Picks and predictions for Week 10 of the NFL season

The Denver Broncos (8-2) are the first team this season to reach 8 wins following an ugly, poor performance from both teams in a 10-7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) in Mile High to kick off NFL Week 10 action. A light week of picks and opinions below will include parlays and player props, which are 13-5 this season since Week 3 posting on these pages at Off Shore Gaming Association.

Following back-to-back weeks of scores averaging more than 48.5 points per game, the Broncos and Raiders offenses both had just 10 first downs, 220 and 188 total yards offense and a measly 3.8 and 3.2 yards per play. Denver won yet another close contest, this time without some key defenders as injuries continue to impact teams into the second half of the regular season.

Six division games are on the NFL Week 10 schedule highlighted by the Rams-49ers NFC West showdown at Levi's Stadium, home of the Niners and site of the Super Bowl LX on February 8, 2026.

Looking ahead to NFL Week 11, nine division games make it a most meaningful week with the Broncos-Chiefs game in Denver and Seahawks-Rams showdown in Los Angeles headlining the key Week 11 contests which I outline for BetOnline. 

As you review the picks, parlays and props below and into the weekend, check out my NFL Week 10 tips, totals, teasers and trends for more insight and information you can bet on. 

NFL Week 10 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold. 

- Las Vegas at Denver (-9), 43 - Thursday (Broncos win 10-7)
- Atlanta vs Indianapolis (-6.5), 48 - Berlin, Germany
- Cleveland (-2.5) at New York Jets, 37.5
- New Orleans at Carolina (-5.5), 39.5
- Buffalo (-9.5) at Miami, 50 
- Jacksonville (-1.5) at Houston, 37.5
- Baltimore (-4 / 4.5) at Minnesota, 49
- New England at Tampa Bay (-2.5), 48
- New York Giants at Chicago (-4 / 4.5), 46.5
- Arizona at Seattle (-6.5), 45
- Detroit (-8) at Washington, 49
- Los Angeles Rams (-4.5 / 5) at San Francisco, 49.5
- Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5), 44.5 SNF
- Philadelphia at Green Bay (-1.5), 46 MNF 

The Packers are -2.5 at most top online sportsbooks with BetOnline offering reduced line as low as -1 with higher odds (-124).

The Browns (2-6) are favored with a 4-point swing as the Jets (1-7) opened a home favorite but since traded away their top two defenders including shutdown cornerback Sauce Gardner to the first place Colts (7-2).  

Thought I would 'stick with it' on the Falcons as big 'Dog vs. Colts in Germany. But more injury issues and concerns for Atlanta facing the Colts top offense leading the league in scoring (32.2 ppg), while Indianpolis also upgrades on defense at the trade deadline with addition of top CB Sauce Gardner. 

NFL Week 10 Picks

Picks: Panthers
Opinions: Bears 

Not as much to like or interest in the Week 10 NFL card, and I'll add more to the parlays below over the weekend with more research and injury review, including with the Falcons as they play the Colts in Germany.

3-team parlay: Panthers, Bears, Chargers  
2-team 'Dog parlay: Texans, Patriots

Saints-Panthers

Seems a bit difficult to support the Panthers (5-4) laying more points with a mostly clueless quarterback in Bryce Young, whose passing stats and metrics are among the worst in the league. But Carolina's rushing attack is top-5 and up to 140 yards per game with RB Rico Dowdle running wild and leading the NFC in rushing (735 yards) while averaging 5.6 yards per rush. The Panthers also run the ball an average of 30 times per game (a key stat & winning ATS results) including 32.1 over their last three contests. Consider too that the Saints (1-8 SU / 2-7 ATS) run the ball just 23.6 times per game including a league-low 15.3 over their last three contests and have a rookie quarterback making his second start. The Saints run defense ranks in the bottom quartile of the league allowing 129 ypg and allow a league-high 32.2 rushing attempts per game. The Panthers have allowed just 73 rushing yards per game in their five wins, and the Saints awful ground game combined with rookie quarterback Shough making his second start and now without traded WR Rashid Shaheed makes it more difficult to move the ball. The Saints have the NFC's worst scoring offense (15.3 ppg) and have failed to score 20 or more points in 6 of their last 7 games while averaging just 9 points per game over their last three contests. This is the most lopsided rushing projection on the Week 10 card, although the last time it lined up as such, at least on paper, we took it in the A-- when the Falcons (-7) lost at home 34-10 to the lowly Dolphins. Still, Panthers should be on the prowl and know too that NFL teams that win the game straight up are 87-7 ATS this season in competitively-lined games (6 or less). 

Giants-Bears - The Bears and their league-best +13 turnover margin also project to have a big rushing game edge over the Giants at home in Chicago.   

Ravens-Vikings - The Vikings lead the NFL with a 45% pressure rate and a league-high 58% blitz rate while the Ravens offensive line ranks 27th in pass blocking efficiency. Minnesota is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS off a SU underdog win under head coach Kevin O'Connell. 

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

The Week 10 injury reports are filled with questions again including on a key NFC West contest between the Los Angeles Rams (6-2) and San Francisco 49ers (6-3). The Niners are without key defenders the rest of the season and likely missing QB Brock Purdy (toe) again, and he hasn't played since Week 4. Quarterback Mac Jones has provided some stability for a Niners offense that ranks top-10 in total yards per game (352), but still behind No. 7 Rams (370) with LA also ranking top-7 in yards per play (5.8) and scoring (26.1) offense. Pro Football Focus has Jones with a passing grade (16th) and overall grade (11th) out of 38 quarterbacks.

The Rams lost to the Niners 26-23 in overtime as an 8.5-point favorite on Oct. 2. Since then, Los Angles has won 3-straight games over the Ravens, Jaguars and Saints by a combined margin of 86-20 while balancing the offensive attack with nearly 30 rushing attempts per contest. But in that Oct. 2 contest, San Francisco had the ball for more than 40 minutes (LA 26) in a pass-heavy game with Jones completing 33-of-49 passes for 342 yards and 2 TD's while Rams QB Matthew Stafford was 30-of-47 for 389 yards and 3 touchdown passes. Neither quarterback threw an interception. Stafford is climbing the MVP odds board along with the Rams Super Bowl odds. The Rams have one of the top offenses in the NFL, and Stafford enters this contest among the NFL passing leaders with 2,147 passing yards, 21 TD passes and just 2 interceptions. Los Angeles also has a top 10 defense allowing 303 yards per game at 4.7 yards per play (top-5), and 30 yards per game better than the 49ers decimated defense. Niners stars LB Warner and DE Bosa are out for the season along with first round pick DE Williams and DE Gross-Matos out until December. That impacts the running games and point of attack play, as the rushing stats are not favorable for the Niners, who average a league-low 3.5 yards per rush. 

The stats and matchups point to the Rams, although I don't like to lay road points and rarely more than a field goal. Recall I posted NFL underdog picks only at OSGA with a 57% ATS result from 2017-2023 before the 2024 record results for NFL favorites starting in Week 11. But I still can't support the Niners as home 'Dog with injury issues and stats clearly supporting the Rams. Los Angeles is among the top-3 teams with a +1.1 yards per play differential, and holds a +1.2 yards per play differential edge over the 49ers in this key NFC West contest. 

Dr. Bob Sports adds this situational system and trend. The Rams have won their last two games by scores of 34-10 and 35-7 but teams that scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 13 points in each of their last two games are just 13-47 ATS, including 2-22 ATS on the road. The 49ers, meanwhile, apply to a 92-28-1 ATS home underdog situation.

NFL Player Props 

- Rams QB Matthew Stafford - Over 263.5 passing yards

High yardage numbers on Matthew Stafford and WR Puca Nucua (91.5), who lead an elite offense and have matchup edges to have another big game against their rival on the road. The 49ers defense is significantly worse without LB Warner, DE Bosa and DE Williams, and Stafford can attack nickelback Upton Stout, who is surrendering 1.40 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th-worst). He'll struggle to contain WR Puka Nacua, who is averaging 0.69 EPA/target (3rd). The Niners upset the Rams 26-23 in OT to kickoff Week 5. Stafford passed 47 times and completed 30 for 389 yards and 3 touchdowns against a Niners defense that has allowed 68% pass completions (bottom quartile of NFL). Mac Jones also put on an aerial show in that contest going 33/49 for 342 yards and neither QB threw an interception. Now the 49ers defense is weaker, and Stafford can continue his MVP-type season that includes 21 TD passes and just 2 INTs while averaging 268 passing yards per game. 

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - Over 77.5 receiving yards 

Considered Nucua of the Rams, and you can reduce wager as interested, but St. Brown has more solid edges to have another big game with a top QB/WR combo. The Lions are big road favorites with the Commanders defense having issues and QB Jayden Daniels injured last week and out for awhile with a dislocated elbow. St. Brown leads the Lions with 635 receiving yards, including 357 yards from the slot in eight games this season - second most in the league. The Commanders defense ranks last in the league in yards allowed to slot receivers, and 67.4% pass completions. St. Brown has been targeted by QB Goff at least seven times every game, four times double-digits, and his 72 targets through Week 9 are tied for the fifth most among wide receivers with an 81% completion rate top-3. The Commanders rank 31st in the NFL in Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade (40.2), and the nickelback trying to contain St. Brown is one of the worst in the league. 

- Check back over the weekend for additions with last Sunday's 'under' passing yards winner on Commanders QB Jayden Daniels improved the player props posted at OSGA to 13-4 since Week 3 before a Monday Night Football player prop loser.  

I'll be back with more Week 10 updates along with the big Monday Night Football game between first place teams as the Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) tackle the Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) in a key NFC contest at Lambeau Field. It's a rematch of last year's Wild Card playoff game, and the NFL weather is worth monitoring as temperatures in Green Bay fall below freezing. Projected winds greater than 15 mph and a slight chance of snow, along with snow in Chicago and strong gusting winds with rain in the forecast in more NFL cities.

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.    

You can bet on it.