Milwaukee Brewers (Anderson) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Musgrove)
Game# 957-958

The MLB odds at 5Dimes has a posted total of 8.5 on this NL Central game. The weather forecast is calling for winds of 8 to 10 MPH blowing out to left center.

Chase Anderson will be making his first appearance against Pittsburgh this season. Anderson did start 3 times versus the Pirates last year and collected a sizable 6.32 ERA in those outings. Anderson has exhibited shaky form throughout his last 3 starting assignments while gathering a lofty 1.58 WHIP. Additionally, he never made it to the 5th inning on any of those occasions.

The Brewers have a very good .802 OPS thru their previous 7 games played. Milwaukee has also hit an impressive 1.64 home runs per game thus far in 2019. Conversely, Pittsburgh is 25-12 (67.6%) over the total this season when going against teams that average hitting 1.25 or more home runs per game.

The Pirates Joe Musgrove has been terrible in his last 5 starts. During that period Musgrove amassed a large 8.24 ERA. The Pirates right-handed hurler had a 6.94 ERA in 2 starts versus Milwaukee a season ago. This will be his first time facing the Brewers in 2019. Musgrove will have little confidence turning it over to his bullpen which has a staff ERA of 6.34 ERA over its last 7 games. Furthermore, Pittsburgh relievers allowed 8 home runs in 32 2/3 during that precise time frame.

Pittsburgh has witnessed only 6 of their previous 27 games staying under the total (22.2%). The Pirates have gone under in just 8 of their 24 home games (33.3%) this season.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

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New York Mets (Vargas) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Ryu)
Game# 959-960

Bookmaker is showing a total of 8.5 for this National League game. It’s worth noting, the total opened at 8.0 and has since moved to 8.5 despite 93% of public money being wagered on the under. This is a textbook case of reverse line movement.

Mets starter Jason Vegas has a poor 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP this year in 4 road starts. I would be remiss not to mention, 11 of Vargas’ 12 career starts against NL West Division teams have sailed over the total.

There’s no denying how superb the Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu has pitched this season. However, he’ll very likely need to rely on his bullpen tonight at some point. That’s a bit worrisome when taking into consideration that Dodgers relief pitchers have an alarmingly high 8.59 ERA over the course of their previous 7 games.

The Dodgers have surpassed the total in 9 straight games. Since 2017, Los Angeles has gone over the total in 9 of 10 home games versus New York.

The betting odds at Bovada are currently showing the Mets as a money line underdog of +230. Since 2017, the Mets have gone over in 17 of 19 games (89.5%) as a money line road underdog of +175 to +250.

Relative to the present total, I like this one to play out as a high scoring game. One of my MLB picks today will exemplify that prediction.

Pick: Over 8.5 (+100)

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com