The Houston Rockets return home for Game 3 of their NBA Western Conference Playoff series against Golden State. I’m going to focus on the 1st half betting line which is a rarity for me. However, when a proven against-the-spread betting angle that makes perfect sense presents itself, it will undoubtedly capture my attention. Currently, the NBA betting odds at 5Dimes has Houston as a 3.0-point 1st half favorite over Golden State.

1st Half Betting Angle: NBA Home Playoff Teams Down 2-0 in Series

If you’ve regularly wagered on the NBA for any prolonged length of time, then I’m probably not going to be enlightening you when discussing the simplest form of this topic. However, you never know what more can be learned when delving deeper into the subject matter. I would highly advise the rest of you to pay attention to these details and store them away for future use.

This profitable NBA betting system involves playoff teams that return home for Game 3 and trail in the series 2-0. Since 2005, those home teams have gone 56-27 ATS (67.5%) with regards to 1st half betting. If those home teams were a 1st half favorite, then they improved to an even better 32-13 ATS (71.1%). Taking this one step further, if those home teams were a 1st half favorite of 2.5 to 6.5-points they became a cash cow that’s gone 20-4 ATS (83.3%). If those home teams were facing opponents with an overall season win percentage of .640 or better, they ascend to a lucrative 16-2 ATS (88.9%) over that precise time frame. By the way, counting postseason action, the Warriors record is 63-27 which equates to a win percentage of .700.

The Rational and Logic

There’s been several occasions throughout the past few decades that I’ll stumble upon a sports betting system that looks impressive on paper, but heavily leans more toward coincidental than logical. I can unequivocally say with utmost confidence that this isn’t one of those cases. That’s not to imply I expect to win every time this situation arises. Nevertheless, the impressive win rate over a 15-year period runs parallel to rational thinking and sound logic.

Concerning the rational, Game 3 home teams attempting to overcome a 2-0 series hole are most likely to be playing with a high degree of desperation and urgency. Keep in mind, no NBA Playoff team has ever overcome a 3-0 series deficit, and if those home teams expect to have a realistic chance of advancing to the next round, then they better win Game 3. You can expect those teams to be energized by a home audience that’s amped up, and more times than not it shows up early in these games. Lastly, if they’re a 1st half favorite exact conditions previously alluded to, then most likely they possess a strong home court and are quality teams.

Final Thoughts and 1st Half Pick

The Rockets are 34-10 (.773) at home this season and that certainly qualifies as a strong home court. Houston also owns an overall season record of 57-32 (.641) and that indeed can be construed as a quality team. Additionally, it’s not like they were blown out in the fist 2 games of this series. The Rockets lost the series opener by 4 and came up 6-points short in Game 2. I fully expect Houston’s players to compete like their hair is on fire and especially early in the game. Hence, I’ll be betting on the 1st half favorite of this NBA Western Conference playoff game between teams that have developed a bitter rivalry.

Pick: Bet Houston -3.0 (+108) in the 1st half