Pro Basketball Betting -- Bucks-Raptors: From "Fear the Deer" to "Oh My Dear"

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, May 25th, 2019 3:20:52 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Milwaukee Bucks, who have blown a 2-0 lead, will try to stave off elimination as they visit the Toronto Raptors, who can earn a trip to the NBA Finals with a Game 6 victory.


Yeah, it's happened that quick, seemingly, for the Milwaukee Bucks. They were filled with vigor and vitality, then all of a sudden a lot of the life appeared to get sucked right out of them. And now they stand on the verge of elimination as they face Game 6 against the Toronto Raptors. It's 8:35 PM ET on Saturday night at the Scotiabank Arena, with the Raptors trying to clinch a trip to the NBA Finals at home.

On Thursday night, Kawhi Leonard, who at this time last year was wondering where his next landing spot would be, had 35 points, while his teammate Fred VanVleet, who has caught fire after the recent birth of his child, nailed seven triples for 21 points. Then there was a little help from the officials in the latter stages of the 105-99 victory.

Milwaukee has not stopped Toronto from the three-point arc the way that it did in the four regular season meetings, when they held the Raptors to just 27%. This much is very clear: if the Bucks, whose defensive setup allows for a lot of three-point attempts, can't put opponents into poor shot selection from out there, or restrict most of those attempts to guys who aren't very good at it, they are going to have a lot of problems. And things are sliding for them from that perspective.

And when you look at the whole landscape of things, the Bucks don't seem to have been able to handle some of the countermeasures presented to them by the Raptors. And thus, they have suffered in the mental side of the game. Or so it seems. That could all change if Milwaukee is able to seize control of themselves once again with a road win.

In the pro basketball betting odds that have been posted on this game by the folks over at BetAnySports, the Raptors are the slight favorites:

Toronto Raptors -2 (-105)
Milwaukee Bucks +2 (-105)

Over 212.5 points (-105)
Under 212.5 points (-105)

The decision on the part of Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer to start Malcolm Brogdon in the backcourt with Eric Bledsoe brought some resistance from the media. Mostly it was hindsight after the Game 5 result. Charles Barkley of TNT felt that Brogdon being out there prevented Khris Middleton (2-for-9 in the game) from developing a shooting rhythm. In other words, there were too many shooters out there at once. Well, both of those guys were i the starting lineup almost all season, so somehow it had been working before Brogdon's injury.

If Barkley turns out to be right, however, it can create some kind of domino effect. If Middleton can't get enough shots, that hurts, and the bench stands to suffer as well, because not only would Brogdon not be out there as much competing against second unit players, but you'd also be seeing Nikola Mirotic, primarily a three-point shooter who has not been hitting three-pointers (just 6 for 31 in the series). Or maybe his minutes would be very limited, in which case he's no help either.

One way or another, someone will have to slow down VanVleet, or the super-athletic Norman Powell, who scored 37 points between Games 3 and 4, as Toronto's bench started to draw even and surpass that of Milwaukee. That was a perceived advantage for the Bucks, as was the defense. They'll have to bring that back if they want to force a seventh game.

And that, in turn, brings us to what we are going to do with this game. The pattern in NBA playoff series is that when it comes down to crunch time, the teams, who are real familiar with each other, are not letting opponents operate so easily on offense. And this has borne itself out in the results; if you go back fifteen seasons, you are looking at 58% winners if you took the "under" in Game 6 or 7. It makes sense that teams would take more time on their possessions. And Toronto wouldn't mind a slow pace as it is. So while we can imagine the Raptors pushing their advantage and winning this game, out primary move here is "under" the total.


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(The preceding information has been furnished for news matter only)


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