Top-10 College Football Betting: Penn State at Ohio State Headlines College Football Playoff Push



FairwayJay provides handicapping and betting insight on the Penn State at Ohio State Top-10 Match-up

Betting tips for the BIG 10 matchup between Penn State and Ohio State

Just one major match-up in this week's College Football Playoff rankings as No. 8 Penn State tackles No. 2 Ohio State in Columbus. Kickoff is at 12:00 ET on Sat., Nov. 23 and FOX sports carries the TV coverage. At the leading online sportsbooks, this will be the biggest bet game on the college football card this week. 

In my recent article at Forbes, I provide more information and insight on the College Football Playoff rankings, and some of the additional college football rivalry match-ups ahead this weekend, including  Pac-12 rivals UCLA at USC (-13.5) and California at Stanford (-2.5) in the Big Game. You can check out the live odds and betting data on these games at Sports Insights, which tracks the consensus betting activity from seven leading online sportsbooks, including BookMaker and 5Dimes

College Football Playoff Rankings

Top 10 teams with a mathematical chance at the College Football Playoff from the stats and probability provided by fivethirtyeight.com. Clemson (90%), LSU (68%) and Ohio State (64%) are the prohibitive favorites to make the College Football Playoff.

1. LSU (10-0)                                6. Oregon (9-1)
2. Ohio State (10-0)                       7. Utah (9-1)
3. Clemson (11-0)                          8. Penn State (9-1)  
4. Georgia (9-1)                             9. Oklahoma (9-1)
5. Alabama (9-1)                           10. Minnesota (9-1)

Ohio State (10-0) leads the country in scoring averaging 51.5 points per game. The Buckeyes also lead the nation in total defense (236/game) and yards per play defense (3.3). All-American defensive end Chase Young returns to action this week after missing Ohio State's 56-21 win last week at Rutgers, when the Buckeyes were a 52-point favorite. Ohio State still piled up 600 yards offense and the Buckeyes are the nation's most efficient and balanced offense, currently averaging 288 rushing yards per game and 254 passing yards per game led by Heisman Trophy contender QB Justin Fields much of the season. Ohio State is the only team in the country that both runs and passes for at least 250 yards per game with Clemson and Oklahoma each averaging at least 240 rushing and passing yards per game. Complimented by the Buckeye's dominant defense that allows just 10 points per game and is No. 2 in the country in red zone defense, and you can see why bettors continue to put their money on the Buckeyes, who are 8-2 ATS this season after failing to cover the historic point spread against Rutgers. 

Ohio State Penn State free pickOhio State is currently taking 62% of the spread bets against Penn State from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks as tracked by Sports Insight's live odds and betting data

A big upset by Penn State over Ohio State this weekend would put the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Championship game, as long as they beat Rutgers next weekend. A win by Ohio State would secure the Big Ten East title for Ohio State regardless of the outcome of next week’s rivalry game at Michigan. Ohio State is currently 7-0 on conference play, while Penn State is 6-1. The Big Ten East winner plays Big Ten West champ, Minnesota or Wisconsin, in the Big Ten Championship game. 

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Stats and betting nuggets for Penn State at Ohio State 

* Ohio State ranks No. 1 in the country in scoring offense (51.5 PPG) and total team defense (216 yards per game and 3.3 yards per play). The Buckeye defense has held eight opponents to season low yards. 

* Ohio State ranks No. 2 in red zone defense and turnover margin.

* Ohio State is 0-6 ATS the last six years the game before they play rival Michigan. Each time the Buckeye’s were a double-digit favorite of at least 14 points including last year’s 52-51 overtime win over Maryland.

* Penn State has been out-gained in five of their 10 games this season.

* Penn State ranks top-7 in scoring defense (14 PPG) and rushing defense (84 YPG) - vs. FBS opponents. 

Penn State football Big 10 betting* Penn State coach James Franklin is 1-12 SU in his coaching career on the road versus ranked teams. He’s also 1-9-1 ATS on the road versus undefeated teams.

* Ohio State has won the last two meetings over Penn State in close contests - 39-38 in 2017 and last year 27-26 on the road as a 3.5-point favorite. But in 2016, the Buckeye's were upset by the Nittany Lions as a 19.5-point favorite, 24-21. Ohio State was ranked Top-6 in the AP Poll in each of those contests. 

While there are many bettors surprised by the three touchdown point spread favoring Ohio State, note that Top-10 teams installed as an underdog of 18 or more points are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS.

The odds are stacked against Penn State with 5Dimes showing the Nittany Lions at +18.5 with a moneyline of +700. Ohio State moneyline is -1100. We've been burned a few times by Ohio State, and did cash in two weeks ago with Minnesota (+6.5) outright over Penn State as part of our 3-0 'Dog log that week. Sure the Buckeyes are a juggernaut on both sides of the ball and they are going to have success passing again this week against a Lions pass defense that has allowed plenty of big pass plays in recent weeks. Ohio State is also tied for No. 2 in the country in turnover margin (+13). But Penn State's defensive front is also dominant, and if they can generate a few turnovers, it will certainly make this a more interesting and competitive contest. 

You can bet on it.    

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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