Sunday Night Football Betting -- Browns Hope Pressure and Ground Game Does Job vs. Ravens

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Nov 28th, 2021 2:55:28 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Cleveland Browns have a healthy backfield, as well as a blueprint for defending against Lamar Jackson as these teams line up on Sunday night.


The Cleveland Browns have a strange scheduling quirk. It seems that they play the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, then have a bye week, then play the Ravens again. BetOnline patrons may not know if that presents any interesting possibilities. But it does mean that they can soak in what Lamar Jackson is up to, then turn around and make adjustments with two weeks to prepare.

But the Ravens have a lot to prepare for here as well. They are facing the league's best rushing team, at least as it is measured by yards per game and yards per carry. There may be areas in which the Browns are lacking, but they can run the ball. Make no mistake about that.

So this presents our scenario for the Sunday Night Football game televised by NBC. It takes place at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, kicking off at 8:20 PM ET.

Currently the Ravens (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) lead the AFC North by a half-game over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) went into Sunday's play as the last place team in the division, although Pittsburgh's loss to Cincinnati elevated them. But in terms of the battle for wild card spots, it's pretty much wide-open.

What's a little alarming if you're a Browns fan is the fact that they have scored more than 17 points just once in the last six games.

In the Sunday Night Football betting odds posted on this game, the Ravens are laying points at home:

Baltimore Ravens -3 (-113)
Cleveland Browns +3 (-107)

Over 47 points -115
Under 47 points -105

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It kind of looks as though a blueprint of sorts was laid out there for teams to attack Lamar Jackson, after the Miami Dolphins virtually shut the door on him with their Cover Zero scheme and all those safety blitzes. It has been calculated that Jackson throws for an average of 4.9 yards per attempt against it.

The problem with this being a plan for Cleveland is that they really don't blitz all that much. Their idea is that they can get enough of a push with their four guys, and those expectations are not unrealistic when you have Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett.

Ultimately that may or may not work, but ti is clear that under normal circumstances, Jackson has the physical tools to escape pass rushers. He is, in fact, averaging six yards a carry, and he is the best weapon the Ravens have in the running game. But the Baltimore offensive line has surrendered 34 sacks.

Last week Jackson was sick (not Covid-related, we're told), leaving Tyler Huntley in charge of the offense on the field. And the Ravens barely escaped with a 16-13 win over the Chicago Bears, where Andy Dalton had to come in and relieve Justin Fields, who got injured.

There are some things we are relatively certain of. Baker Mayfield has been dealing with nagging injuries, and he hasn't gotten a whole lot out of his wide receivers. And even when Odell Beckham Jr. was in Cleveland, they weren't clicking (Baker's fault, according to Odell's daddy).

But the Browns have a monster ground game. They are, in fact, #1 in the league in yards per game, at least before Sunday's action (they may have been surpassed by Philadelphia). Nick Chubb is right there with Jackson at six yards a carry, and he is one of the best in recent years when it comes to breaking tackles. The backfield is bolstered by the return of Kareem Hunt from the IR, and right tackle Jack Conklin has been cleared for this game as well.

The Ravens have some credentials on the defensive front, which not only leads the NFL in the metric of "Adjusted Line Yards" but also has the highest "Stuff Rate" in the league, which means that they hold a greater percentage of running plays to no gain or a loss (29%) than anybody else. In the open field, though, there is a problem, as only one team has performed at a lower level. That is because the Ravens are 31st in yards after contact per carry. So you can take your pick when figuring out which numbers actually mean something.

The drama here is provided by the fact that Jackson has not taken the field in a game since he was ravaged in Miami, so what the Browns will do and how he reacts is a subject of speculation. We know that the Ravens have allowed 11.7 yards per catch to tight ends, and Cleveland has a couple of guys who are pretty capable there (Austin Hooper, David Njoku). So we expect that they can move the ball, and may even get some action out of their wide receivers because of Baltimore's banged-up secondary situation. Remember that the last time he faced the Ravens, Mayfield threw for 343 yards. As for the defense, well, at least the Browns have a "blueprint."

We're willing to take some points in this game, and may even consider the Browns on the money line, with a small play on the "over' if you want to investigate a parlay.

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