NBA Playoffs 2019 – Game 7 Betting Toronto vs Philadelphia And Denver vs Portland



FairwayJay provides some NBA Game 7 insights and situations you can bet on.

The NBA conference semifinals feature a pair of Game 7’s Sunday, and the hope teams are both taking 57% of the spread bets at a consensus from seven leading online sportsbooks documented by Sports Insights. That includes industry leaders BookMaker and reduced-juice sportsbook 5Dimes. The winners advance to the conference finals against the two best teams, Golden State and Milwaukee.

Portland Trailblazers at Denver Nuggets (-5.5) Total 212 – Western Conference Semifinals

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors (-6.5) Total 210 – Eastern Conference Semifinals

Since 2003, all Game 7 home favorites are 37-12 SU and 29-20 ATS with an average line of just under 6 points per game. Short home favorites of less than 4 points have struggled going just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS. Totals are 21-28 over/under with an average total of 190.5. However, significant scoring increases in recent seasons has seen totals set much higher. 

Portland at Denver

Denver won an opening round series Game 7 against San Antonio, and the Nuggets have been riding center Nokola Jokic through the playoffs. Jokic has four triple-doubles and has been the most impactful player in the Western Conference playoffs other than the Warriors Kevin Durant. In this series against the Trailblazers, Jokic is averaging  26.8 points, 14 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game and is shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc. Portland’s backcourt combo of Lillard and McCollum have combined to score 51.9 points per game this series, but Lillard is hitting less than 30% of his 3-point shots and McCollum is shooting just 42.6% FG overall. But both players came up big in Game 6, and McCollum is averaging better than 30 points per game in the Trailblazers three wins in this series. Bettors are expecting another strong performance from Jokic and more scoring in Game 7 with Denver and the OVER taking more bets.  

Home teams have won 105 of 133 Game 7s in NBA history (105-28), a 78.9 winning percentage. The Nuggets went a league-best 34-7 SU at home this season, and Denver is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the playoffs. That includes 2-1 SU/ATS against Portland with a pair of high-scoring wins by 8 and 26 points. The Nuggets are also 4-2 ATS in this series and on a 9-3-1 ATS run against Portland overall. The last four games of this playoff series have gone OVER the total, yet the Game 7 total is one point below the posted total in both Game 5 and 6. That has triggered 76% of the consensus bets OVER the total from the seven leading online sportsbooks. Are the oddsmakers smarter than the betting public? Yes, but playing under the total is still a risk as neither the Nuggets or Trailblazers were top-10 in defensive efficiency this season. Still, Game 7’s historically have less scoring than expected, noting too that Game 7’s featuring a home favorite have gone UNDER the total 57% of the time, and since 2008, playoff series in which the four previous games have gone OVER the total and the previous game total was higher than the current game, the UNDER is 9-2.       

Philadelphia at Toronto

Kawhi Leonard has been the most dominant and complete player in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Raptors have been 23.2 points per 100 possessions better with Leonard on the floor (plus-7.0) than they've been with him off the floor (minus-16.2). The Sixers do not have a player in the top-20 in playoff scoring, but Joel Embiid is Philadelphia’s performance player. The 7-foot center is scoring 26.3 PPG against the Raptors, and Embiid is grabbing more than 10 rebounds per game in the playoffs. The 76ers have been 67.0 points per 100 possessions better with Joel Embiid on the floor (plus-20.9) than they've been with him off the floor (minus-46.1)

A trend to watch for live in-play wagering is which team is leading at the end of the first quarter. The team leading after the first quarter has won all six games of this series, and both teams are undefeated if the post season after leading by double-digits in a contest (76ers 6-0, Raptors 7-0).   

Game 7 home favorites have been quite dominant in the NBA Playoffs since 2003 and division realignment, as those favorites of -4 points or more are 34-4 SU. From a money-making perspective against the spread, those favorites are a very profitable 27-11 ATS covering by more than 5 points per game. That puts the Raptors in a favorable situation, and Toronto has been their best at home in the playoffs this season with a scoring margin of 15 points per game. The 76ers have been outscored by 5 points per game on the road in the playoffs, and the 76ers Game 6 win by double digits sets them up in a negative 9-40 ATS situation for Class A or B road teams (.600 or greater) of 6 or more points.

 


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