NFL Futures Betting -- Miami Dolphins: Protection's the key for McDaniel's offense in '25

MIAMI DOLPHINS

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The Miami Dolphins' offense was truly a thing to see after Mike McDaniel took over as head coach prior to the 2022 season. Opponents weren't totally prepared for the new look he gave the playbook; of course, many suspected he might be innovative because of his background as a protege of sorts under Mike Shanahan, in a coaching tree that has also included Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and Matt LeFleur.

Miami's offensive attack was so overwhelming in 2023 that it looked as if the team might be a viable Super Bowl contender. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards, and the rushing attack had 27 touchdowns to lead the league, with rookie De'Von Achane averaging a monstrous 7.8 yards a carry. But the big problem was that they couldn't win the AFC East, which led to them being frozen out in the playoff game at Kansas City.

Things took a turn in 2024

Last year the offense looked considerably less threatening, and in fact was below average (18th in passing, 21st in rushing). And the Dolphins missed the playoffs.

Furthermore, there is some discontent on the part of star players. Defensive back Jalen Ramsey has indicated his desire to be traded, and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who chased 2000 yards in 2023 (he wound up with 1799) made no secret of the fact that he was unhappy and wouldn't mind being dealt elsewhere.

There is a lingering problem surrounding Tua's concussions, and how they have affected his delivery.

With all of this, and more, converging on him, you have to wonder whether McDaniel's act is about to get stale, and when ownership might become less enamored of him.

Or, maybe he's just reloading.

But can he reload at this point?

The truth is, the Dolphins need to upgrade the offensive line badly Last season, as a unit, they were ranked 20th in pass blocking and 27th in run blocking by the analytics folks at Pro Football Focus (PFF).

And that unit suffered a loss when Terron Armstead, the left tackle, announced his retirement. Their second round pick in 2024, Patrick Paul, is #1 on the depth chart at that position but is, as yet, unproven.

In 2021, the season before McDaniel arrived, Tua was besieged any time he dropped back to get the ball downfield, because of very little in the way of offensive line support. Basically he was forced to get rid of the ball right away, and indeed his time in the pocket averaged 2.2 seconds, and only one starter in the NFL got rid of the ball faster. His 7.0 average Intended Air Yards per throw was 29th in the league. It was no wonder why Jaylen Waddle, then a rookie, caught 104 passes but averaged only 9.8 yards per catch.

BetOnline patrons know that things changed when McDaniel arrived, at least when Tua was upright. This was the year he officially suffered two concussions, but he also racked up 8.9 yards per attempt. Hill, newly acquired from Kansas City, averaged 14.4 yards per reception, but Waddle's average leaked to 18.1. So the Dolphins were throwing the ball down the field a lot more. They just weren't able to run the ball very well (25th in the NFL), which, considering McDaniel's background as a ground game guru with the 49ers, was a disappointment.

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Miami exploded in 2023, then regressed

In 2023 the Dolphins were #1 in the league in yards gained, second in points, and ran for 27 touchdowns, as McDaniel drew upon the talents of Raheem Mostert, who was with him in San Francisco, and Achane, a speed burner who was drafted in the third round out of Texas A&M. Tua led the league in passing yards (4624), Hill had his monster numbers, and Waddle also topped the 1000-yard mark.

Last year Tua's concussion problems entered the picture again, and he missed four games in the protocol. His 72.9% accuracy rate was the best of his career, but he threw for just 7.2 yards an attempt, which was a considerable step down from the 8.9 he posted in 2022.

Hill averaged just 11.8 yards a catch on his 81 receptions, and tight end Jonnu Smith emerged as a go-to, running short routes.

Tua not going downfield

This table lists Tua's advanced passing stats from 2022-24, according to the folks at Pro Football Reference:

What really sticks out here are the numbers for Intended Air Yards, which represent yards the ball was thrown beyond the line of scrimmage. Look at Tua in 2022 (9.5), and the precipitous drop two years later (5.7), which is actually pretty astounding. He went from someone who really took shots downfield to a dink-and-dunk artist.

Those figures, and the eleven QB hits, which is extraordinarily low, are indicators that Tua was doing whatever he could to avoid punishment.

Was he gun shy? It would appear so. Can that possibly change? We're not sure. A QB who was considering retirement because of the concussions may have settled into a pattern he's not going to get out of.

What did the Dolphins do in the draft?

Regardless of the conditions, he's going to need time to throw. And so it would have made sense that the Dolphins make the O-line a real priority in the draft and free agency.

They did sign guard James Daniels to a three-year, $24 million contract. But Daniels is coming off an Achilles injury he suffered last year as a member of the Steelers. So he's a question mark right away.

Miami did not draft an offensive lineman in the first round. They obviously considered themselves to have a number of priorities, one of which was the defensive line, so they took 331-pound defensive tackle Kenneth Grant of Michigan with the 13th overall pick.

In the second round they pulled the trigger on an offensive guard. Arizona's Jonah Savaiinaea, who ia 6-4 and 324 pounds, played guard and both tackle positions in college, and is said to be very quick for his size. Still, he is not a game-changer and is not necessarily expected to be a starter this coming season.

Speaking of the draft, it may be worth mentioning a couple of late-round selections. Ollie Gordon may have been the best running back in college football a couple of years ago, and indeed won the Doak Walker Award as he led the nation with 1732 yards for Oklahoma State. But his numbers took a big dip as a junior, as he had 880 yards on the ground and about half as many yards from scrimmage as he had the year before. Gordon also ran a so-so 4.61 in the 40-yard dash at the combine. Undoubtedly, McDaniel is hoping he recaptures his 2023 form and he'll have a real chance to be part of a backfield rotation that now includes Achane, speedy Jaylen Wright and veteran Alexander Mattison.

Then there's Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who came out of high achool as a top-rated recruit and was looked upon by some as a real first-round possibility at the start of the 2024 season but lasted until the seventh round. It's kind of ironic that he was able to beat out the likely #1 overall pick in the 2026 draft (Arch Manning) but almost became an undrafted free agent. Pushed out of the Longhorns' situation to make room for Manning, he could have signed a big NIL deal elsewhere, but he'll accept his NFL fate, which for the time being appears to be a third-string spot behind Tua and Zach Wilson.

Whatever happens with these guys and the rest of the offense, they better have some people who can do some big-league blocking. Because if they don't, the Dolphins have no shot at all.

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