Free Pick for the NCAA National Championship game

When we see the National Championship game that is about to take place between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Virginia Cavaliers on Monday night (9:20 PM ET), we'll be witnessing a matchup between perhaps the two best defensive teams in the nation. But does translate to an "under" on the total? That's a question we'll examine in anticipation of this showdown, which takes place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, televised on CBS.

And you know, while BetAnySports customers are watching it, they can place wagers in real-time as they access what is available through the facilities of Live Betting Ultra.

There will be two very intense and distinct defensive philosophies on display in Monday night's game. Virginia's Pack Line, a second-generation thing (inherited by Tony Bennett from his father Dick) looks a little like a zone, with defenders engaged in closing out passing lanes to the inside, while at the same time positioning themselves to contest three-pointers by being stationed at an imaginary line about two feet within the three-point circle. It's effective, for sure; under Bennett's stewardship, the Cavs are fifth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and give up the fewest points per game in the country (55.4).

Texas Tech utilizes man-to-man defense which also makes things very hostile for offensive players who want to penetrate; they are very heavy on help defense, through the "Ball-You-Man" philosophy and will contest most shots and passes. They are ferocious, to say the least. Head coach Chris Beard picked up a lot from Bob Knight, under whom he served as an assistant for seven years with the Red Raiders. This team has the capability to cut even good offenses off at the knees; they are ranked #1 in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and have held Buffalo, Michigan and Michigan State to their season-low point total in this Big Dance, not to mention handcuffing the #1 offense in the country - the Gonzaga Bulldogs - holding them 19 points below their average.

In the NCAA Tournament betting odds that have been posted on this game by the people at BetAnySports, Virginia is the slight favorite, and you will note the extremely low total:

Virginia Cavaliers            -1.5
Texas Tech Red Raiders +1.5

Over 118 points -110
Under 118 points -110

Well, you know that these teams are perfectly capable of putting up scores that are in the 50s. They are capable of better than that, certainly; Virginia is 3rd in offensive efficiency, while Texas Tech is 28th. Yes, they can play at the offensive end of the floor.

But they are defense first. And through the design of these two defenses, you can get a pretty good idea about how this game is going to be played.

The object of the game for each of them is to keep opponents from penetrating on the dribble. In other words, they want to make the lane off-limits. And in case anybody invades it, there are a pair of high-level shot-swatters in Mamadi Diakite (Virginia) and Tariq Owens (Texas Tech).

This is going to alter somewhat the play of perhaps the two best offensive players on the floor; two guys who are going to be selected in the first round of the NBA Draft - DeAndre Hunter of Virginia and Jarrett Culver of Texas Tech. Hunter is a talented inside player, who he'll be a challenge, but he'll BE challenged at the same time. Culver is not much of a three-point shooter, so he needs to attack the hoop and get shots in mid-range, and that is going to be affected.

I can see both of these teams driven toward more three-point shooting here. And nobody has exactly gone three-point-crazy in the two games in this football stadium. Furthermore, we can expect a lot of patience in working around for those triples. Virginia takes more time than just about anybody, and you can imagine how much more time they might take if they have Red Raiders all over them every time they make a pass.

Turnovers are something I don't see as a big factor. I don't envision a lot of daring passes into the teeth of each other's defense. Rather, I think they'll be careful, with a lot of low-risk passes. Fast break opportunities will be minimized, Neither team will get away from what they do best, which involves deliberate play and lengthy possessions. Chris Beard is well-known for his halftime adjustments by now, and I believe these will translate into better second-half defense.

I'm not saying there is all the value in the world in this total, and I'd be very careful as regards that first half total of 54. But between the two, going UNDER is the more judicious place to be.

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