the Pacers win?

Most people would probably be constructing arguments for Indiana winning a game or two. Certainly that kind of thing can be explained.

But to win the whole series?

Well, there is going to have to be something well out of the ordinary. For one thing, they have to hold down the turnovers. And they were able to do that very well this season, ranking fourth in the league in Turnover Percentage on the offensive end. 

They have to do this while executing great ball movement. That's the way they are going to prevent the Thunder from zeroing in on Tyrese Hailburton, who is going to have the ball in his hand on most possessions. 

And they can shoot three-pointers from the corner. That's potentially a big factor. In these playoffs, the Pacers have made 46.5% of their corner threes. And EVERYBODY had a high percentage. This season, OKC allowed more corner threes than anyone. That is a formula for Indiana to win, if their shooters get hot. 

What about the SGA factor?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (listed at -500 to be the Finals MVP at BetOnline), who lasted until the eleventh pick in the draft when he came out of Kentucky, is typical of the kind of high-character people Sam Presti was looking to bring to Oklahoma City. 

John Hollinger, who at one time was Vice-President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies, wrote in The Athletic about the observations of his team (and others) of SGA during the draft process, mentioning that he "had as many superlative exclamation points in his background reports as any draft prospect I can remember."

Does anyone stop him? It didn't happen for the Pacers in the two regular season meetings. SGA scored 78 points in 69 minutes, shot 55.6% from the field, which included 7 of 11 from three-point range, with 14 rebounds. He shoots 90% from the free throw line.  Any plan to beat OKC has to start with a way to take him off his game.  

What's going to happen? 

We know that the Pacers want to push the ball, and push it hard. And with Haliburton at the controls, they're very good at it. The knowledge that OKC is the league's absolute best at stopping fast breaks shouldn't give Indiana fans much comfort. 

That brings things into the halfcourt game, and we have to believe that the Thunder has the ability to control things there as well. The Pacers don't necessarily hit the glass a whole lot, ranking 28th in the NBA in total rebounds and 29th in offensive boards. We're not sure how long Mark Daigneault will stick with the "twin towers" look of Hartenstein and Holmgren, but while it's there, it's a significant edge over Myles Turner. 

Let's face it - when a team is #1 in defending the two-pointers AND three-pointers, that's a tough crew to bet against, especially when they can throw a LOT of players at the opponent AND have the most explosive offensive force on either squad. 

We have to admit that Indiana has the tools to get hot from the corner and exploit that lone defensive weakness on the OKC side. So they might be able to steal a game or two. 

But even though the Pacers may have the better "second banana" (Siakam), it the Thunder that has more ripe bananas in its bunch.

OKLAHOMA CITY IN SIX GAMES

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