Preview and predictions for the return of NFL football on Saturday

For this Saturday’s NFL doubleheader, we get two distinct games that are both doozies to hit on the NFL betting lines. We'll try to find the edge anyway, keeping in mind that both games come with variables. The free-falling Las Vegas Raiders visit the enigmatic Cleveland Browns and the night game features two rising AFC powers when the New England Patriots go to Indianapolis to face the Colts.

The Raiders, due in large part to COVID-19, are tepid favorites per the Las Vegas' NFL odds. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfied and coach Kevin Stefanski found their way onto what was already an overcrowded Browns' COVID list. The positive tests for Mayfield and backup Case Keenum flipped the script as far as the line was concerned, adding to a season that's been all sorts of chaotic. For example, home favorites are winning 59 percent of their games, but covering just 42.1 percent. 

In the second game, the Colts are installed as the small choice.

NFL Week 15: Betting on Tight Matchups

Despite disparities in their recent performances, Las Vegas and New England are two of the more profitable road teams this season. Straight-up, the Raiders are 3-3 (3-2 as underdogs) and the Patriots are unbeaten at 6-0 (2-0 as underdogs) away from home. Vegas has lost five of its last six games overall, though they edged the Cowboys in Dallas as a +225 underdog, making their Thanksgiving. 

New England, on the other hand, went to Buffalo and handled the Bills for a seventh consecutive win. Apparently, the only thing that can slow down the Pats is a bye, which they’re coming off this week.  

However, these two are going up against two of the better home teams as far as betting purposes. Cleveland is 5-2 and Indianapolis is 3-1 as favorites, the latter stat a point of reference in what's now essentially a pick-’em game. 

One of Cleveland’s losses was to Arizona, while Indianapolis' only loss as chalk was against Tennessee, in overtime. In matchups between road warriors and usually reliable home teams, who gets the edge?

Las Vegas Raiders (6-7, 5-8 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (7-6, 5-8 ATS)

Spread: Las Vegas -3½ (-110), Cleveland +3½ (-110)
Moneyline: N/A

Why The Raiders Could Win
As it showed against Dallas and earlier in the season, Vegas can be a potent offensive team, although it has struggled mightily during the current 1-5 slide. Derek Carr is still second in the NFL in passing yards and the Raiders still average the fifth-best yards per play. Las Vegas' defense has been horrible, allowing the second-most points per game (27.7) in the league.

Fortunately for the Raiders, Cleveland also has had issues offensively. The Browns have failed to hit the 20-point mark in seven of their last 10 games, while averaging just 21.4 points. Their defense has been doing the heavy lifting, but has been gashed on the ground.

If Las Vegas can get its run game going, it can give the Browns a run for their money.

Why The Raiders Could Lose
Because they’re the Raiders? After a 3-0 start, the Raiders have gone 3-7 and there's sufficient blame to go around. The offense has been held under 20 points in five of their last six games while the defense has given up 30 or more points in four of the last six.

Injuries have also begun to pile up on Las Vegas, with the likes of Darren Waller, Carl Nassib, and Kenyan Drake either banged up or out entirely. This season is beginning to resemble the past two, as the Raiders managed a 1-5 record to end 2019 and 2-5 to wrap 2020, after starting both seasons with winning records.

Pick: Cleveland Browns +3½ (-110)

New England Patriots (9-4, 9-4 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6, 8-5 ATS)

Spread: New England +2½ (-110), Indianapolis -2½ (-110)
Moneyline: New England +115 Indianapolis -135

Why The Patriots Could Win
At this point, betting against Bill Belichick seems like a high-risk, low-reward endeavor. The "GOAT" has his team fighting for the top seed in the AFC after this current run, including that aforementioned win at Buffalo and blowouts against Tennessee and Cleveland. 

The Patriots' defense has been the best in the NFL in this span, allowing just one team (LA Chargers) to score over 20 points. The Pats have also been the league's best at forcing turnovers, ranking third overall, with a +13 differential during the streak. After committing seven turnovers in his first six starts, rookie quarterback Mac Jones has committed just three since. 

As long as New England has this edge in turnovers, they’re the team to bet on the   .     

Why The Patriots Could Lose
As great as the Pats have been, they have several unaddressed issues, including their paltry red zone percentage (54.3) and mediocre 5.6 yards per play. New England has also been vulnerable against power-running teams, which is exactly what the Colts are. 

The Colts average the second-most rushing yards (151.7) in the NFL. Leading the way is Jonathan Taylor, who looks like the Derrick Henry of this season. Defensively, the Colts have the Pats beat, leading the NFL in turnovers forced and coming away with at least two thefts in all but two games. Predatory defense combined with prolific running games is the M.O. for both teams, but the Colts appear the better of the two.   

Pick: New England Patriots +115

Betting Picks
The Browns should be able to hold steady and beat the Raiders. Even with COVID running rampant and third-string quarterback Nick Mullens expected to start, the Raiders are terrible on both sides of the ball, making them an easy fade. Meanwhile, the Patriots should be able to edge the Colts as New England  is more efficient on offense. 

Pick: Cleveland +3½ (-110) & New England (+115) at +310