NFL Upset Pick of the Week: Patriots Over Bills



A preview of the Patriots at Bills Monday Night football game, with betting tips and a free pick.

Preview and prediction for Patriots at Bills

Upsets are not uncommon in the NFL, but this season has seen more than its share.

Through 12 weeks, 40.6% of underdogs (71-104-1) have won on the moneyline and 56.4% have cashed on the spread per the NFL odds. Underdog bettors are running hot right now, and one team all-too-familiar with this are the Buffalo Bills . . . on the wrong end.

Monday Night FootballThe Bills opened the season with an upset loss against the Steelers as 6½-point favorites, and followed this up with three more losses as at least a -300 favorite in each one — ouch!

Now, Buffalo gets another tough underdog as their arch-nemesis, the New England Patriots roll into town as our Week 13 Upset of the Week.

Upset of the Week: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

After just one season where Buffalo and New England flipped roles as winner and loser, the Patriots are seemingly flipping the tables again. The Patriots are the NFL’s hottest team, while Buffalo has just one win against a team above .500. 

Still, Buffalo is favored on the NFL betting lines even if there is plenty of evidence that Bill Belichick and his boys are going to waltz into Highmark Stadium and walk away with a ‘W’.

The Favorite: Buffalo Bills (7-4, 6-4-1 ATS)
-- Spread: -2½ (-115)
-- Moneyline: -140

Why The Bills Are The Favorites: The Bills being second in the NFL in point differential says a lot about this team and the stats: Buffalo squashes the bad teams, even if it falls short against most of the good teams. When they win, they win emphatically: an average of 26.1 points. 

Buffalo Bills MNF predictionThey’ve covered six of their seven wins and are still largely a Super Bowl contender. Josh Allen is an elite quarterback and, despite some poor performances, has thrown for the third-most passing touchdowns and is tenth in net yards per attempt.     

Why They Could Lose: It bears repeating, but Buffalo is just 1-3 against teams with a .500 record or better. Buffalo may have the second-most points in the NFL, but the Bills scored 16 or fewer points in three of their four losses — and in two of these losses allowed over 140 yards rushing. 

Allen has turned the ball over seven times versus scoring just six touchdowns whenever Buffalo loses. A big part of this is him getting sacked and/or pressured. On the defensive side, Buffalo is susceptible to the run and they now lost their best defender in Tre’Davious White, which can also weaken their passing defense. 

The Underdog: New England Patriots (8-4, 8-4 ATS)
-- Spread: +2½ -105
-- Moneyline: +120

Why The Patiots Are The Underdogs: The Patriots have been on a roll, but it is fair to say they have a bit of a padded record. Like the Bills, most of the Pats’ wins have come against losing teams with the 6-5 Chargers and injury-depleted Titans as their only other wins of note. 

New England was also swept by the Bills last season and Mac Jones. While proving himself to be a steady quarterback, he still has his limitations. The Patriots have also been outgained in half of their games, and Jones has been subpar on the road with four turnovers versus three touchdowns and a passer rating of 87.8.

Patriots Bills MNF predictionWhy They Could Win: Despite Jones's struggles on the road, the Pats are a perfect 5-0 away from Gillette Stadium and 4-1 against the spread. Credit the defense, which has allowed just 11.6 points against opponents in their own stadium. This unit may be the best defense the Pats have had since their early Super Bowl years — no hyperbole.

The Pats lead the league in takeaways and have forced opponents to turn the ball over three or more times in five games this season (all wins). This team has a +10 turnover differential, which is even better than Buffalo’s (+9). New England also has the best record as an underdog in the NFL in over a decade at 57.1% (16-12).  

How It Happens . . .

Both of these teams have elite defenses that are adept at forcing turnovers. Allen gets the edge over Jones when it comes to improvising or bouncing back after bad possessions, and that’s why the Bills have the edge on the NFL betting odds

But the Patriots won’t give Allen and the Bills the chance. The team is fifth in the NFL in sacks and will continually pressure Allen, who is turnover-prone while their ninth-ranked rushing attack on the road will grind down the defense and keep Allen and co. off the field. In what should be the Pats' toughest test, they will edge the Bills and go 9-1 in Orchard Park. 

Pick: New England Patriots +125




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