Marlins (Richards) @ Reds (Mahle) 6:40 PM ET
The current MLB odds at 5Dimes is indicating that there’s a total of 9.0 on this National League affair.
The Marlins Trevor Richards has been solid in his first 2 starts of this 2019 MLB campaign. Richards posted a more than respectable 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP during those outings. Richards has made 1 career start against the Reds and it occurred last September. The Miami right-hander held Cincinnati scoreless on 3 hits wile striking out 9 and walking only 1 through 7.0 innings of work.
Miami has struggled offensively throughout their previous 8 games. During that stretch, they’ve averaged a paltry 2.8 runs scored per game. The Marlins will be facing right-hander Tyler Mahle on Wednesday. They’ve faced right-handed starters 6 times this season and averaged only 2.0 runs scored per game while collecting a miserable .164 team batting average.
Speaking of Tyler Mahle, he was outstanding in his only start of 2019. Mahle allowed no earned runs on 5 hits while not walking a batter in 6.0 innings pitched at Pittsburgh.
Despite last night’s 14-0 win by the Reds, they’re still scoring just 3.5 runs scored per outing and it includes being shutout in 4 of their 10 games. Yesterday’s result was the first time in 6 home games that Cincinnati went over the total.
This total opened at 8.5 and quickly moved to 9.0 as a result of 68% of money being wagered on the over. I’m going with a contrarian approach in this instance.
Pick: Under 9.0 (-115)
Nationals (Hellickson) @ Phillies (Pivetta) 7:05 PM ET
Presently, Bookmaker is displaying a total of 9.0 on this NL East Division game.
Washington’s Jeremy Hellickson has made 1 career start at Philadelphia and it transpired last June. The Nationals right-hander allowed 3 earned runs on 7 hits while walking 2 in only 4 2/3 innings. That doesn’t exactly qualify as a quality start. Hellickson doesn’t figure to get much support from a Nationals bullpen which has a large 8.24 ERA thus far.
Philadelphia’s Nick Pivetta is 0-6 in his career team starts against Washington. During those outings, Pivetta compiled a lofty 6.51 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. Since the start of last season, Pivetta has gone 8-1 over in his starts when there was a total of 9.0 or 9.5, and it produced a combined average of 12.2 runs scored per game.
Both teams have generated plenty of offensive production to start the year. Washington has averaged 6.4 runs scored per game thru its previous 8 outings. On the other hand, Philadelphia is scoring a robust 6.3 runs per game this season.
Pick: Over 9.0 (-110)
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Yankees (Paxton) @ Astros (McHugh) 7:40 PM ET
Bovada is showing a total of 8.0 in this game between elite American League teams.
Southpaw James Paxton will be making his 3rd ever start as a member of the New York Yankees. Paxton had an uninspiring 4.09 ERA in his first 2 starts. However, he’s pitched extremely well during his career against Houston. Paxton has started 12 games against the Astros and had a sparkling 2.89 ERA in those outings. Furthermore, he started 4 times versus Houston last season and had a very impressive 2.05 ERA against a potent Astros lineup.
Houston’s Collin McHugh has been impressive in his first 2 starts of 2019 while amassing a 2.45 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Additionally, he’s gone 36-18 (66.7%) under in his career starts at home. McHugh will be facing a Yankees team which is averaging 1.55 home runs per game. The Astros right-hander is 10-0 under in his career starts at home against teams that average 1.25 or more home runs per game.
Both bullpens are among the finest in baseball. This game directly points to a low scoring output. One of my picks today on MLB totals will be reflective of that prognostication.
Pick: Under 8.0 (-105)