Picks and Predictions for Week 13 of the NFL season

The weekend of pro football kicked off with Thanksgiving Day games with some early picks and props as part of our Week 13 totals, teasers and trends. A winner for us on the  Dallas Cowboys as outright 'Dog was part of a 3-0 sweep for NFL underdogs on Thanksgiving Day and a 4-0 SU/ATS sweep with the Chicago Bears (+7) outright road win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday. 

Two of those wins were in division games with the Packers picking up a big 31-24 road win over the Detroit Lions with nearly identical offensive stats. Then the Ravens sh*t the bed with QB Lamar Jackson reverting to his scatterbrain way with 3 turnovers including 2 fumbles. Jackson leads all NFL players with the most fumbles since 2022. And you wonder why the he'll never win a Super Bowl. Couldn't even get the the AFC Championship Game a few years ago with the best defense in the NFL playing at home off a bye.

The Bears completed the 4-0 SU/ATS sweep for Thanksgiving underdogs in the best matchups of Week 13 with no marquee matchups on Sunday and just two contests with winning teams - Houston at Indianapolis and Buffalo at Pittsburgh.  

NFL Week 13 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold. 

- Houston at Indianapolis (-4), 44 
- Arizona at Tampa Bay (-3.5), 44.5
- Jacksonville (-6 / 6.5) at Tennessee, 41.5
- LA Rams (-10.5) at Carolina, 44.5
- New Orleans at Miami (-5.5), 41.5
- Atlanta (-2.5) at NY Jets, 39
- San Francisco (-4.5 / 5) at Cleveland, 36.5
- Minnesota at Seattle (-11.5), 41
- Buffalo (-3 / 3.5) at Pittsburgh, 45
- Las Vegas at LA Chargers (-9.5), 40.5
- Denver (-6 / 6.5) at Washington, 43 SNF
- NY Giants at New England (-7 / 7.5), 46.5 

Check out the Week 13 injury reports, and monitor the NFL weather. Cleveland projects to have winds gusting greater than 25 mph, 50% chance snow and near freezing temperatures. Potential rain at a number of other NFL cities. 

Also note more quarterback changes with the Vikings starting undrafted rookie Max Brosmer (University of Minnesota) with J.J. McCarthy in concussion protocol and Carson Wentz having season-ending shoulder surgery. The Vikings are the biggest underdog on the Week 13 schedule at Seattle. 

Fairways Forecast and NFL picks are 3-0 the past three weeks after the Dallas Cowboys outright 'Dog win on Thanksgiving Day. Picks and opinions are 7-2 overall the past three weeks heading into NFL Week 14 on Sunday. That followed a 3-0 result on both Week 12 game totals and teasers. Player props are 17-11 since Week 3 after a pair of turkey day turnovers with the game script changed as the Ravens fell behind and had 5 turnovers.

Turnovers = Trouble 

For those keeping score and tracking turnovers like I do, teams that are +3 or more in turnovers during a NFL game are now 22-3 SU and ATS this season and a longterm 92% ATS winning profile. The Jaguars win over the Cardinals in Week 12 with 4 turnovers to zero for Arizona for our tips and totals winner is a rare exception. 

Let's try to avoid the turnovers, hazards and rough the final weekend of football heading into the stretch drive in December as teams push towards the playoffs with college football rivalry games also part of a huge watch and wager weekend before the conference championship games and announcement of teams and bracket for the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

Bet on the NFL at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

NFL Week 13 Picks

Time for some ugly underdogs after Thanksgiving NFL underdogs went 4-0 with three solid teams and even the Bengals (+7) winning as big road 'Dog along with the Bears (+7) winning on the road over the Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles. Chicago (9-3) continues to lead the most competitive NFC North ahead of Green Bay (8-3) and defending division champs Detroit (7-5). The Bears tackle the Packers next Sunday in Green Bay in a key Week 14 contest and play Green Bay again in Week 16 and host Detroit at Soldier Field in Week 18.  

- Picks: Cowboys (won), Texans, Panthers 

- Opinions: Ravens (lost), Browns, Steelers, Commanders 

3-team parlay: Browns, Steelers, Commanders
2-team 'Dog parlay: Texans, Panthers

NFL Player Props 

Two bad player props on Thanksgiving drops the record to 17-11 since Week 3 with another pair of misses the opening two weeks.

- Titans QB Cam Ward - Over 11.5 rushing yards (up to 14.5) 

Rookie Cam Ward is still strugging pretty badly in his rookie season. He's averaging 200 passing yards per game and less than 6 yards per pass with a 7/6 TD-to-INT ratio. Ward ranks near the very bottom for NFL quarterbacks this season in QB rating, Expected Points Added and EPA per pass. In his defense, the Titans (1-10) offensive line is bad, currently ranked No. 28 by Pro Football Focus and some potential offensive linemen missing this week with injuries suffered last week. That should have him on the move and able to run more after he rushed for his season highs the past two games against top 5 defenses of Seahawks and Texans with 37 and 33 yards on 9 total carries. The Titans (1-10) are still being considered as an underdog with more player status updates over the weekend, but nothing more than an opinion and under the total in play with situational and statistical support in our Week 13 tips, totals and teasers.

The Titans and Ward faced Seattle and Houston as top 3 yards per play defenses and top 5 rushing yards per game defenses the past two weeks. A number of situations and trends point towards more scoring than expected. Playing their third straight home game having also lost on a last second field goal to the Texans 16-13, the Titans and Ward can have more success this week. 

Check back for any additions as we chip-in more NFL picks, props and parlays with information you can bet on. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.