Predictions and Free Picks for NFL Week 12

There were probably a lot of people at the NFL league offices, as well as ESPN, who were hoping that the matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers would be something with playoff implications.

Jim and John Harbaugh led the San Francisco 49ers and Ravens, respectively, in Super Bowl XLVII, and this time around, Jim has an opportunity to knock John back down toward the middle of the pack as far as wild card aspirants are concerned. 

That’s not all we’ve got. The Detroit Lions, who could be the best team of them all right now, take on the Indianapolis Colts, while the New York Giants, who benched - then released - Daniel Jones and have Tommy DeVito taking over at QB again, host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Seattle Seahawks have a chance to pull into a tie in the NFC West with the Arizona Cardinals when these teams play. 

Let’s go: 

BALTIMORE RAVENS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, 8:15 PM ET Monday

Monday Night Football Odds at BetOnline:

Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 (-105)

Over 51 Points -105
Under 51 Points -115

This is obviously one Monday Night game that will get enough pre-game hype. After blowing a three-touchdown lead and barely escaping against Cincinnati, the Chargers have now won four games in a row and are seriously challenging for a playoff spot in Jim Harbaugh’s first season.

Meanwhile, brother John has no guarantees with his team, which is 7-4 and just lost to the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steleers.

This game presents an interesting contrast. The Ravens have tallied more yards per game and yards per play than any team in the NFL, while the Chargers have surrendered just 14.5 points per contest, which ranks #1 in the league.

The Bolts have had the advantage of not having to play a lot of high-powered offenses, but they were shredded a bit by Cincinnati last week, to the tune of 452 yards. This would be a concern not just for Chargers bettors but “under” bettors as well, especially in light of the fact that the L.A. offense has performed better of late. They posted their highest yardage and point total last week, and there were 48 total first downs in the game.

The Chargers have allowed only three rushing touchdowns but also 4.7 yards per carry, which indicates they could have a hard time dealing with the Baltimore ground machine, They average 5.8 yards per rushing attempt, with workhorse RB Derrick Henry at an even 6.0. 

This isn’t going to be easy; Los Angeles has yielded only 32% on third down and they do not turn the ball over.

Still, very few teams have the rushing game Baltimore possesses, and with that bloated per-carry average on defense, they are bound to give the Ravens better third down situations than might otherwise be expected.

Harbaugh (Jim, that is) generally won’t be able to do what he really likes to do in order to stay in ballgames, which is run the ball and control clock. So Justin Herbert will probably take to the air more. And Baltimore does not take its pass defense with it on the road the way it used to. So maybe, on the fast track at SoFi Stadium, the Bolts find some room behind Quinton Johnson and Ladd McConkey, who have given L.A. a pretty good combo at wide receiver (with Joshua Palmer, that is).

So while we’ve been looking at the under almost all season with the Chargers, this one might just go the other way.


THE PLAY: OVER 51

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 4:25 PM ET Sunday

NFL Odds at BetOnline: 

Arizona Cardinals pick (-113)
Seattle Seahawks pick (-107)

Over 47 Points -115
Under 47 Points -105

Not to disparage the Seahawks any, because Mike MacDonald has done a fine job in his first season after the long reign of Pete Carroll, but there are interesting signs coming from the Cardinals. For one thing, after quite a period of time when their home field meant nothing for them, they’ve put away some teams by considerable margins in Glendale.

They’re not home here, and we do admit that it’s difficult to play in Seattle because of the crowd noise, but there are some fundamentals on the Cards’ side, especially their ability to run the ball (5.2 ypc), while Seattle has had some trouble in that area (4.8 ypc allowed).

Kyler Murray is 69% accurate, has thrown it to the opposition only three times, and is averaging over eight yards per rushing attempt. Meanwhile, Geno Smith is leading the league in passing yards per game but has also thrown eleven picks.

THE PLAY: CARDINALS pick (-113) 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW YORK GIANTS, 1 PM ET Sunday 

NFL Betting Lines from BetAnySports:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6
New York Giants +6

Over 40.5 Points -110
Under 40.5 Points -110

So it was an eventful week for the Giants, wasn’t it? First they announce they’re benching QB Daniel Jones. Then they demote him to third, then fourth, on the depth chart, because, presumably, they didn’t want to risk a Jones injury that would cost them more money.

Then Jones wanted out, and they accommodated him. So the Giants are moving ahead, for the time being, with Tommy DeVito at quarterback, as they try to bounce back from an embarrassing loss two weeks ago to Carolina.

Will he supply a spark? Well, last year DeVito came in as an undrafted free agent rookie and looked like a deer in the headlights at first. But eventually he settled down, and in his last five starts he didn’t suffer an interception in 122 attempts. 

The Bucs have had a better running game than anyone expected (5 ypc), and fundamentally this would seem to click against the Giants, who are last in the league allowing 5.3 yards per attempt. And Tampa Bay gets WR Mike Evans back in the lineup. But tackle Tristan Wirfs is not available, more than likely, which puts Baker Mayfield in a more tenuous position than before.

Do the Giants have anything to play for? Well, they are playing for their jobs, and that includes coach Brian Daboll, perhaps as a coordinator somewhere else. 

By the numbers, very little works for the Giants. But the crowd won’t be as hostile with DeVito, a local folk hero of sorts, in the saddle.

THE PLAY:  GIANTS +6

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DETROIT LIONS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 1 PM ET Sunday 

NFL Odds at BetUS:

Detroit Lions -7.5 (+100)
Indianapolis Colts +7.5 (-120)

Over 50 Points -110
Under 50 Points -110

For all of the shortcomings on the part of Anthony Richardson, including his obvious lack of experience, he has still managed to figure out ways to keep his team in ballgames. So after posting a quarterback rating that is 40 points higher than his season average (this coming against the Jets), there is perhaps some reason for encouragement.

But we’re still not sure he or his Colts teammates have enough answers for this rampaging Detroit side, which has now rolled up a sizzling 45-19 spread record (70%) since the beginning of the 2021 season. 

Jared Goff’s road numbers may not be as good as those at Ford Field, but he’s indoors, which makes him a lot more comfortable. And Indy’s weaknesses in the secondary (allowing 69.5% completions!) seem made to order for him.

Worth noting is that on the road, the Lions have beaten Arizona, Minnesota, Green Bay and Houston, who would all be in the playoffs if the season ended now. 


THE PLAY: LIONS -7.5 (+100)

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