Which Non-Major Winners Are Best Bets To Win 2019 PGA Championship?



Professional handicapper FairwayJay chips in some thoughts and insight on non-major winners that have a solid shot to contend at the PGA Championship at Bethpage Black and break through at longer odds.

Time to tee it up at the 2019 PGA Championship. A hole-by-hole look at Bethpage Black shows the championship venue will present a tough test in what pro golfer Gary Woodland calls a “big boys” course. Demanding length and accuracy with plenty of drivers in hand, a key category of Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green is one to focus on when handicapping this year’s field.

Strokes gained: Tee-to-Green:  Strokes gained: off-the-tee + strokes gained: approach-the-green + strokes gained: around-the-green

When Lucas Glover won the 2009 U.S. Open at Bethpage Black, he ranked 8th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. His length was an advantage, and he used it to shock most everyone as a major winner at longshot odds of 250-1.

This season, three long shots have cashed at odds of greater than 100-1 since the Tiger Woods won the Masters — C.T. Pan in the RBC Heritage, Max Homa in the Wells Fargo Championship and Sung Kang last week in the Byron Nelson. All three were first-time PGA Tour winners.

This week our focus is on a potential first time Major winner with the game to handle Bethpage Black and provide some betting value and opportunities throughout the betting markets.

Bethpage Black will play to approximately 7,459 yards and Par 70, as one of the par 5’s (hole 7) will play as a long par 4 for the PGA Championship. In fact, there are three par 4’s that will play to greater than 500 yards – holes No. 7, 10 and 12 - and those will be among the toughest holes for the players this week. So watch closely as PGA players get to the weekend, and consider as you make win wagers on players with adjusted odds and for match-ups.

PGA Championship best betsPower, precision and self control will play a big part in the final outcome and which player hoists the Wanamaker Trophy. While the biggest bets and most wagers are supporting the favorites and past major winners Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and now Brooks Koepka, we’ll turn our attention to some solid contenders at longer odds that are searching for their first major victory. While last year’s PGA Championship at Bellerive was not one of them with repeat winner Brooks Koepka, who also won last year’s U.S. Open, we note some strong finishes in other tournaments and majors from some of the players below including 2018 U.S. Open runner-up Tommy Fleetwood. So Fairway’s Forecast and Foursome will focus on potential first time major winners at a price for the 2019 PGA Championship.

Betting a PGA Tournament and Major pre-flop or before the tournament offers less value and especially on the favorites. So we note too that 9 of the last 13 major championships were won by first time major winners, with repeat major winners Brooks Koepka and Tiger Woods winning the last two. You can bet tournament winners before they tee off Thursday, but also take note of the adjusted odds at the leading online sportsbooks following Thursday and Fridays’ rounds, and you may still see some of these players with a chance to score and win at decent odds.

Shop for the best odds to win the PGA Championship and other props and match-ups at the leading online sportsbooks.

Fairways Foursome – Odds from BookMaker and Betonline.ag

Here are 4 players we add to our bag with win wagers at mid-range to long odds.

Tommy Fleetwood (28-1) – Fleetwood is +550 to finish top-5 and +245 top-10 at the PGA Championship. He finished 2nd (+2) in 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock and fired a final round 63 to almost steal his first major in another demanding test that required strong driving skills. Fleetwood ranks No. 4 in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, No. 2 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and No. 2 in scrambling. He’s had top-5 finishes this year in the challenging tournaments at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and PLAYERS Championship which requires precision iron play, and also 2nd in the Zurich Classic partner event where he was stroking it beautifully and carrying his partner Sergio Garcia. Still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, Fleetwood has seven wins worldwide and is a contender at a price that you should be able to count on to perform well this week.

Jon Rahm (18-1) – Rahm is +373 to finish top-5 and +156 top-10 at the PGA Championship. He tied for 4th at last year’s PGA Championship and three top-10’s in the last five majors. The talented and big-hitting Spaniard is on the cusp of breaking through for his first major win. Rahm won the Zurich Classic in partnership with Ryan Palmer this season in his only start since finishing tied for 4th at the Masters. Rahm also won the Hero challenge in December and has added eight top-10 finishes on Tour in 2019. He’s strong from tee to green ranking No. 13 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, No. 2 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and a good enough scrambler around the greens ranking top-50. Does he have the mental makeup to meet his tremendous talent and strength/length? He appears ready to break through and Bethpage Black looks Taylor Made for his game.

PGA Championship longshot winnersPatrick Cantlay (40-1) – Cantlay is +805 to finish top-5 and +385 top-10 at the PGA Championship. He finished 9th at this year’s Masters, and Cantlay is seen as a real threat on Tour and he’s no longer a huge longshot at PGA Tournaments. Cantlay ranks No. 10 in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and No. 19 in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and No. 3 in scoring average and Scrambling (Around the Green). He has six top-10 finishes this year, but his tee-ball accuracy is a concern this week (56%). Still, his SG Tee-to-Green stats and ability to hit greens and score shows Cantlay is a top talent and threat to contend and win the biggest events.  

Hideki Matsuyama (42-1) – Matsuyama is +931 to finish top-5 and +405 top-10 at the PGA Championship. He’s finished top-5 in two of the last three PGA Championships including in 2016 at Baltusrol, which also has Poa Annua greens like Bethpage Black. Matsuyama is back in solid form and ranks No. 3 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, No. 26 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, No. 6 in Scrambling, and No. 18 Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Overlay on a top proven pro capable of winning his first major.

Big Bertha Bomb in the Bag

Joost Luiten - Black Page Black is a big bomber course and demanding both physically and mentally. European Tour player Joost (like Ghost) Luiten has the game to compete here and can be found at 250-1 or 300-1 for those looking to add a bomb in their bag. Luiten tied for 33rd at the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltusrol, which has similar Poa Annua greens, and his 5-under final round 65 was the best of the day. Luiten has five top-12 finishes this year including in his one PGA Tour start when he finished T10 in the WGC Mexico Championship with a final round 64 in an event that Dustin Johnson won and Rory McIlroy was runner-up. Luiten can clearly play.  

Honorable mention and worthy win wagers on other top players looking for their first major win who also have statistical profiles to support solid play at Bethpage if they can keep the ball in play off the tee.

Rickie Fowler (20-1), Xander Schauffele (26-1), Tony Finau (39-1), Paul Casey (53-1), Jason Kokrak (80-1), Aaron Wise (125-1) Jhonattan Vegas (125-1), Scott Piercy (125-1), Ryan Moore (125-1).

72 hole Match-up Plays – Henrik Stenson (-110) over Bubba Watson and Louis Oosthuizen (-113) over Bubba Watson. We’ll dig into our bag for past Major winners in match-ups. Both Stenson (71.5%) and Oosthuizen (68%) are top-30 on Tour in driving accuracy, which will be another key factor this week. Bubba’s struggles with accuracy from the tee ranking No. 158 at 58.8% will make it tougher on him to hit greens consistently or score well.

Prop Bet – Winning Score OVER 271.5 (Less than 9 under par)

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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