NCAA Tournament Betting -- Auburn Wants Third Time to Be the Charm

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Mar 31st, 2019 8:55:02 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


It's an all-SEC matchup in the Elite Eight, as the Kentucky Wildcats and the Auburn Tigers do battle at the Sprint Center in Kansas City.


The Kentucky Wildcats scored two victories over the Auburn Tigers in SEC action this season. And now they will have to win for a third time against a very hot squad if they want to advance to the Final Four. This game, which will crown a champion in the Midwest region,will get underway at 2:20 PM ET at the Sprint Center in Kansas City.

Remember that at BetAnySports, you will have the opportunity to get better odds with reduced juice before the game starts, then place wagers while the contest is in progress with software from Live Betting Ultra.

Kentucky March Madness pickAs we analyze this game, there is one thing about UK we don't have to wonder about: PJ Washington will play. That's because he played a couple of days ago against Houston, returning from a sprained foot to score 16 points in 26 minutes of playing time. Yeah, there will be some soreness, but there's no question he'll be in there.

The injury situation on the Auburn side is more serious. Center Chuma Okeke, the team's leading rebounder, tore his ACL against North Carolina and is out. Okeke is particularly valuable because he is an inside presence on a team that does not have a lot of it. The Tigers are a team that attacks from the outside, taking half their shots from downtown. Now they may wind up doing that a little more.

There is also an effect on Auburn on the defensive end, as Kentucky is a team that you not only have to defend, but defend twice. The 'Cats are fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, while Auburn is a dismal 334th in the defensive rebounding rate and could be less effective without Okeke. Kentucky will be the team getting the easy baskets.

In the NCAA Tournament betting odds posted on this game at BetAnySports, Kentucky is laying points:

Kentucky Wildcats -5
Auburn Tigers +5

Over 141 points -110
Under 141 points -110

Auburn has been the best in the nation at turning other teams over, so it is obvious that Kentucky has to beat the pressure. These two teams have played twice, with Kentucky winning both times. So have turnovers betrayed the Wildcats at all? In the two games their turnover rate was 19% and 17.5%, and if you look at it that is well below what Auburn has been able to force. Also, in these two meetings, Kentucky has hit 61% of its two-point shots, while Auburn has made 37% of their triples.

Auburn Tigers free pickIn the last two games the Tigers have been bombardiers, making 45% of their three-pointers, and the Wildcats have only been about average in stopping treys. If Auburn can't get any effective balance on the inside, John Calipari can have his team cheat a little toward the arc, and they might be able to get away with it. Interestingly, Kentucky has slowed up the other team's big gun in each of the last two games - Corey Davis hit just one of seven triples for Houston, while Fletcher Magee of Wofford unbelievably took a donut (0-for-12). Bryce Brown, who had 28 points in the first meeting, may draw some extra focus, but Auburn will have several three-point shooters out there.

Can a team do a three-game sweep? Well, when a team has swept two regular season games over an opponent and needs to finish it with a third victory in the post-season, they're better than a 70% proposition (straight-up) over the last ten years. There's a real inside advantage with Kentucky, and it is also very rare for any team ticketed for the Final Four to be outside the top 200 defending both three-pointers and two-pointers. And Tyler Herro may be a useful weapon for the Wildcats late, as he sinks his free throws (93.5%). What does Kentucky have that North Carolina didn't in the previous round? Well, experience in beating Auburn, and a damn good scouting report form their encounters during the SEC schedule. Yes, the spread looks roomy, but it may be worth laying.

BetAnySports keeps you going strong through March Madness, with reduced juice for better odds and Live Betting Ultra for the best in real-time wagering action. Get the party started by depositing with your Visa card, person-to-person transfers or the virtual currency of Bitcoin, which is fast and easy with their automated system, and NEVER incurs a transaction fee!


Sign-up for the OSGA Newsletter!

Every week get news and updates, exclusive offers and betting tips delivered right to you email inbox.