Handicapping and Betting the 2019 Belmont Stakes

The Belmont Stakes card is horse racing heaven for serious horse players. Along with the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G2) in Race 11 with the two prohibitive favorites Tacitus (9-5) and Preakness winner War of Will (2-1), there are seven other Grade 1 races on Saturday’s card at Belmont Park. Leading up to NBC’s coverage of the Belmont Stakes, two other million dollar races will draw big betting action at the leading online sportsbooks.

The $1.2 million Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap (G1) for 3-year-olds and up is Race 9. The ‘Met Mile’ features McKinzie (5-2) as the favorite with three other past Kentucky Derby runners challenging – Firenze Fire (4-1), Thunder Snow (5-1) and Promises Fulfilled (12-1). McKinzie and Thunder Snow rate as win contenders and inclusions in your betting portfolio.   

Race 10 is the $1 million Manhattan Stakes (G1) for 4-year-olds and up going 1 ¼ miles on the inner turf course. If you don’t have access to the leading online sportsbooks to bet the races, then find Bricks and Mortar (7-5) at a casino and racebook and bet on him as the prohibitive favorite for trainer Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding in the 10 horse field. Robert Bruce (6-1) offers value as Chad Brown's other runner in the race and he should relish the distance with Jose Ortiz looking to beat his brother and pull the upset in the Manhattan. 

Back to the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes, and the two colts that will take a majority of the betting action are Tacitus (9-5) and War of Will (2-1), who we had as the Preakness winner in our preview. But we’re not playing WOW to win the Belmont, and will focus in on Tacitus and some longer shots including Intrepid Heart.

Tacitus looks tough as a key horse in here, although he's far from a dominate runner like recent Triple Crown winners Justify (2018) and American Pharoah (2015), who both went off at less than even money odds. So with Tacitus going off at 9-5 or less, he's offering little value. But if you like him to win, and he's a definite win contender, you can isolate him on top of your exotic wagers and add more horses for less cost underneath in exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagering. That's a better and less costly option than boxing 3-5 horses, and allows you more flexibility when wagering with a chance to add some bigger long shots like the two Todd Pletcher-trained colts Intrepid Heart (10-1) and Spinoff (15-1), who finished 2nd in the Louisiana Derby and is being sold a little short in the Belmont. Tacitus is conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who had Hofburg in here last year as a 3rd place finisher in Mott's 7th Belmont Stakes. Jose Ortiz is clearly one of the top jockey's in the country and a leading rider on the New York circuit as well. Ortiz is high on Tacitus, saying "he's the best horse in this race and training lights out." Jose Ortiz won the 2017 Belmont aboard Tapwrit, and Mott won in 2010 with Drosselmeyer. 

Also, Sir Winston has a solid shot to hit the board and complete trifecta and superfecta wagers at a price. But Intrepid Heart is the longer shot of interest with not only strong breeding on his sire side with Tapit, who also sired Tacitus, but the grinding style of runner that can make up ground with a top tandem of Pletcher and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez riding in his record 23rd Belmont. Pletcher has won the Belmont three times (2007 Rags to Riches, 2013 Palace Malice, 2017 Tapwrit) and finished 2nd seven times. Velazquez won the Belmont with Union Rags (2012) and the filly Rags to Riches (2007).

Let's hope the pedigree and power of this pair leads to payoffs with Tacitus and Intrepid Heart in the Belmont Stakes. 

Belmont Betting Angles

When you're watching the Belmont Stakes, know that long shot Joevia is likely to break to the early lead with current Belmont Park leading jockey Jose Lezcano aboard. And while race favorites generate a majority of the win wagering action, know that in the last 12 non-Triple Crown years of the Belmont Stakes, only two favorites have won the race - Afleet Alex (2005) and Point Given (2001) - and each won by more than 7 lengths. Six of the 12 winners were double-digit odds, so long shots can not only win, but score big payoffs in the exotic pools. War of Will is trying to become the first Belmont winner since Afleet Alex to capture the Preakness and Belmont after failing to win the Kentucky Derby.    

Four of the last five Belmont Stakes winners in non-Triple Crown winning years raced in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness. That profile fits Tacitus, Spinoff, Master Fencer and Tax. 

As we saw in the 2019 Preakness when 29-1 Everfast closed for 2nd by a nose to provide a big exacta, trifecta and huge superfecta payoff with War of Will the winner, the exotics can provide a big payoff when long shots hit the board even with one of the favorites winning the race. 

Belmont Stakes Betting Guide from TVG. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay