NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2025 Season Preview

Pro Football Futures Odds at BetOnline:

To Win Super Bowl +6600
To Win AFC Championship +4000
To Win AFC East +600
Regular Season Wins -- Over 7.5 wins (-175), Under 7.5 (+145)

The New England Patriots didn't have a whole lot to cheer about in 2024. Things were really dark. But there may some light at the end of the tunnel.

In fact, those people making the odds have shown a whole lot more faith in them, as you can see.

One of the reasons is because owner Robert Kraft went out and found an experienced hand to put at the wheel. Mike Vrabel, who won three Super Bowls with the Patriots as a player, was available and looking to re-enter the head coaching ranks. He'd had success at Tennessee; Vrabel compiled a 54-45 record with two AFC South titles while he was with the Titans. After being let go, he spent a year as a consultant with the Cleveland Browns, knowing that he was one of the most valuable candidates for any opening that came along.

There was one opening he wanted more than any other. And that opening materialized when Kraft made a coaching change. The general consensus - and this seemed to be the feeling on the part of the players - was that Jerod Mayo, who had been a linebacker coach for the Pats before being handed the top job when Bill Belichick left the organization, was not quite prepared for the job. So he was out after one season, in which the team had gone 4-13.

That, combined with the proposition that the window to get someone like Vrabel was going to close, prompted Kraft to intensify negotiations.

And now the franchise has some renewed hope.

Building back is easier with a QB in tow

Of course, this is not a case of "reloading." This is a complete rebuild, and that meant upgrading on both sides of the ball through the draft, trades and / or free agency.

New England is fortunate in that they didn't have to include a new quarterback as part of this off-season. Last year they drafted QB Drake Maye out of North Carolina, and he looked to most observers like someone with a real upside. Maye, who has a big arm, a quick release and can run, took over the job early in the '24 season. He threw for 2275 yards and 15 touchdowns with ten interceptions, and through a number of player pullouts, found himself going to the Pro Bowl Games.

Maye also endured 34 of the 52 sacks the Pats' offensive line gave up, so there was no doubt that this was going to be a priority. In point of fact, according to ESPN Analytics, New England was 31st in the NFL in Pass Block Win Rate and 32nd in Run Block Win Rate.

The protection factor

Vrabel and Executive VP Elliot Wolf had some choices as to what to do with the #4 overall draft pick, but they turned down offers to trade down, instead grabbing left tackle Will Campbell out of LSU. There was some pre-draft talk about Campbell's relatively short arms, but he is considered to be perhaps the most athletic of the tackle prospects and should be an asset in both the run game and pass protection.

He's the guy to protect Maye's blind side.

The center position was obviously one where management felt help was needed, so they made a deal to bring in Garrett Bradbury, who had been a starter at Minnesota, and made Jared Wilson of Georgia a third-round draft pick. Long-time veteran Morgan Moses was also signed and may be the starter at right tackle. Cole Strange, who graded sixth-best in pass blocking by Pro Football Focus while playing center, is penciled in at left guard.

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Who'll be on the other end of Maye's tosses?

In further interest of providing Maye with more help in his second season, the Pats bulked up their receiving corps. And as BetOnline patrons know, with an offense like they had (30th in points, 31st in yards), any help is appreciated.

Of course, they will have to get a little bit lucky. Stefon Diggs was once an elite-level receiver in the NFL (with six consecutive thousand-yard seasons), but for New England to cash in big on the free agent contract he signed (three years, $69 million), he'll have to recover from an ACL injury he suffered last October. Mack Hollins, an arrival from the Buffalo Bills who is thus far best known as a guy who walks around bare-footed, will contribute, and Kyle Williams, a third-round pick from Washington State who has upside, might find himself as the #2 receiver for Maye. With the likes of Keyshoun Boutte, Dermario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne still around, there is the potential for a deep WR room.

Some much-needed help for Rhamondre Stevenson (who recently sustained the loss of his father) and Antonio Gibson in the backfield has arrived in the person of second-round pick TreVeyon Henderson, a big-play threat who averaged over seven yards a carry at Ohio State last year, and who only needs to stay healthy to be a nice contributor.

A familiar face is back as the offensive coordinator. Josh McDaniels won six Super Bowls with the Patriots as an assistant, and this will be his third different stint with the team, with head coaching jobs in Denver and Las Vegas in between. He's worked with a number of these offensive players, including Bourne, who couldn't be happier to see him back.

Stopping the other team

After 13 years as an NFL assistant, Terrell Williams joins the Pats as defensive coordinator. He spent six of those seasons with Vrabel in Tennessee, but last year got to the playoffs with the Detroit Lions.

The Pats will be looking to attack the quarterback a great deal more. They were last in sacks in the NFL last season, and that was part of the rationale in signing Boston College alum Harold Landry III, who played for Vrabel in Tennessee. Joining Christian Barmore and Keion White, he'll try to help establish a defense that will play, as Vrabel puts it, "on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage."

One key off-season acquisition has been linebacker Robert Spillane, who signed a three-year, $37 million contract. He played for Vrabel with the Titans when he broke into the league, and later became a particular favorite of Antonio Pierce when playing for the Raiders. Carlton Davis, who was with Detroit last year before signing a $60 million deal, will be the #2 cornerback to All-Pro Christian Gonzalez in what might be a vastly improved defensive backfield.

As far as free agency goes, the Patriots may have made the biggest stretch with Milton Williams, who came over from the world champion Eagles for $104 million over four years. He had a very nice Super Bowl performance, but was not a full-time starter in Philadelphia. He'll get a chance to start in New England, but he needs to get some pressure on the quarterback.

All told, there might be five or six new starters on a Patriots' defensive unit that will carry with it a whole new attitude.

Conclusion

The truth is, the Pats took advantage of the opportunity to upgrade themselves just about everywhere, and this leads to a step in the right direction.

The Miami Dolphins may not have done a whole lot to improve their chances, and the New York Jets may have stuck themselves in some kind of limbo with a commitment to Justin Fields at quarterback. So the Patriots have a real chance to snare second place in the AFC East.

But they're not likely to beat out the Buffalo Bills, so how does that manifest itself into a wager?

As much faith as we might have in this team, we're not sure that -175 (Over 7.5 wins) is a value price for the kind of improvement they'll need to make. Then again, it's an agreeable schedule, so perhaps it's worth a thought.

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