NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Preview and Predictions

The NFL Playoffs continue into the Divisional Round Jan. 17-18, 2026. Top No. 1 seeds Denver Broncos host the Buffalo Bills and the Broncos opened a home underdog. The No. 1 Seattle Seahawks are taking money over division rival San Francisco 49ers. 

Some exciting games and finishes in the Wild Card Round were driving more watch and wager action with five of the six contests close and within one-score into the 4th quarter. The Packers led the Bears 21-6 before blowing it with Chicago winning 31-27. Last year's Wild Card games saw five teams win by double-digits. This year the Patriots and Texans won by double-digits, but held just 9-3 and 7-6 leads into the 4th quarter. 

Home underdogs went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS with the Chicago Bears pulling off another historical comeback win over the Packers. It was the Bears 7th win this season when trailing at the 2 minute warning in the 4th quarter. The Houston Texans led just 7-6 early in the 4th quarter before blowing out the overmatched Pittsburgh Steelers with the Texans dominant defense delivering a pair of 4th quarter touchdowns.

Note as well for future Wild Card betting, as game totals over/under went 2-4 in this year's Wild Card round, and now 25-53 over/under favoring 'Unders' in outdoor Wild Card games dating back to 2004, per Action Network research staff. That includes 16-45 O/U if the total is 41 points or or higher and the game is outdoors (2-3 O/U this year).

Note there were 12 fourth quarter lead changes in the six Wild Card games last weekend. 

NFL Divisional Round Picks And Odds 

Pro football odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spreads listed on favorites. All times Eastern. 

No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Denver Broncos

Spread/Line: Broncos (pk), Total 46.5
Saturday, Jan. 17 | 4:30 p.m. | CBS

Opinion: Broncos (teased both sides when they were 'Dog) 

No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks 

Spread/Line: Seahawks (-7), Total 45.5
Saturday, Jan. 17 | 8:00 p.m. | FOX
Opinion: Seahawks - line settled back to -7 on Thursday.  

No. 5 Houston Texans at No. 2 New England Patriots 

Spread/Line: Patriots (-3.5), Total 41
Sunday, Jan. 18 | 3:00 p.m. | ESPN/ABC
Opinion: Texans 

No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 2 Chicago Bears 

Spread/Line: Rams (-3.5), Total 49
Sunday, Jan. 18 | 6:30 p.m. | NBC
Opinion: Rams

It will be very cold in Chicago, and NFL weather forecast calls for near 17 degrees, 10 mph winds and slight chance of snow. 

Final score updates: Broncos win 33-30 in OT, Seahawks win 41-6, Patriots win 28-16, Rams win 20-17 in OT when this play, a miracle 4th down TD pass sent the game to overtime in the closing seconds of 4th quarter and changed millions of dollars in spread bets. 

The No. 1 seed Denver Broncos opened a slight underdog against the No. 6 Buffalo Bills, and the game went to pick 'em by Tuesday morning. Update: Broncos -1.5 point favorite Friday at BetOnline less than 24 hours ahead of kickoff. Plenty of -1 available. Officiating - Cheffers crew calls most penatlies.  

Another line move saw the No. 1 Seattle Seahawks move from -6.5 to -7 and -7.5 over the No. 6 San Francisco 49ers. The LA Rams (-3.5) are a road favorite against the Chicago Bears. The No. 5 Houston Texans travel again to tackle the No. 2 New England Patriots (-3 to -3.5). 

If the Bills and Rams both close as road favorites, it will be the first time in 54 years there are two road favorites in the Divisional Round. Both those two road favorites, Colts (QB Unitas) and Cowboys (QB Staubach) scored 20 points in low-scoring victories. 

Game analysis updates

The Bears’ pass defense ranks No. 24 in the NFL by the DVOA ratings and should have trouble matching up with the top receivers of the Rams as I outlined at BetOnline. Rams stronger on defense across the board from our DES system. Despite home 'Dogs going 2-0 ATS in the Wild Card round including the Bears miracle comeback win despite a -2 turnover differential, the Rams are the play noting I'll rarely lay road points especially above -3. NFL Playoff home 'Dog record now 37-15 ATS, and Bears +22 net turnover margin is league best assisting in their 7 wins when trailing in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter this season. Like a tournament poker players luck sucking out with the worst of it over and over, it comes to an end when facing stronger players and teams far more often than not. Final decisive blow against the Bears - Rams hold a +1.2 net yards per play edge with the stronger defense in all 4 key categories while facing the strongest schedule in the league vs. the Bears No. 24 Strength of Schedule. You saw what happened to the Steelers in the 2nd half against the visiting road favorite Texans in the Wild Card round. Stronger team and defense delivered despite some dumbo mistakes and 3 turnovers by QB C.J. Stroud. The Bears started the regular season 0-2 and finished 0-2 before last week's miracle Windy City Wild Card win. Not this week against MVP QB Stafford and the superior defense. The Rams are ready to roll into the NFC Championship Game at Seattle next week. 

Playoff experience of the Bills along with QB Josh Allen gives them the edge, but note Buffalo's last minute win over the Jaguars in the Wild Card round saw Buffalo get outrushed 154 to 79 and slightly outgained with a 6.6 yards per play to 5.5 yards per play edge for Jacksonville. Bills run defense allows 5.2 yards per rush - worst of all playoff teams. Now to the Mile High, where the Broncos are rested and ready on 14 days prep with the stronger top 3 defense and across the board in DES. Broncos are 8-1 at home this season with only loss to Jacksonville despite outgaining the Jaguars by 100 yards but suffering a -2 net turnover margin. Stronger run game projection, defense and home field allows the Broncos to win and advance and get redemption for last year's Wild Card round loss to the Bills. 

So many injuries for the 49ers, who are up against it in many ways including travel against division rival Seahawks. Biggest spread of the Divisional Round, and much respect and belief in SF coach Kyle Shanahan and staff. But situational edge with bye, rest and prep plus statistical edges including defense and DES across the board makes Seattle the side to support and especially teasers. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold (follow status) expected to play but was now listed as questionable with oblique issue, and Drew Lock is capable if called upon. Seahawks shut down Niners 13-3 on road in winner-take-all division duel in Week 18. What's changed other than more edges for Seattle, who dominated that game statistically including two-headed RB's rushing for 170+ and 49ers RB McCaffrey just 23 yards. Niners were outrushed by Eagles 140-75 but got the road victory. Not this week with first year Seahawks coach Mike McDonald a masterful job in Seattle after building the Ravens dominant defense under top HC John Harbaugh and plenty of playoff experience game planning. Seahawks stronger on both sides of ball against depleted and tired Niners with Seattle holding a +1.2 net yards per play differential edge in this matchup as well. 

The Texans No. 1 rated defense goes up against AFC top QB this year and MVP finalist Drake Maye, who faces a Houston defense that led the league in expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt and has the DES edge in four other key defensive stat categories. Patriots defense improved led by former NFL linebacker and first-year New England head coach Mike Vrabel. He's done a masterful job as well getting NE to now 15 wins and 14-4 ATS this season after shutting down QB Herbert and the Chargers (207 yards) in the Wild Card round. But the Patriots played the weakest schedule in the NFL this season going from worst to first (14-3) in the AFC East while the Texans faced a top-5 schedule and are on a 13-2 SU run including 10 straight wins after starting the season 0-3. Texans buried the Steelers last week on the road 30-6 with second half dominance. Houston QB C.J. Stroud likely gets exposed at some point in games ahead versus stronger teams and defense, and potentially this week in Foxboro as he rarely plays in colder and inclement weather and had some problems handling the ball in last week's Wild Card win (1 INT, 2 lost fumbles, ugh). But note the Texans rushed for 164 yards last week on 31 attempts, well above their season average (112/game), which ranks worst of the remaining playoff teams. Defense delivers again.  

Defensive Dominators

Defense wins championships, and has also produced nearly 65% ATS results since Week 8 when a NFL team is stronger in 3 or 4 key defensive categories in a matchup - points allowed, yards per play, yardage differential and yards per rush. In the Divisional Round, these four teams are stronger in all four defensive categories over their opponent - Broncos, Seahawks, Texans and Rams. If you project those four teams to win and they are victorious, then you can determine some better value plays in futures and props ahead of Super Bowl LX and also the Big Game on Feb. 8. 

First Time Playoff Starting Quarterbacks

For the third straight year, a rookie quarterback had a strong playoff debut in leading his team to victory in the Wild Card Round. Two years ago it was CJ Stroud of the Texans. Last year' Jayden Daniels led the surprising Commanders to a pair of playoff wins including over the No. 1 seed Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round before getting steamrolled by the eventual Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles. This year, both Drake Maye of the Patriots and Caleb Williams of the Bears were winners in their NFL playoff debut. Maye was sacked five times vs. the Chargers but still passed for 268 yards (17/29) with 1 TD and 1 INT while rushing for another 66 yards (10 attempts), but losing a fumble. Williams passed for 361 yards (24/38) with 2 TD's and 2 interceptions and rushed for 20 yards (4 att). Maye (+105) is also a league MVP finalist with Rams QB Matthew Stafford (-135).

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Divisional Round Props

Betting on the highest scoring game of the Divisional Round?

+125: LAR/CHI
+250: BUF/DEN
+300: SF/SEA
+550: HOU/NE 

Highest scoring team 

+250: Rams
+300: Seahawks
+600: Bears
+650: Bills, Broncos
+700: Patriots
+1400: Texans
+1500: 49ers

The playoffs are much different than the regular season, as the one-and-done format also has teams taking more chances when trailing. Variance along with uncertainty and some poor officiating and calls can change the dynamic of a game and outcome. 

Check out some of the Super Bowl LX props, MVP odds and exact SB matchups ahead of the Divisonal Round games at BetOnline. 

NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Matchups, Data And Odds 

Here is ATS playoff data since 1988, courtesy of Playbook Sports. Rested home teams in the Divisional Round (DEN and SEA) have gone 105-37 SU and 73-65-4 ATS (5-1 SU/4-2 ATS last 3 years and 1-1 SU/2-0 ATS last year). Road teams coming off a Wild Card Round SU and ATS win (BUF, SF, HOU) are 61-76-2 ATS in Divisional Round contests (1-3 SU/3-1 ATS last year, 2-9 SU 6-5 ATS last 3 years).

Check back for more including game insight, analysis, stats and picks with additional information you can bet on ahead of the NFL Divisional Round games. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.